ETFs
ProShares UltraPro QQQ ETF: Beware of Tail Risks (NASDAQ: TQQQ)

index charts including the NASDAQ Composite
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ProShares UltraPro QQQ ETF (NASDAQ:TQQQ) is one of the most popular leveraged ETFs on the market. By giving you three times the daily net asset value return of the NASDAQ-100 Index (before fees), it has the potential to perform very well in tech bull markets. However, when looking at the price history of TQQQ, we immediately notice something peculiar: the fund is off compared to its 2021 highs, even though the NASDAQ-100 has set new highs this year.
TQQQ vs QQQ Chart (Looking for Alpha Quant)
How is it that the TQQQ has been declining since 2021, while the NASDAQ-100 is increasing in the same period? It appears that UltraPro QQQ’s performance was lower than the index’s performance, rather than three times the index’s performance.
Well, if you look at the fund fact sheet, you will immediately see part of the problem: the costs. UltraPro QQQ charges a net fee of 0.88%, which isn’t exorbitant, but high enough to have a measurable impact on returns. These include more than four times the fees charged by Invesco’s unleveraged companies. Trust QQQ (QQQ) ETF Fees. This will have an effect on returns, you can be sure of that.
The real issue, however, is how exactly UltraPro QQQ delivers its “three times QQQ before fees” return. For an asset to deliver a multiple of another asset consistently, it must use leverage. Borrowed money is the most common form of leverage. There are others. For example, options have implied leveragebecause their “multiple of asset return or nothing” risk/reward profile is similar to that of purchasing an asset with borrowed funds.
In TQQQ’s 2023 Annual Report, ProShares CEO Marc Sapir listed leverage – particularly the increasing cost of leverage – as a risk factor for its fund. Between early 2022 and mid-2023, interest rates rose from near zero to 5%. This means that the cost of borrowing and using TQQQ derivatives has increased. As a result, it now costs more than in 2021, up to 3 times the QQQ yield before fees and interest. The result was that TQQQ not only did not triple the return of QQQ, but its price fell at the same time that QQQ rose!
In a recent article, I wrote that the Invesco QQQ Trust was investable despite its spectacular growth over the course of a year. My reasoning was that QQQ was worth the high multiples it was trading at because its major components were growing rapidly. I always think this way. However, I don’t think current market conditions are appropriate for leveraged bets on big tech stocks, because there is some risk in the big tech stocks themselves, and leverage has become expensive over the past two years. For this reason, I take a dimmer view of TQQQ than QQQ itself, as it risks underperforming after fees.
The costs of leverage
If you look at the TQQQ chart over a normal time frame, you will see that it does not actually triple the return of QQQ. Below I have compiled charts of QQQ and TQQQ over 12-month, five-year, and 10-year periods. As you can see, TQQQ’s returns ranged between 249% and 565% of those of QQQ. Over a 10-year period, performance was more more than three times that of QQQ, but this does not reflect a 3 times higher return on a compound annual basis (“CAGR”). On a CAGR basis, TQQQ grew 2.4 times faster than QQQ over 10 years, which is consistent with the one-year return shown below.
TQQQ vs QQQ Returns (Charts from Google Finance and Seeking Alpha Quant, author labels)
The question is: why is this happening? Although a 0.88% management fee represents a substantial cost, it cannot by itself explain why UltraPro QQQ only provides 5/6ths of the return it is expected to produce. This certainly doesn’t explain the fund’s decline from its 2021 highs, while QQQ itself is down. up 11.5% from these levels.
A big part of the problem is the cost of all that leverage. When interest rates rise, loans become more expensive and call option premiums increase. In June 2014, when the TQQQ increased by 2,000%, interest rates were close to 0%. They remained low through the end of 2021. This likely had a major influence on UltraPro QQQ’s 10-year performance. TQQQ’s underperformance relative to QQQ from November 2021 to today almost perfectly tracks the rise in interest rates from January 2022 to June 2023. ProShares executives even highlighted this fact in their 2023 annual report, in which interest rate increases were cited as a risk factor for UltraPro QQQ.
So what does UltraPro QQQ actually pay in option premiums and interest? This is not disclosed anywhere in the fund’s prospectus, although the document states that these costs are Do not be part of of the reported expense ratio of 0.88%.
TQQQ Costs (ProShares)
Although the total cost of TQQQ’s debt and derivatives is not publicly available, the parent company’s recent annual report contains some details on the costs of specific instruments purchased or borrowed by UltraPro QQQ. These included:
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Rates average around 5.5% on swaps.
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Quarterly exposure to derivatives at 240%.
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435 long futures contracts with $120 million notional principal.
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$39 billion notional principal on swaps – higher than fund assets under management!
The amount of these instruments and the rates paid on the swaps together indicate that the total expenses of UltraPro QQQ are well above the 0.88% announced. The company itself says so, and a 0.88% management fee alone would not explain TQQQ’s performance after 2021. It would seem likely that the true cost of running UltraPro QQQ is between 5% and 6%.
NAV calculated daily
Another factor that may cause the TQQQ’s performance to differ from that of the Index is the daily calculation of the NAV. If the price of QQQ fell 33% in a single day, the fund’s net asset value would fall to near zero and investors would be wiped out. The fund’s prospectus clearly states this.
Now, the chances of the NASDAQ-100 falling in value by 33% in a single day are pretty low, but the logic above helps illustrate why the UltraPro QQQ sometimes deviates from the “3X” return it targets to offer. Mainly, the fact that the fund is designed to provide this tripling on a daily basis. This is not the same as a 3X return over an investor’s entire holding period. If the price of the NASDAQ-100 were to fall by 33.33% in a single day, then the TQQQ would likely go to zero and thus provide a return of -100%, which would in effect be three times the return of the NASDAQ-100 for this day. However, all of the fund’s assets would be wiped out and investors would not experience the subsequent rise in the index: three times zero equals zero. Smaller variations from this extreme scenario explain why TQQQ returns are not three times those of the index over all periods.
TQQQ Leverage Risk (ProShares)
Why I don’t recommend going long TQQQ at this time
UltraPro QQQ has been a great buy at times in the past. If you bought the fund when it was created in 2010 and held it until today, you would gain several thousand percentage points.
Knowing this, why do I advise against purchasing TQQQ today?
Mainly because the extreme magnitude of leverage and its increasing cost argue in favor of such a practice. At today’s prices, the NASDAQ-100 is trading at 32.9 times earnings, which is near the upper end of its 10-year range. If history is any indication, then the price of QQQ needs to fall to trade at its usual valuation.
Today, the current market situation is unique, with generative AI generating huge growths, especially for chipmakers like Nvidia (NVDA). This is why I rated QQQ a Buy in my last coverage. I knew the multiples were high when I wrote this article, but I still considered it a buy because I believed that just two years of growth at the rate we’ve seen lately would allow QQQ to catch up its valuation.
But even though I considered QQQ a Buy the last time I talked about it, I don’t think its leveraged cousin is a Buy today. For what? Well, as I explored in detail in this article, TQQQ has become more expensive to operate. Its past performance may therefore not be indicative of its future performance.
Specifically, I rated QQQ a “buy” rather than “strong buy” for a reason. I only had a small amount of belief in the call, and I didn’t really negotiate on it myself. I think there is a significant possibility that the price of Invesco QQQ Trust will decline over the next year. I think the chances of positive capital appreciation over the next year are higher, but not by much. Thus, an unleveraged position in QQQ with a modest portfolio weighting is justifiable for an investor with above-average risk tolerance and ability to bear risk.
But my conviction here is not high enough to justify a leveraged bet, and the many worst-case scenarios such bets expose investors to. My overall opinion on TQQQ is therefore neutral. It could really rebound in a best-case scenario, but TQQQ’s many risks outweigh the benefits of going long the fund with a heavy portfolio weighting as of today’s price.
ETFs
Missed the Bull Market Resumption? 3 ETFs to Help You Build Wealth for Decades

The market’s rebound from the 2022 bear market was not only unexpected. It was also bigger than expected. S&P 500 The stock price is up 60% from the bear market low, despite no clear signs at the time that such a rally was in the works. Chances are you missed at least part of this current rally.
If so, don’t be discouraged: you’re in good company. You’re also far from financially ruined. While you can’t go back and make up for the missed opportunity, for long-term investors, the growth potential is much greater.
If you want to make sure you don’t miss the next big bull run, you might want to tweak your strategy a bit. This time around, you might try buying fewer stocks and focusing more on exchange traded funds (or ETFs), which are often easier to hold when things get tough for the overall market.
With that in mind, here’s a closer look at three very different ETFs to consider buying that could – collectively – complement your portfolio brilliantly.
Let’s start with the basics: dividend growth
Most investors naturally favor growth, choosing growth stocks to achieve that goal. And the strategy usually works. However, most long-term investors may not realize that they can get the same type of net return with boring dividend stocks like the ones held in the portfolio. Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (NYSEMKT: VIG) which reflects the S&P US Dividend Growth Index.
As the name suggests, this Vanguard fund and its underlying index hold stocks that not only pay consistent dividends, but also have a history of consistently increasing dividends. To be included in the S&P US Dividend Growers Index, a company must have increased its dividend every year for at least the past 10 years. In most cases, however, they have been doing so for much longer.
The ETF’s current dividend yield of just under 1.8% isn’t exactly exciting. In fact, it’s so low that investors might wonder how this fund is keeping up with the broader market, let alone growth stocks. What’s being grossly underestimated here is the sheer magnitude of these stocks. dividend growthOver the past 10 years, its dividend per share has nearly doubled, and more than tripled from 15 years ago.
The reason is that solid dividend stocks generally outperform their non-dividend-paying counterparts. Calculations by mutual fund firm Hartford indicate that since 1973, S&P 500 stocks with a long history of dividend growth have averaged a single-digit annual return, compared with a much more modest 4.3% annual gain for non-dividend-paying stocks, and an average annual return of just 7.7% for an equal-weighted version of the S&P 500. The numbers confirm that there’s a lot to be said for reliable, consistent income.
The story continues
Then add capital appreciation through technology
That said, there’s no particular reason why your portfolio can’t also hold something a little more volatile than a dividend-focused holding. If you can stomach the volatility that’s sure to continue, take a stake in the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQ).
This Invesco ETF (often called the “cubes” or the triple-Q) is based on the Nasdaq-100 index. Typically, this index consists of 100 of the Nasdaq Composite IndexThe index is one of the largest non-financial indices at any given time. It is updated quarterly, although extreme imbalance situations may result in unplanned rebalancing of the index.
That’s not what makes this fund a must-have for many investors, though. It turns out that most high-growth tech companies choose to list their shares through the Nasdaq Sotck exchange rather than other exchanges like the New York Stock Exchange or the American Stock ExchangeNames like Apple, MicrosoftAnd Nvidia are not only Nasdaq-listed securities. They are also the top holdings of this ETF, with Amazon, Meta-platformsand Google’s parent company AlphabetThese are of course some of the highest-yielding stocks on the market in recent years.
This won’t always be the case. Just as companies like Nvidia and Apple have squeezed other names out of the index to make room for their stocks, these current names could also be replaced by other names (although it will likely be a while before that happens). It’s the proverbial life cycle of the market.
This shift, however, will likely be driven by technology companies that are offering revolutionary products and services. Owning a stake in the Invesco QQQ Trust is a simple, low-cost way to ensure you’re invested in at least most of their stocks at the perfect time.
Don’t forget indexing, but try a different approach
Finally, while Triple-Q and Vanguard Dividend Appreciation funds are smart ways to diversify your portfolio over the long term, the good old indexing strategy still works. In other words, rather than risk underperforming the market by trying to beat it, stick to tracking the long-term performance of a broad stock index.
Most investors will opt for something like the SPDR S&P 500 Exchange Traded Fund (NYSEMKT:SPY), which of course mirrors the large-cap S&P 500 index. And if you already own one, great: stick with it.
If and when you have some spare cash to put to good use, consider starting a mid-cap funds as the iShares Core S&P Mid-Cap ETF (NYSEMKT: IJH) instead. Why? Because you’ll likely get better results with this ETF than you will with large-cap index funds. Over the past 30 years, S&P 400 Mid-Cap Index significantly outperformed the S&P 500.
^MID Chart
The disparate degree of gains actually makes sense. While no one disputes the solid foundations on which most S&P 500 companies are built, they are in many ways victims of their own size: It’s hard to get bigger when you’re already big. This is in contrast to the mid-cap companies that make up the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index. These organizations have moved past their rocky, shaky early years and are just entering their era of high growth. Not all of them will survive this phase, but companies like Advanced microsystems And Super microcomputer Those that survive end up being incredibly rewarding to their patient shareholders.
Should You Invest $1,000 in iShares Trust – iShares Core S&P Mid-Cap ETF Right Now?
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John Mackey, former CEO of Amazon’s Whole Foods Market, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Randi Zuckerberg, former director of market development and spokesperson for Facebook and sister of Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. James Brumley has positions in Alphabet. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Advanced Micro Devices, Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Vanguard Specialized Funds – Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF. The Motley Fool recommends Nasdaq and recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a position in Advanced Micro Devices, Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Vanguard Specialized Funds – Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF. The Motley Fool recommends Nasdaq and recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. disclosure policy.
Missed the Bull Market Resumption? 3 ETFs to Help You Build Wealth for Decades was originally published by The Motley Fool
ETFs
This Simple ETF Could Turn $500 a Month Into $1 Million

This large-cap ETF offers investors the potential for above-market returns while minimizing risk.
It’s always inspiring to hear stories of people who invested in a company and made tons of money as the company grew and became successful. While these stories are a testament to the power of investing, they can also be misleading. That’s not because it doesn’t happen often, but because you don’t have to make a big splash on a single company to make a lot of money in the stock market.
Invest regularly in exchange traded funds (AND F) is a great way to build wealth. ETFs allow you to invest in dozens, hundreds, and sometimes thousands of companies in a single investment. For investors looking for an ETF that can help them become millionaires, look no further than the Vanguard Growth ETFs (VUG 0.61%).
A history of outperforming the market
Since its launch in January 2004, this ETF has outperformed the market (based on S&P 500 Back), with an average total return of around 11.6%. The returns are even more impressive when looking back over the past decade, with the ETF posting an average total return of around 15.7%.
Total VUG Performance Level data by YCharts
The ETF’s past success doesn’t mean it will continue on this path, but for the sake of illustration, let’s take a middle ground and assume it averages about 13% annual returns over the long term. Averaging those returns, monthly investments of $500 could top the $1 million mark in just over 25 years.
Assuming (emphasis on the word “assume”) that the ETF continues to generate an average total return of 15.7% over the past decade, investing $500 a month could get you past $1 million in about 23 years. At an annual return of 11.6%, that would take nearly 28 years.
There is no way to predict the future performance of the ETF, but the most important thing is the power of time and Compound profit. Earning $1 million by saving alone is a difficult and unachievable task for most people. However, it becomes much more achievable if you give yourself time and make regular investments, no matter how small.
So why choose the Vanguard Growth ETF?
This ETF can offer investors the best of both worlds. On the one hand, since it only contains large cap stocksIt offers more stability and less volatility than you typically find with smaller growth stocks. At the other end, the focus on growth means it is built with the goal of outperforming the market.
Investing involves a tradeoff between risk and return, and this ETF falls somewhere in the middle for the most part. That’s not just because it only contains large-cap stocks. It’s also because large-cap stocks are leading the way. Here are the ETF’s top 10 holdings:
- Microsoft: 12.60%
- Apple: 11.51%
- Nvidia: 10.61%
- Alphabet (both share classes): 7.54%
- Amazon: 6.72%
- Meta-platforms: 4.21%
- Eli Lilly: 2.88%
- You’re here: 1.98%
- Visa: 1.72%
The Vanguard Growth ETF is not as diversified as other broad ETFs, with the top 10 holdings making up nearly 60% of the fund and the “The Magnificent Seven” with stocks accounting for about 55%. However, many of these companies (particularly mega-cap technology stocks) have been among the best performers in the stock market over the past decade and still have great growth opportunities ahead of them.
MSFT Total Return Level data by YCharts
Big tech stocks are expected to continue to see growth in areas such as cloud computing, artificial intelligenceand cybersecurity; Eli Lilly will benefit from advances in biotechnologyTesla is one of the leaders in electric vehicles, which are still in the early stages of development; and Visa is expected to be one of the forerunners as the world moves toward more digital payments.
ETF concentration adds risk, especially if Microsoft, Apple or Nvidia is experiencing a slowdownBut these companies are well positioned to drive long-term growth despite any short-term setbacks that may arise. Consistent investments over time in the Vanguard Growth ETF should pay off for investors.
Randi Zuckerberg, former head of market development and spokesperson for Facebook and sister of Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Stefon Walters has positions in Apple and Microsoft. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, Vanguard Index Funds-Vanguard Growth ETF, and Visa. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a position in shares of Apple and Microsoft. disclosure policy.
ETFs
Ethereum ETFs Could Bring in $1 Billion a Month

In a recent interview with Bloomberg, Kraken’s chief strategy officer Thomas Perfumo predicted that Ethereum ETFs could attract between $750 million and $1 billion in monthly investments.
“Market sentiment is being priced in. I think the market has priced in something like $750 million to $1 billion of net inflows into Ethereum ETF products each month,” Perfumo said.
In the interviewPerfumo noted that if inflows exceed expectations, it could provide strong support to the industry and potentially drive Ethereum to new record highs.
This creates positive support for the industry, if we go beyond that, note that Bitcoin was at a rate above $2.5 billion
He said
Moreover, the hype around Ethereum ETFs has already sparked some optimism among investors. After the SEC approved the 19b-4 filing, Ethereum’s price jumped 22%, attracting investment into crypto assets.
This price movement shows how sensitive the market is to regulatory changes and the growth potential once ETFs are approved.
Perfumo also highlighted other factors supporting current market sentiment, including the upcoming US elections and a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Recent US CPI data suggests disinflation on a monthly and annual basis, with some traditional firms predicting rate cuts as early as September.
These broader economic factors, combined with developments in the crypto space, are shaping the overall market outlook.
Regarding Kraken’s strategy, Perfumo highlighted the exchange’s goal of driving cryptocurrency adoption through strategic initiatives. When asked about rumors of Kraken going public, he reiterated that the company’s intention is instead to broaden cryptocurrency adoption.
Read also : Invesco, Galaxy Cut Ether ETF Fees to 0.25% in Competitive Market
ETFs
Kraken Executive Expects Ethereum ETF Launch to “Lift All Boats”

Kraken Chief Strategy Officer Thomas Perfumemo said: Ethereum ETFs (ETH) could help the crypto sector while commenting on political developments in the United States.
On July 12, Perfumo told Bloomberg that spot Ethereum ETFs would attract capital flows while drawing attention to crypto, noting:
“It’s a rising tide, which lifts the whole history of the boat.”
Perfumo further explained that the final value of Ethereum “depends on the Ethereum ETF.”
He said the cryptocurrency market is “pricing in” between $750 million and $1 billion in net inflows into Ethereum products on a monthly basis, which would imply that Ethereum could reach all-time highs between $4,000 and $5,000.
Perfumo also compared expectations to Bitcoin’s all-time high in March, which he called a “silent spike” that occurred without any evidence of millions of new investors entering the industry.
Political evolution
Perfumo also commented on political developments. At the beginning of the interview, he said that the results of the US elections “will set the tone for policymaking and the legislative agenda for the next four years.”
He also stressed the importance of legislative action and clarity and noted that recent developments show bipartisan support in Congress.
The House recently voted to pass the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act (FIT21) and attempted to repeal controversial SEC accounting rules with the Senate. However, the president Joe Biden Chosen to veto The resolution.
Perfume said:
“Even if you encounter obstacles at the executive level, [there’s] “There is still good progress to come.”
He added that the Republican Party appears “more pro-crypto.” [and] “more progressive” on the issue, noting Donald Trump plans to attend the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville.
Trump has also made numerous statements in support of pro-crypto policy, including at recent campaign events in Wisconsin And San Francisco.
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