News
What to know this week
Actions closed another week close to record highs While the Latest jobs report showed a U.S. job market that is cooling, but not at a rate that economists find worrying.
The Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) rose about 2.3%, and the S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose around 1.3%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose around 0.3%.
Highlights of the week include the Federal Reserve’s June meeting and a key inflation reading on Wednesday. The first consumer sentiment reading for June is also expected on Friday.
In corporate news, Big Tech will start the week with Nvidia (NVDA) 10-for-1 stock split and Apple (AAPL) Worldwide Developers Conference scheduled for Monday. A vote on Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk’s $56 billion pay package is expected on Thursday.
About that, chaotic movements in GameStop stock (GME) continued to attract investor attention as the return of Keith Gill, a popular leader of the 2021 meme stock frenzy, reignited interest.
The Fed, inflation and the path of interest rates
Friday’s May Jobs Report showed more job additions than expectedadding fuel a common narrative from Federal Reserve officials that the labor market remains on a solid enough basis to maintain interest rates at their current restrictive levels. And for economists, the latest data only underscores that the Fed needs to see inflation decline further before cutting rates.
“Policymakers will need to see some slower inflation reports over the summer to begin cutting rates in the fall,” Wells Fargo senior economist Sarah House wrote in a research note Friday.
The next inflation update is expected on Wednesday morning, with the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May. Wall Street expects a 3.4% annual gain for the core CPI, which includes food and energy prices, unchanged from April. Prices are expected to rise 0.1% month-on-month, down from 0.3% in April.
On a “core” basis, which excludes volatility in food and energy prices, inflation is expected to have increased 3.5% year on year, a slowdown from the 3.6% increase seen in April. Monthly base price increases are expected to be 0.3%, unchanged from the previous month.
The release will come just hours before the Fed’s latest policy decision, where markets largely expect the central bank to keep rates unchanged. This shifts the main focus to the Fed’s latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) – including its “dot plot,” which maps policymakers’ expectations about the direction interest rates might take in the future – as well as comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
The story continues
JPMorgan chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli expects the Fed to project a median of two interest rate cuts this year in its dot plot, down from three in March. Regarding Powell’s comment, Feroli believes Powell’s communicator will be seen as “peaceful.”
“At the press conference, we expect Chairman Powell to express confidence that the economy is still on track and that the FOMC can be patient to gain confidence that inflation is heading toward 2%,” Feroli wrote in a note to clients on Friday. .
Less cuts, no problems
Before Friday’s jobs report, the market was forecasting two rate cuts this year. After the release, this number fluctuated between one and two, according to data from Bloomberg.
Notably, though, this change is a 15 basis point jump in the 10-year Treasury yield (^ TNX) to 4.43% did little to deter investor optimism as the S&P 500 closed near a record high on Friday.
Lauren Goodwin, economist and chief market strategist at New York Life Investments told Yahoo Finance This may be because the stronger-than-expected jobs report is good news for the economy and “markets have been very focused on growth.”
She added that given the solid earnings outlook expected for the rest of this year and a solid growth trajectory for the economy, markets can take the Fed’s reassessment “in stride.”
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell listens to a meeting of the Financial Stability Oversight Council at the Treasury Department on May 10, 2024, in Washington, D.C. (Kent Nishimura/Getty Images) (Kent Nishimura via Getty Images)
Apple’s WWDC
Apple’s Worldwide Developers Conference is set to begin on Monday, with investors hoping for more details to be released about the tech giant’s push into generative AI.
After a difficult start to the year, shares rose more than 7% in the last month before the event and recently turned positive for the year.
Yahoo Finance’s Dan Howley has a full preview of the event.
More Nvidia Stocks
Nvidia shares are expected to begin trading on Monday on a new 10-for-1 split basis, revising the share price from its Friday close of $1,208.88 to $120.88. The split means that owners of Nvidia common stock at market close on Thursday received 10 shares for every share they held. For example, if a shareholder owned four shares of Nvidia on Thursday, they will now own 40 shares after the split.
Typically, stock splits are seen by investors as a sign of strength, and consequently, companies that split their shares typically outperform the S&P 500 in the year following their announcement.
On average, shares rise 25% in the 12 months following a split announcement, compared with an average return of 12% for the S&P 500 over the same period, according to Bank of America analysis. This has been true “across market regimes,” wrote Jared Woodard, investment and ETF strategist at BofA, in a note to clients.
Notably, the trend includes the period from 2000 to 2009, amid the unfolding of the technology bubble. Since Nvidia announced its split on May 22, shares have risen about 27%.
Musk’s money
Tesla’s annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for after the market closes on Thursday, and the most pressing issue will be shareholder vote in a potential $56 billion pay package for CEO Elon Musk.
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas said he advised investors to pay close attention to the vote as it will have “importance for the company’s long-term strategic direction.”
He added: “While it is impossible to predict the outcome, we expect the event could potentially generate significant volatility in TSLA shares.”
In a survey of 109 investors, Morgan Stanley found that most investors feel approving Musk’s pay package would boost Tesla shares, while a vote not to approve would weigh on the stock. Entering the meeting, Tesla shares were down nearly 30% this year.
Weekly Calendar
Monday
Economic data: New York Fed One-Year Inflation Expectations May (3.26% previously)
Earnings: No notable gains.
Tuesday
Economic data: NFIB Small Business Optimism, May (89.5 expected, 89.7 previously)
Earnings: Gym for sports and outdoor activities (ASO), Casey (CASY), Oracle (ORCL)
Wednesday
Economic data: Consumer Price Index, month over month, May (+0.1% expected, +0.3% previously); Core CPI, month-over-month, May (+0.3% expected, +0.3% previously); CPI, year-over-year, May (+3.4% expected, +3.4% previously); Core CPI, year-over-year, May (+3.5% expected, +3.6% previously); Average real hourly earnings, year on year, May (+0.5% previously); MBA mortgage applications, week ending June 7 (-5.2% previously); FOMC Rate Decision (No Change in 5.25% to 5.5% Range Expected)
Earnings: Broadcom (AVGO), Dave and Buster (TO PLAY), Vera Bradley (VRA)
Thursday
Economic data: Initial unemployment claims, week ending June 8 (223,000 expected, 229,000 previously); Producer Price Index, month-on-month, May (+0.1% expected, +0.5% previously); PPI, year-over-year, May (+2.5% expected, 2.2% previously);
Earnings: Adobe (ADBE), Lovesac (LOVE), HR (HR), Signet Jewelers (GIS)
Friday
Economic data: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, June Preliminary (72.8 expected, +69.1 previously) Import Prices, Month-over-Month, May (+0.1% expected, +0.9% previously); Export prices, month-over-month, May (+0.2% expected, +0.5% previously)
Earnings: No notable gains.
Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.
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The spotlight next week will shift somewhat to the Federal Reserve’s second-quarter earnings season and monetary policy. Market watchers will be treated to results from several major names, including Dow 30 components Goldman Sachs (GS), UnitedHealth (UNH), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and American Express (AXP), along with streaming giant Netflix (NFLX).
The Fed will still attract some attention as investors will be eager to hear from a packed lineup of central bank speakers just before the policy meeting lockout period.
In terms of the economic calendar, after fifteen days of labor market and inflation indicators, activity data will gain momentum in the form of the latest retail sales and industrial production reports.
Earnings Highlight: Monday, July 15 – Goldman Sachs (GS) and BlackRock (Black). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Tuesday, July 16 – UnitedHealth (UNH), Bank of America (BAC), Progressive (PGR), Morgan Stanley (IN), PNC Financial (PNC) and JB Hunt Transport (JBHT). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Wednesday, July 17 – Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), US Bancorp (USB), Morgan Children (KMI), United Airlines (UAL) and Ally Financial (ALLY). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Thursday, July 18 – Netflix (NFLX), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Black stone (BX), Domino’s pizza (ZDP) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Friday, July 19 – American Express (AXP), Halliburton (THANKS) and Travelers (VRT (return to recoverable value)) See the full earnings calendar.
IPO Observation: Hospital and healthcare clinic operator Ardent Health Partners (TARDT), insurance service provider Twfg (TWFG) and the biotechnology company Lirum Therapeutics (LRTX) are expected to price their IPOs and begin trading next week. The analyst quiet period ends at Rectitude (RECT) to free up analysts to publish ratings.
Police cars outside the residence of Thomas Matthew Crooks, the suspected shooter at a Trump rally on Saturday, investigate the area in Pennsylvania. Following the incident, one rally attendee was killed, two rally attendees are in critical condition and Donald Trump suffered a non-fatal gunshot wound. The shooter is dead after being shot dead by the United States Secret Service. (Photo by Kyle Mazza/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Investors will initially favor traditional safe-haven assets and may lean toward trades more closely tied to former President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the White House after he survived an assassination attempt, according to market watchers.
“There will undoubtedly be some protectionist or safe-haven flows into Asia early this morning,” said Nick Twidale, chief market analyst at ATFX Global Markets. “I suspect gold could test all-time highs, we’ll see the yen being bought and the dollar, and flows into Treasuries as well.”
Early market commentary suggested Trump’s shooting at a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday could also prompt traders to increase his likelihood of success in the November election. His support for looser fiscal policy and higher tariffs is generally seen as likely to benefit the dollar and weaken Treasuries.
An indicator of market sentiment heading into the weekend: Bitcoin surged above $60,000, likely reflecting Trump’s pro-crypto stance.
Other assets positively linked to the so-called Trump trade include stocks of energy companies, private prisons, credit card companies and health insurers.
Traders will also be closely watching market measures of expected volatility on Monday, such as those in the tariff-sensitive Chinese yuan and Mexican peso, which have begun to price in the U.S. vote.
Trump said he was shot in the right ear after a shooting at his rally. His campaign said in a statement that he was “fine” after the incident, which prompted him to rush off the stage.
“Currencies will be the first major market on Monday in Asia to react to the weekend’s shots. There’s potential for extra volatility, and getting a clear reading could be especially difficult because liquidity will be hurt by Japan’s national holiday,” said Garfield Reynolds, Asia team leader for Bloomberg Markets Live.
Strategists had already expected a volatile run-up to the election, particularly as Democrats are still agonizing over President Joe Biden’s candidacy after his poor performance in last month’s debate raised questions about his age. Investors were also grappling with the possibility that the election could end in a drawn-out dispute or political violence.
But there is little precedent for events like those in Pennsylvania. When President Ronald Reagan was shot four decades ago, the stock market plunged before closing early. The next day, March 31, 1981, the S&P 500 rose more than 1% and benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell 9 basis points to 13.13%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Bond investors should pay particular attention as the attack is likely to boost Trump’s election chances and ultimately lead to concerns about the fiscal outlook, according to Marko Papic, chief strategist at California-based BCA Research Inc.
“The bond market must at some point become aware of President Trump’s greater chances of winning the White House than any of his rivals,” Papic wrote. “And I continue to believe that as his chances increase, so too must the likelihood of a bond market revolt.”
Kyle Rodda, senior financial markets analyst at Capital.com, said he was seeing client flows into Bitcoin and gold following the shooting.
“This news marks a turning point in American policy norms,” he said. “For markets, it means safe-haven trades, but more tilted toward non-traditional safe-havens.”
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Latest news on July 11, 2024: Airtel says its new Xstream Fiber plans bundle over 350 live TV channels (Official Photo) (Reuters) Disclaimer: This is an AI-generated live blog and has not been edited by Hindustan Times staff.
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News / Business / Latest Business News Live Updates Today, July 11, 2024
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News
Jio Financial share price: Should you buy this Reliance group stock on Monday ahead of Q1 FY2024 results?
Q1 2024 Results: Jio Financial Share Price will be in focus on Monday as the Reliance Group company has a fixed board meeting on July 15, 2024 to consider and approve the company’s unaudited standalone and consolidated financial results. Trust Group company informed about the Q1 2024 Results date on Wednesday last week via an exchange filing. According to stock market experts, Jio Financial Services Limited is poised to deliver impressive Q1 results for FY25 on solid operating income. They have forecast a healthy QoQ PAT for the company in Q1 FY25.
Jio Financial Services News
Speaking on the Jio Financial Services Q1 2024 results, Manish Chowdhury, Head of Research, StoxBox, said, “We believe Jio Financial Services is poised to deliver impressive results in Q1FY25 aided by its operating income, which is likely to show robust growth driven by strong investment income, which in turn should lead to healthy PAT growth on a sequential basis. Jio Financial Services continues to make strategic moves such as launching digital products and expanding its ecosystem, with a clear focus on future growth. The company has announced plans to introduce products for lending against stocks and mutual funds, leveraging Jio’s large user base, which could be a significant growth driver in the coming quarters.”
“Furthermore, with the NBFC receiving RBI approval to become a primary investment company, Jio Financial Services is well-positioned to unlock value from its investments. Overall, we expect the company to report robust numbers in the upcoming quarter,” the StoxBox expert added.
Jio Financial Stock Target Price
Speaking about the technical outlook of Jio Financial share price, Ganesh Dongre, Senior Manager, Technical Research at Anand Rathi, said, “Jio Financial Services share price is poised to make a fresh high at the ₹260 apiece level. If the stock breaks above this mark, the Reliance Group stock could make a fresh high by touching the ₹290-₹295 zone. Hence, those with Jio Finance stock in their portfolio are advised to stick to the script by keeping a stop loss at ₹205. If the stock breaks above ₹260 decisively, then one can upgrade the stop loss at ₹240 for the near-term target of ₹295.”
On the advice to new buyers regarding Jio Financial stock, Ganesh Dongre said, “New buyers are advised to wait for the breakout. Once the stock breaks above â‚ą260, one can buy this Reliance Group stock at the short term target of â‚ą295, keeping a stop loss of â‚ą240 apiece.”
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or brokerage firms, and not of Mint. Investors are advised to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
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