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Welltower (WELL) Shares Are Up 11.9% Year to Date: Will the Trend Last?
Actions of Welltower Inc. WELL has gained 11.9% year-to-date, versus the industry’s decline of 10.2%.
The Toledo, OH-based healthcare real estate investment trust (REIT) has a well-diversified portfolio of healthcare real estate assets in key markets across the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom. Its portfolio restructuring initiatives and capital recycling activities have helped Welltower navigate the growth curve thus far.
Last month, this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) company reported solid first-quarter 2024 results on higher revenues and robust senior housing (SHO) operating portfolio performance. Normalized funds from operations (FFO) per share of $1.01 surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 94 cents and rose 18.8% year over year.
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Let’s now decipher the factors behind the rising share price and see if the trend will last.
The senior housing sector is benefiting from the aging population and the increase in healthcare spending in this age group, which is generally higher than the population average. Given strong demand for this need-based asset class, coupled with weak new supply, Welltower’s SHO portfolio is witnessing healthy change activity, driving occupancy levels.
With an imbalance between supply and demand, the portfolio is expected to register sustained growth in occupancy in 2024 and in the coming years. Management expects same-store SHO NOI to grow in 2024 at the midpoint of 19.5%, driven by positive revenue and expense trends.
With senior healthcare spending expected to increase in the coming years and improving operational trends, Welltower’s SHO portfolio is well-poised for attractive multi-year growth.
Welltower’s strategic portfolio restructuring initiatives in recent years have enabled it to attract first-class operators and improve the quality of its cash flows.
Encouragingly, this healthcare REIT’s capital recycling activities to fund near-term investment and development opportunities pave the way for its long-term growth. In the first quarter of 2024, Welltower completed $449.2 million in pro rata gross investments, including $207.9 million in acquisitions and loan financing and $241.3 million in development financing. During this period, the company completed pro rata property dispositions and loan repayments of $107 million. Expects to fund an additional $660 million in development in 2024, related to projects in progress as of March 31, 2024.
Welltower maintains a healthy balance sheet with broad financial flexibility. It had US$6.5 billion of liquidity available as of March 31, 2024. It also enjoys BBB+ and Baa1 investment grade credit ratings from S&P Global Ratings and Moody’s, respectively, giving it access to the debt market at favorable conditions. favorable. With a solid financial foundation, this healthcare REIT remains well positioned to meet its near-term obligations and finance its development pipeline.
The story continues
The REIT, hoping to continue to benefit from the recovery in the senior housing sector, raised its expectations for current year normalized FFO per share to $4.02-4.15 from $3.94-4.10 estimated previously. Analysts also seem bullish on the company. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for WELL’s 2024 FFO per share moved north 1.5% last month to $4.11.
However, Welltower faces competition from national and local healthcare operators. This could affect your pricing power in the market and harm revenue growth. Additionally, the concentration of tenants in the company’s triple-net portfolio is concerning.
Given a high interest rate environment, the company may have difficulty purchasing or developing real estate with borrowed funds, as the cost will likely be higher.
Actions to consider
Some top-rated stocks in the REIT sector are Lamar Advertising LAMR and Rexford Industrial Properties REXR, each with a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) at the moment. You can see The complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for LAMR’s 2024 FFO per share rose 3.7% last month to $8.03.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for REXR’s current-year FFO per share has risen marginally over the past two months to $2.34.
Note: Anything related to earnings presented in this article represents funds from operations (FFO), a widely used metric for evaluating the performance of REITs.
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