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Voters historically have short memories about the economy. Inflation can be different.
Biden’s campaign has tried to console itself with the idea that perhaps voters aren’t yet made up as they struggle with a deficit at the polls and dismal economic rankings.
What may work in your favor is academic research that suggests that six months before Election Day – the deadline reached earlier this month – is when the countdown really begins.
“The question politicians ask is: Are you better off than you were four years ago?” said Berkeley political science professor Gabriel Lenz. Lenz’s research suggests that voters often process the question “a little closer to something like, am I better off than I was six months ago?”
But the investigation also offers a sizable asterisk: Voters appear to have longer memories when it comes to inflation.
This is said by Yale professor Ray Fair, who has long an electoral model which aims to predict how many votes each party will obtain depending on the state of the economy.
President Joe Biden speaks in Detroit during a campaign stop on May 19. (ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS/AFP via Getty Images) (ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS via Getty Images)
Their model looks at economic growth over the previous three quarters, but goes back 15 quarters – essentially a full presidential term – when looking at inflation.
“People are worried about inflation, even though it is coming down now, because the price level is much higher now than when Biden took office,” he noted in a recent interview.
“People will still remember” November, he added.
Overall, both experts agree that Biden could see his economic fortunes increase marginally if strong. stock market returns It is economic growth Continue. But both also recognize that there is a lingering sadness among voters that simply does not reflect broader economic data.
A recent Guardian-Harris Survey it was just an example. It found that 56% of respondents incorrectly said the US is in the midst of a recession, 55% said the economy is shrinking and 49% said the S&P 500 index has seen a decline this year.
“The question is why are people somewhat pessimistic about the economy, given the growth rate which is very good,” Fair said, “and it has to be inflation.”
Former President Donald Trump speaks to the media during his trial for allegedly covering up hush money payments in Manhattan Criminal Court on May 21. (Curtis Means-Pool/Getty Images) (Pool via Getty Images)
What economic models show
Despite the many uncertainties, several electoral models built around the economy still project an advantage for Biden.
The latest update to Fair’s model predicts that the Democrats’ (i.e. Biden’s) turnout in the November presidential vote will be 51.72%.
Fair’s projection remains within the margin of error, meaning the race is basically very close. However, it shows a slight Democratic advantage.
Another analysis of the issue is the presidential model from Moody’s Analytics. This measure predicts election results in each state based on the economy. This was updated last week and found President Biden with a small lead but a projected margin of victory in the Electoral College that has narrowed in recent months.
The story continues
In turn, Professor Lenz believes that “the fundamentals currently favor Biden” and said that his research suggests that Biden’s prospects will gradually improve if current positive economic trends continue.
“We can expect some forgiveness or forgetting about inflation as Election Day approaches,” he said.
But the models paint a strikingly different picture from current polls, which show a persistent Trump lead. Two new results last week showed Biden’s deficits.
A recent survey from the Swing State Project — a collaboration between the Cook Political Report and a Republican and Democratic polling firm — looked at seven swing states and found Trump ahead in six of them. The two candidates are tied in Wisconsin.
Furthermore, a national Marquette Law School poll predicts a 3-point advantage for Trump when third-party candidates are included. The race is tied in a head-to-head.
Other wildcards
There are a number of other factors that can undermine current research and any predictive models.
One X-factor that wasn’t present in previous elections, Lenz noted, is that “people have positive memories of the economy under Trump, which was actually, until the pandemic, very good for them.”
Another factor, of course, is that the economy could turn south in the coming months, with a resurgence in inflation or a drop in GDP growth. Changes in any of these areas would alter the various economic models.
There have also been times in history when voters’ perceptions ended up not aligning with the economy throughout Election Day.
Fair cites the 1992 election as a historical example.
This is a year, the professor notes, in which George HW Bush’s economy was actually in good shape, “but people seemed very pessimistic about the economy, for some reason, much more so than they should if we just looked at the numbers “.
Bill Clinton, of course, won the election and denied Bush a second term.
Presidential candidates George Bush, Ross Perot and Bill Clinton during a presidential debate in 1992. (Ron Sachs/Keystone/CNP/Getty Images) (Ron Sachs via Getty Images)
This is also one of the few elections in which Fair’s model failed, as it predicted Bush’s re-election.
Another notable election your model lost? Biden’s victory over Trump in 2020 (although he correctly considered Trump’s victory in 2016).
Ben Werschkul is the Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance.
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