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Voters historically have short memories about the economy. Inflation can be different.
Biden’s campaign has tried to console itself with the idea that perhaps voters aren’t yet made up as they struggle with a deficit at the polls and dismal economic rankings.
What may work in your favor is academic research that suggests that six months before Election Day – the deadline reached earlier this month – is when the countdown really begins.
“The question politicians ask is: Are you better off than you were four years ago?” said Berkeley political science professor Gabriel Lenz. Lenz’s research suggests that voters often process the question “a little closer to something like, am I better off than I was six months ago?”
But the investigation also offers a sizable asterisk: Voters appear to have longer memories when it comes to inflation.
This is said by Yale professor Ray Fair, who has long an electoral model which aims to predict how many votes each party will obtain depending on the state of the economy.
President Joe Biden speaks in Detroit during a campaign stop on May 19. (ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS/AFP via Getty Images) (ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS via Getty Images)
Their model looks at economic growth over the previous three quarters, but goes back 15 quarters – essentially a full presidential term – when looking at inflation.
“People are worried about inflation, even though it is coming down now, because the price level is much higher now than when Biden took office,” he noted in a recent interview.
“People will still remember” November, he added.
Overall, both experts agree that Biden could see his economic fortunes increase marginally if strong. stock market returns It is economic growth Continue. But both also recognize that there is a lingering sadness among voters that simply does not reflect broader economic data.
A recent Guardian-Harris Survey it was just an example. It found that 56% of respondents incorrectly said the US is in the midst of a recession, 55% said the economy is shrinking and 49% said the S&P 500 index has seen a decline this year.
“The question is why are people somewhat pessimistic about the economy, given the growth rate which is very good,” Fair said, “and it has to be inflation.”
Former President Donald Trump speaks to the media during his trial for allegedly covering up hush money payments in Manhattan Criminal Court on May 21. (Curtis Means-Pool/Getty Images) (Pool via Getty Images)
What economic models show
Despite the many uncertainties, several electoral models built around the economy still project an advantage for Biden.
The latest update to Fair’s model predicts that the Democrats’ (i.e. Biden’s) turnout in the November presidential vote will be 51.72%.
Fair’s projection remains within the margin of error, meaning the race is basically very close. However, it shows a slight Democratic advantage.
Another analysis of the issue is the presidential model from Moody’s Analytics. This measure predicts election results in each state based on the economy. This was updated last week and found President Biden with a small lead but a projected margin of victory in the Electoral College that has narrowed in recent months.
The story continues
In turn, Professor Lenz believes that “the fundamentals currently favor Biden” and said that his research suggests that Biden’s prospects will gradually improve if current positive economic trends continue.
“We can expect some forgiveness or forgetting about inflation as Election Day approaches,” he said.
But the models paint a strikingly different picture from current polls, which show a persistent Trump lead. Two new results last week showed Biden’s deficits.
A recent survey from the Swing State Project — a collaboration between the Cook Political Report and a Republican and Democratic polling firm — looked at seven swing states and found Trump ahead in six of them. The two candidates are tied in Wisconsin.
Furthermore, a national Marquette Law School poll predicts a 3-point advantage for Trump when third-party candidates are included. The race is tied in a head-to-head.
Other wildcards
There are a number of other factors that can undermine current research and any predictive models.
One X-factor that wasn’t present in previous elections, Lenz noted, is that “people have positive memories of the economy under Trump, which was actually, until the pandemic, very good for them.”
Another factor, of course, is that the economy could turn south in the coming months, with a resurgence in inflation or a drop in GDP growth. Changes in any of these areas would alter the various economic models.
There have also been times in history when voters’ perceptions ended up not aligning with the economy throughout Election Day.
Fair cites the 1992 election as a historical example.
This is a year, the professor notes, in which George HW Bush’s economy was actually in good shape, “but people seemed very pessimistic about the economy, for some reason, much more so than they should if we just looked at the numbers “.
Bill Clinton, of course, won the election and denied Bush a second term.
Presidential candidates George Bush, Ross Perot and Bill Clinton during a presidential debate in 1992. (Ron Sachs/Keystone/CNP/Getty Images) (Ron Sachs via Getty Images)
This is also one of the few elections in which Fair’s model failed, as it predicted Bush’s re-election.
Another notable election your model lost? Biden’s victory over Trump in 2020 (although he correctly considered Trump’s victory in 2016).
Ben Werschkul is the Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance.
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The spotlight next week will shift somewhat to the Federal Reserve’s second-quarter earnings season and monetary policy. Market watchers will be treated to results from several major names, including Dow 30 components Goldman Sachs (GS), UnitedHealth (UNH), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and American Express (AXP), along with streaming giant Netflix (NFLX).
The Fed will still attract some attention as investors will be eager to hear from a packed lineup of central bank speakers just before the policy meeting lockout period.
In terms of the economic calendar, after fifteen days of labor market and inflation indicators, activity data will gain momentum in the form of the latest retail sales and industrial production reports.
Earnings Highlight: Monday, July 15 – Goldman Sachs (GS) and BlackRock (Black). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Tuesday, July 16 – UnitedHealth (UNH), Bank of America (BAC), Progressive (PGR), Morgan Stanley (IN), PNC Financial (PNC) and JB Hunt Transport (JBHT). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Wednesday, July 17 – Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), US Bancorp (USB), Morgan Children (KMI), United Airlines (UAL) and Ally Financial (ALLY). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Thursday, July 18 – Netflix (NFLX), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Black stone (BX), Domino’s pizza (ZDP) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Friday, July 19 – American Express (AXP), Halliburton (THANKS) and Travelers (VRT (return to recoverable value)) See the full earnings calendar.
IPO Observation: Hospital and healthcare clinic operator Ardent Health Partners (TARDT), insurance service provider Twfg (TWFG) and the biotechnology company Lirum Therapeutics (LRTX) are expected to price their IPOs and begin trading next week. The analyst quiet period ends at Rectitude (RECT) to free up analysts to publish ratings.
Police cars outside the residence of Thomas Matthew Crooks, the suspected shooter at a Trump rally on Saturday, investigate the area in Pennsylvania. Following the incident, one rally attendee was killed, two rally attendees are in critical condition and Donald Trump suffered a non-fatal gunshot wound. The shooter is dead after being shot dead by the United States Secret Service. (Photo by Kyle Mazza/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Investors will initially favor traditional safe-haven assets and may lean toward trades more closely tied to former President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the White House after he survived an assassination attempt, according to market watchers.
“There will undoubtedly be some protectionist or safe-haven flows into Asia early this morning,” said Nick Twidale, chief market analyst at ATFX Global Markets. “I suspect gold could test all-time highs, we’ll see the yen being bought and the dollar, and flows into Treasuries as well.”
Early market commentary suggested Trump’s shooting at a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday could also prompt traders to increase his likelihood of success in the November election. His support for looser fiscal policy and higher tariffs is generally seen as likely to benefit the dollar and weaken Treasuries.
An indicator of market sentiment heading into the weekend: Bitcoin surged above $60,000, likely reflecting Trump’s pro-crypto stance.
Other assets positively linked to the so-called Trump trade include stocks of energy companies, private prisons, credit card companies and health insurers.
Traders will also be closely watching market measures of expected volatility on Monday, such as those in the tariff-sensitive Chinese yuan and Mexican peso, which have begun to price in the U.S. vote.
Trump said he was shot in the right ear after a shooting at his rally. His campaign said in a statement that he was “fine” after the incident, which prompted him to rush off the stage.
“Currencies will be the first major market on Monday in Asia to react to the weekend’s shots. There’s potential for extra volatility, and getting a clear reading could be especially difficult because liquidity will be hurt by Japan’s national holiday,” said Garfield Reynolds, Asia team leader for Bloomberg Markets Live.
Strategists had already expected a volatile run-up to the election, particularly as Democrats are still agonizing over President Joe Biden’s candidacy after his poor performance in last month’s debate raised questions about his age. Investors were also grappling with the possibility that the election could end in a drawn-out dispute or political violence.
But there is little precedent for events like those in Pennsylvania. When President Ronald Reagan was shot four decades ago, the stock market plunged before closing early. The next day, March 31, 1981, the S&P 500 rose more than 1% and benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell 9 basis points to 13.13%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Bond investors should pay particular attention as the attack is likely to boost Trump’s election chances and ultimately lead to concerns about the fiscal outlook, according to Marko Papic, chief strategist at California-based BCA Research Inc.
“The bond market must at some point become aware of President Trump’s greater chances of winning the White House than any of his rivals,” Papic wrote. “And I continue to believe that as his chances increase, so too must the likelihood of a bond market revolt.”
Kyle Rodda, senior financial markets analyst at Capital.com, said he was seeing client flows into Bitcoin and gold following the shooting.
“This news marks a turning point in American policy norms,” he said. “For markets, it means safe-haven trades, but more tilted toward non-traditional safe-havens.”
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News / Business / Latest Business News Live Updates Today, July 11, 2024
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Jio Financial share price: Should you buy this Reliance group stock on Monday ahead of Q1 FY2024 results?
Q1 2024 Results: Jio Financial Share Price will be in focus on Monday as the Reliance Group company has a fixed board meeting on July 15, 2024 to consider and approve the company’s unaudited standalone and consolidated financial results. Trust Group company informed about the Q1 2024 Results date on Wednesday last week via an exchange filing. According to stock market experts, Jio Financial Services Limited is poised to deliver impressive Q1 results for FY25 on solid operating income. They have forecast a healthy QoQ PAT for the company in Q1 FY25.
Jio Financial Services News
Speaking on the Jio Financial Services Q1 2024 results, Manish Chowdhury, Head of Research, StoxBox, said, “We believe Jio Financial Services is poised to deliver impressive results in Q1FY25 aided by its operating income, which is likely to show robust growth driven by strong investment income, which in turn should lead to healthy PAT growth on a sequential basis. Jio Financial Services continues to make strategic moves such as launching digital products and expanding its ecosystem, with a clear focus on future growth. The company has announced plans to introduce products for lending against stocks and mutual funds, leveraging Jio’s large user base, which could be a significant growth driver in the coming quarters.”
“Furthermore, with the NBFC receiving RBI approval to become a primary investment company, Jio Financial Services is well-positioned to unlock value from its investments. Overall, we expect the company to report robust numbers in the upcoming quarter,” the StoxBox expert added.
Jio Financial Stock Target Price
Speaking about the technical outlook of Jio Financial share price, Ganesh Dongre, Senior Manager, Technical Research at Anand Rathi, said, “Jio Financial Services share price is poised to make a fresh high at the ₹260 apiece level. If the stock breaks above this mark, the Reliance Group stock could make a fresh high by touching the ₹290-₹295 zone. Hence, those with Jio Finance stock in their portfolio are advised to stick to the script by keeping a stop loss at ₹205. If the stock breaks above ₹260 decisively, then one can upgrade the stop loss at ₹240 for the near-term target of ₹295.”
On the advice to new buyers regarding Jio Financial stock, Ganesh Dongre said, “New buyers are advised to wait for the breakout. Once the stock breaks above ₹260, one can buy this Reliance Group stock at the short term target of ₹295, keeping a stop loss of ₹240 apiece.”
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or brokerage firms, and not of Mint. Investors are advised to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
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