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US labor market adds 206,000 jobs, unemployment rate rises to 4.1%
The U.S. labor market created more jobs than expected in June, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to its highest level since November 2021, another sign that the labor market continues to cool.
Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Friday showed the U.S. economy created 206,000 nonfarm jobs in June, more than the 190,000 economists expected.
The unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, up from 4% the previous month and the highest reading in nearly three years. June’s job additions were a slight decline from May, which saw job gains revised down on Friday to 218,000 from the previous month. 272,000 initially reported last month. Total revisions for April and May showed the U.S. economy created 111,000 fewer jobs than initially reported.
“The June jobs report showed further signs of a cooling in the labor market, with employment growth, including revisions, weaker than expected, the unemployment rate rising and earnings growth slowing,” Nancy Vanden Houten, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, wrote in a note to clients.
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rose after the report, adding to gains after the market traded at record highs earlier this week amidst a series of weaker-than-expected economic data, Including readings on inflation that have the US retreating towards a “disinflationary path” according to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
Read more: How does the labor market affect inflation?
Ahead of Friday’s jobs report, investors were pricing in two interest rate cuts this year, with the first likely coming in September.
According to CME FedWatch ToolInvestors are pricing in a nearly 75% chance of the Fed cutting rates in September. Last month, Fed forecasts suggested a rate cut was likely appropriate this year.
For some, Friday’s report further strengthens the case for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in the near future.
“Today’s jobs report should firm up expectations for a September rate cut,” Neil Dutta, head of economics at Renaissance Macro, wrote in a note to clients. “Economic conditions are cooling and that makes the tradeoffs different for the Fed… Powell is likely to use July to set a September cut.”
With jobless claims rising and the unemployment rate at its highest level in more than two years while inflation is falling, economists believe the Fed is walking a tightrope in keeping interest rates at their highest levels in more than two decades.
“Given the evident cooling in the labor market over the past year, we see further weakening in the labor market, which is both more concerning and less welcome by the Fed,” Wells Fargo senior economist Sarah House wrote in a note to clients Tuesday.
The story continues
Data released earlier this week also showed signs of a slowdown in the labor market.
On Wednesday, the ADP Research Institute National Employment Report showed 150,000 jobs was added for the private sector in June, a slowdown from the 157,000 job additions in May.
Meanwhile, data from the Department of Labor showed that nearly 1.86 million continuing unemployment insurance claims were filed in the week ending June 29, up from 1.83 million the previous week. That marked the ninth consecutive week that continuing claims have increased.
Elsewhere in Friday’s report, wage growth, a key measure of inflationary pressures, slowed to 3.9% year over year. On a monthly basis, wages rose 0.3%, down from the previous month’s 0.4% gain.
Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate rose to 62.6% from 62.5% the previous month.
The biggest job gains in Friday’s report were in government employment, which added 70,000 jobs in June. At the same time, health care employment added 49,000 jobs, below the average monthly gain of 64,000 over the past 12 months.
Pedestrians and a construction worker walk past a lit American flag in the rain in Times Square on Aug. 22, 2013, in New York City. (Mario Tama/Getty Images) (Mario Tama via Getty Images)
Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.
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Breakfast on Wall Street: The Week Ahead
The spotlight next week will shift somewhat to the Federal Reserve’s second-quarter earnings season and monetary policy. Market watchers will be treated to results from several major names, including Dow 30 components Goldman Sachs (GS), UnitedHealth (UNH), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and American Express (AXP), along with streaming giant Netflix (NFLX).
The Fed will still attract some attention as investors will be eager to hear from a packed lineup of central bank speakers just before the policy meeting lockout period.
In terms of the economic calendar, after fifteen days of labor market and inflation indicators, activity data will gain momentum in the form of the latest retail sales and industrial production reports.
Earnings Highlight: Monday, July 15 – Goldman Sachs (GS) and BlackRock (Black). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Tuesday, July 16 – UnitedHealth (UNH), Bank of America (BAC), Progressive (PGR), Morgan Stanley (IN), PNC Financial (PNC) and JB Hunt Transport (JBHT). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Wednesday, July 17 – Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), US Bancorp (USB), Morgan Children (KMI), United Airlines (UAL) and Ally Financial (ALLY). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Thursday, July 18 – Netflix (NFLX), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Black stone (BX), Domino’s pizza (ZDP) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Friday, July 19 – American Express (AXP), Halliburton (THANKS) and Travelers (VRT (return to recoverable value)) See the full earnings calendar.
IPO Observation: Hospital and healthcare clinic operator Ardent Health Partners (TARDT), insurance service provider Twfg (TWFG) and the biotechnology company Lirum Therapeutics (LRTX) are expected to price their IPOs and begin trading next week. The analyst quiet period ends at Rectitude (RECT) to free up analysts to publish ratings.
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Trump shooting: Gold could hit record high, dollar and cryptocurrencies set to jump
Police cars outside the residence of Thomas Matthew Crooks, the suspected shooter at a Trump rally on Saturday, investigate the area in Pennsylvania. Following the incident, one rally attendee was killed, two rally attendees are in critical condition and Donald Trump suffered a non-fatal gunshot wound. The shooter is dead after being shot dead by the United States Secret Service. (Photo by Kyle Mazza/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Investors will initially favor traditional safe-haven assets and may lean toward trades more closely tied to former President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the White House after he survived an assassination attempt, according to market watchers.
“There will undoubtedly be some protectionist or safe-haven flows into Asia early this morning,” said Nick Twidale, chief market analyst at ATFX Global Markets. “I suspect gold could test all-time highs, we’ll see the yen being bought and the dollar, and flows into Treasuries as well.”
Early market commentary suggested Trump’s shooting at a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday could also prompt traders to increase his likelihood of success in the November election. His support for looser fiscal policy and higher tariffs is generally seen as likely to benefit the dollar and weaken Treasuries.
An indicator of market sentiment heading into the weekend: Bitcoin surged above $60,000, likely reflecting Trump’s pro-crypto stance.
Other assets positively linked to the so-called Trump trade include stocks of energy companies, private prisons, credit card companies and health insurers.
Traders will also be closely watching market measures of expected volatility on Monday, such as those in the tariff-sensitive Chinese yuan and Mexican peso, which have begun to price in the U.S. vote.
Trump said he was shot in the right ear after a shooting at his rally. His campaign said in a statement that he was “fine” after the incident, which prompted him to rush off the stage.
“Currencies will be the first major market on Monday in Asia to react to the weekend’s shots. There’s potential for extra volatility, and getting a clear reading could be especially difficult because liquidity will be hurt by Japan’s national holiday,” said Garfield Reynolds, Asia team leader for Bloomberg Markets Live.
Strategists had already expected a volatile run-up to the election, particularly as Democrats are still agonizing over President Joe Biden’s candidacy after his poor performance in last month’s debate raised questions about his age. Investors were also grappling with the possibility that the election could end in a drawn-out dispute or political violence.
But there is little precedent for events like those in Pennsylvania. When President Ronald Reagan was shot four decades ago, the stock market plunged before closing early. The next day, March 31, 1981, the S&P 500 rose more than 1% and benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell 9 basis points to 13.13%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Bond investors should pay particular attention as the attack is likely to boost Trump’s election chances and ultimately lead to concerns about the fiscal outlook, according to Marko Papic, chief strategist at California-based BCA Research Inc.
“The bond market must at some point become aware of President Trump’s greater chances of winning the White House than any of his rivals,” Papic wrote. “And I continue to believe that as his chances increase, so too must the likelihood of a bond market revolt.”
Kyle Rodda, senior financial markets analyst at Capital.com, said he was seeing client flows into Bitcoin and gold following the shooting.
“This news marks a turning point in American policy norms,” he said. “For markets, it means safe-haven trades, but more tilted toward non-traditional safe-havens.”
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Latest Business News Live Updates Today, July 11, 2024
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 08:44 PM
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Jio Financial share price: Should you buy this Reliance group stock on Monday ahead of Q1 FY2024 results?
Q1 2024 Results: Jio Financial Share Price will be in focus on Monday as the Reliance Group company has a fixed board meeting on July 15, 2024 to consider and approve the company’s unaudited standalone and consolidated financial results. Trust Group company informed about the Q1 2024 Results date on Wednesday last week via an exchange filing. According to stock market experts, Jio Financial Services Limited is poised to deliver impressive Q1 results for FY25 on solid operating income. They have forecast a healthy QoQ PAT for the company in Q1 FY25.
Jio Financial Services News
Speaking on the Jio Financial Services Q1 2024 results, Manish Chowdhury, Head of Research, StoxBox, said, “We believe Jio Financial Services is poised to deliver impressive results in Q1FY25 aided by its operating income, which is likely to show robust growth driven by strong investment income, which in turn should lead to healthy PAT growth on a sequential basis. Jio Financial Services continues to make strategic moves such as launching digital products and expanding its ecosystem, with a clear focus on future growth. The company has announced plans to introduce products for lending against stocks and mutual funds, leveraging Jio’s large user base, which could be a significant growth driver in the coming quarters.”
“Furthermore, with the NBFC receiving RBI approval to become a primary investment company, Jio Financial Services is well-positioned to unlock value from its investments. Overall, we expect the company to report robust numbers in the upcoming quarter,” the StoxBox expert added.
Jio Financial Stock Target Price
Speaking about the technical outlook of Jio Financial share price, Ganesh Dongre, Senior Manager, Technical Research at Anand Rathi, said, “Jio Financial Services share price is poised to make a fresh high at the ₹260 apiece level. If the stock breaks above this mark, the Reliance Group stock could make a fresh high by touching the ₹290-₹295 zone. Hence, those with Jio Finance stock in their portfolio are advised to stick to the script by keeping a stop loss at ₹205. If the stock breaks above ₹260 decisively, then one can upgrade the stop loss at ₹240 for the near-term target of ₹295.”
On the advice to new buyers regarding Jio Financial stock, Ganesh Dongre said, “New buyers are advised to wait for the breakout. Once the stock breaks above ₹260, one can buy this Reliance Group stock at the short term target of ₹295, keeping a stop loss of ₹240 apiece.”
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or brokerage firms, and not of Mint. Investors are advised to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
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