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Sweden cuts interest rates as Europe diverges from Fed
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Sweden’s central bank has cut interest rates for the first time in eight years as European policymakers diverge from the US to support their economies, even if it comes at the expense of their currencies.
O Riksbank It cut its key interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 3.75 percent on Wednesday, the first time it has eased policy before the US Federal Reserve this century.
“We are sufficiently convinced that inflation has come down, and come down sustainably,” Erik Thedéen, governor of the Riksbank, told the Financial Times.
But he added that most risks were “on the upside,” such as a further weakening of the Swedish krona leading to an increase in imports. inflationgeopolitical risks and the continued strength of the US economy.
The reduction in Swedish rates, following recent similar measures by the Swiss, Czech and Hungarian central banks, shows Europe’s growing willingness to take a different path policy on monetary policy, economists say.
A cut expected by the European Central Bank at its next meeting would confirm this divergence. Due to the size of the U.S. economy and the outsized influence of its financial markets and the dollar, the Federal Reserve typically takes the lead in changing rates.
Following the Riksbank decision, the krona fell 0.4 percent against the dollar to 10.90 SEK and 0.3 percent against the euro to 11.71 SEK.
Sweden’s currency is the third-worst performer in the G10’s most traded group of currencies this year, down 7.5% against the dollar and 5% against the euro.
Christina Nyman, chief economist at Handelsbanken and a former Riksbank official, previously said a rate cut would put the krona under greater pressure, especially if the Fed delays its own cuts.
“It’s the currency that could potentially be a problem. Sweden is a small open economy and we depend on what happens around us,” she said.
With US inflation remaining above expected and its economy continuing to produce solid growth, the Fed signaled last week that it was likely to maintain rates louder for longer.
However, inflation and growth in Europe have been weaker in recent months than in the U.S., opening the door for the region’s central banks to begin reducing borrowing costs ahead of the Fed.
The ECB has signaled that it is likely that start cutting rates at its next policy meeting on June 6, if price pressures continue to ease as expected. The Riksbank has already surpassed the ECB: in 2019, it abandoned negative interest rates more than two years before they ended in the eurozone.
More than two-thirds of Sweden’s imports and half of its exports are traded with the EU, making the Nordic economy sensitive to changes in the euro and the ECB’s monetary policy decisions.
But there are concerns that if rates in Europe fall faster than in the US, it would cause European currencies to depreciate against the dollar, increasing import prices and fueling higher inflation.
Thedéen acknowledged that the corona and potentially even monetary policy could be affected by a strong US economy that causes the Fed to delay rate cuts for longer than expected.
“The Riksbank is particularly interesting to watch in this episode, as the structure of the Swedish economy is closely related to the broader European economy and therefore acts more as a precursor [than Switzerland] for what might come from the ECB,” said Piet Haines Christiansen, strategist at Danske Bank.
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Sweden’s economy contracted both last year and in the first quarter of this year after a series of rate hikes led to a sharp fall in house prices and consumption, although there are signs that inflation is likely to reach Riksbank target of 2% in 2024.
Thedéen stressed that the Riksbank believed the krone was “fundamentally undervalued” as companies from neighboring countries flocked to Sweden to buy capital goods. He said there was a risk that lower rates could lead to a reduced exchange rate and therefore higher import costs, but said other inflationary factors – such as activity levels, corporate price-setting and wage growth – supported a rate cut.
The Swedish rate cut contrasts with sentiment in neighboring Norway, which is also suffering from a weak currency. Norges Bank indicated last week that it would keep rates unchanged, with some economists now expecting it not to cut until December or even next year. That would likely make it one of the last major central banks to start easing.
Additional reporting by Mary McDougall in London
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Breakfast on Wall Street: The Week Ahead
The spotlight next week will shift somewhat to the Federal Reserve’s second-quarter earnings season and monetary policy. Market watchers will be treated to results from several major names, including Dow 30 components Goldman Sachs (GS), UnitedHealth (UNH), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and American Express (AXP), along with streaming giant Netflix (NFLX).
The Fed will still attract some attention as investors will be eager to hear from a packed lineup of central bank speakers just before the policy meeting lockout period.
In terms of the economic calendar, after fifteen days of labor market and inflation indicators, activity data will gain momentum in the form of the latest retail sales and industrial production reports.
Earnings Highlight: Monday, July 15 – Goldman Sachs (GS) and BlackRock (Black). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Tuesday, July 16 – UnitedHealth (UNH), Bank of America (BAC), Progressive (PGR), Morgan Stanley (IN), PNC Financial (PNC) and JB Hunt Transport (JBHT). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Wednesday, July 17 – Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), US Bancorp (USB), Morgan Children (KMI), United Airlines (UAL) and Ally Financial (ALLY). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Thursday, July 18 – Netflix (NFLX), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Black stone (BX), Domino’s pizza (ZDP) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Friday, July 19 – American Express (AXP), Halliburton (THANKS) and Travelers (VRT (return to recoverable value)) See the full earnings calendar.
IPO Observation: Hospital and healthcare clinic operator Ardent Health Partners (TARDT), insurance service provider Twfg (TWFG) and the biotechnology company Lirum Therapeutics (LRTX) are expected to price their IPOs and begin trading next week. The analyst quiet period ends at Rectitude (RECT) to free up analysts to publish ratings.
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Trump shooting: Gold could hit record high, dollar and cryptocurrencies set to jump
Police cars outside the residence of Thomas Matthew Crooks, the suspected shooter at a Trump rally on Saturday, investigate the area in Pennsylvania. Following the incident, one rally attendee was killed, two rally attendees are in critical condition and Donald Trump suffered a non-fatal gunshot wound. The shooter is dead after being shot dead by the United States Secret Service. (Photo by Kyle Mazza/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Investors will initially favor traditional safe-haven assets and may lean toward trades more closely tied to former President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the White House after he survived an assassination attempt, according to market watchers.
“There will undoubtedly be some protectionist or safe-haven flows into Asia early this morning,” said Nick Twidale, chief market analyst at ATFX Global Markets. “I suspect gold could test all-time highs, we’ll see the yen being bought and the dollar, and flows into Treasuries as well.”
Early market commentary suggested Trump’s shooting at a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday could also prompt traders to increase his likelihood of success in the November election. His support for looser fiscal policy and higher tariffs is generally seen as likely to benefit the dollar and weaken Treasuries.
An indicator of market sentiment heading into the weekend: Bitcoin surged above $60,000, likely reflecting Trump’s pro-crypto stance.
Other assets positively linked to the so-called Trump trade include stocks of energy companies, private prisons, credit card companies and health insurers.
Traders will also be closely watching market measures of expected volatility on Monday, such as those in the tariff-sensitive Chinese yuan and Mexican peso, which have begun to price in the U.S. vote.
Trump said he was shot in the right ear after a shooting at his rally. His campaign said in a statement that he was “fine” after the incident, which prompted him to rush off the stage.
“Currencies will be the first major market on Monday in Asia to react to the weekend’s shots. There’s potential for extra volatility, and getting a clear reading could be especially difficult because liquidity will be hurt by Japan’s national holiday,” said Garfield Reynolds, Asia team leader for Bloomberg Markets Live.
Strategists had already expected a volatile run-up to the election, particularly as Democrats are still agonizing over President Joe Biden’s candidacy after his poor performance in last month’s debate raised questions about his age. Investors were also grappling with the possibility that the election could end in a drawn-out dispute or political violence.
But there is little precedent for events like those in Pennsylvania. When President Ronald Reagan was shot four decades ago, the stock market plunged before closing early. The next day, March 31, 1981, the S&P 500 rose more than 1% and benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell 9 basis points to 13.13%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Bond investors should pay particular attention as the attack is likely to boost Trump’s election chances and ultimately lead to concerns about the fiscal outlook, according to Marko Papic, chief strategist at California-based BCA Research Inc.
“The bond market must at some point become aware of President Trump’s greater chances of winning the White House than any of his rivals,” Papic wrote. “And I continue to believe that as his chances increase, so too must the likelihood of a bond market revolt.”
Kyle Rodda, senior financial markets analyst at Capital.com, said he was seeing client flows into Bitcoin and gold following the shooting.
“This news marks a turning point in American policy norms,” he said. “For markets, it means safe-haven trades, but more tilted toward non-traditional safe-havens.”
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Jio Financial share price: Should you buy this Reliance group stock on Monday ahead of Q1 FY2024 results?
Q1 2024 Results: Jio Financial Share Price will be in focus on Monday as the Reliance Group company has a fixed board meeting on July 15, 2024 to consider and approve the company’s unaudited standalone and consolidated financial results. Trust Group company informed about the Q1 2024 Results date on Wednesday last week via an exchange filing. According to stock market experts, Jio Financial Services Limited is poised to deliver impressive Q1 results for FY25 on solid operating income. They have forecast a healthy QoQ PAT for the company in Q1 FY25.
Jio Financial Services News
Speaking on the Jio Financial Services Q1 2024 results, Manish Chowdhury, Head of Research, StoxBox, said, “We believe Jio Financial Services is poised to deliver impressive results in Q1FY25 aided by its operating income, which is likely to show robust growth driven by strong investment income, which in turn should lead to healthy PAT growth on a sequential basis. Jio Financial Services continues to make strategic moves such as launching digital products and expanding its ecosystem, with a clear focus on future growth. The company has announced plans to introduce products for lending against stocks and mutual funds, leveraging Jio’s large user base, which could be a significant growth driver in the coming quarters.”
“Furthermore, with the NBFC receiving RBI approval to become a primary investment company, Jio Financial Services is well-positioned to unlock value from its investments. Overall, we expect the company to report robust numbers in the upcoming quarter,” the StoxBox expert added.
Jio Financial Stock Target Price
Speaking about the technical outlook of Jio Financial share price, Ganesh Dongre, Senior Manager, Technical Research at Anand Rathi, said, “Jio Financial Services share price is poised to make a fresh high at the ₹260 apiece level. If the stock breaks above this mark, the Reliance Group stock could make a fresh high by touching the ₹290-₹295 zone. Hence, those with Jio Finance stock in their portfolio are advised to stick to the script by keeping a stop loss at ₹205. If the stock breaks above ₹260 decisively, then one can upgrade the stop loss at ₹240 for the near-term target of ₹295.”
On the advice to new buyers regarding Jio Financial stock, Ganesh Dongre said, “New buyers are advised to wait for the breakout. Once the stock breaks above ₹260, one can buy this Reliance Group stock at the short term target of ₹295, keeping a stop loss of ₹240 apiece.”
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or brokerage firms, and not of Mint. Investors are advised to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
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