ETFs
S&P 500 Preview: Fourth Consecutive Weekly Gain
The S&P 500 posted its fourth consecutive weekly gain after hitting a new all-time high this week. The index is currently up 11.82% year to date and has recorded a new all-time high 23 times this year.
The table below summarizes the number of records reached each year since 2008.
Here’s a look at the index over the past 5 days:
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Here’s a look at the index over the past six months with a 50-day moving average:
The US Treasury set the closing yield on 10-year bonds, as of May 17, at 4.42%, which is above its historic low (0.52% on 8/4/2020). The 2-year title is at 4.83%. ETFs associated with Treasury bonds include: iShares ETF on 1-3 year Treasury bonds (SHY A-), iShares ETF on 7 to 10 year Treasury bonds (IEF B)And iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT B-). View our latest cash flow overview here.
S&P 500: A Perspective on Withdrawals
On October 9, 2007, the S&P 500 Index reached an all-time high, closing the day at 1,565.15. Then, on March 9, 2009, the index fell approximately 57% from its peak exactly 17 months prior, closing the day at 676.53. This period is known as the global financial crisis. It took over 5 years before the index reached a new all-time high on March 28, 2013, where it closed at 1,569.19. The chart below is a snapshot of records and sell-offs since the 2007 peak reached on October 9, 2007.
What will happen if we emerge from the global financial crisis? Here’s a snapshot of the same chart above where the start date has been changed to match the low reached on March 9, 2009. Note the recent sell-offs in 2022.
Here is a table with the number of days of a change of 1% or more in one direction or the other and the number of days of corrections (down 10% or more from the all-time high) going back to 2013.
Here is a line graph of the index since October 9, 2007:
Here is a linear scale version of the same chart with the 50 and 200 day moving averages. As of November 3, the index was above its 200-day moving average. As of May 6, the index was above its 50-day moving average.
S&P 500: A Perspective on Volatility
To get an idea of the correlation between closing price and intraday volatility, the chart below overlays the S&P 500 since 2007 with the intraday price range. I’ve also included a 20-day moving average to identify volatility trends.
S&P 500 vs. S&P Equal Weight
The S&P 500 is a market-cap-weighted index that includes approximately the 500 largest U.S. stocks across 11 sectors. The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index includes the same components as the S&P 500, but each company is also assigned a fixed weight. So how do these two indices compare this year?
The S&P 500 is currently up 11.82% year-to-date, while the S&P Equal Weight is up 6.24% year-to-date.
ETFs associated with the S&P 500 include: iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV A), SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (TO SPY A), Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO A), SPDR S&P 500 ETF Portfolio (SPLG A)And Invesco S&P 500® Equal Weight ETF (RRSP A-).
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