News
S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new records after inflation cools and Fed sees improving outlook
A promising inflation impression On the morning of the Federal Reserve’s latest monetary policy announcement, economists feel optimistic about the central bank’s statement, and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference may be more peaceful than initially expected.
May’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed the smallest annual increase in consumer prices since July 2022. Overall, the print showed slower inflation measures than economists had expected.
Given the “magnitude” of these surprises, JPMorgan chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli believes the data could change the way the “dot plot,” which maps policymakers’ expectations about the direction interest rates may take in the future, arrives at 2 p.m. ET. .
“We thought it was just between the median point showing one or two facilities this year,” Feroli wrote in a note to clients. “If participants actively update their points, as they are allowed, this should increase the chances of a median point with two cuts.”
Feroli added that the inflation data will likely prompt the Fed to remove the phrase from its May statement that said: “In recent months, there has been a lack of further progress toward the Committee’s 2% inflation target.”
While Powell may not mention it directly, other economists have argued that given Wednesday’s positive inflation data and the recent rise in the unemployment rate, the Fed should be close to cutting interest rates to ensure minimal damage to the currency market. work.
“The unemployment rate increased by 0.6 [percentage points] from its minimum to 4.0%, reaching the March level [summary of economist projections] estimate two quarters ahead of schedule and core inflation has eased,” Renaissance Macro head of economics Neil Dutta wrote in a note on Wednesday. “A general rule of thumb would be to assume 0.1% in core PCE at the end of the month.
He added: “It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out what needs to be done. It’s time to start recalibrating monetary policy.”