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Social Influence in Insurgency – Defense News
By Air Commander TK Chatterjee (Retired)
It is a well-established fact that a riot or violent civil disorder cannot last more than 24 hours if the state does not want it to last. The state has immense powers, which if unleashed with the intention of controlling the disorder can put an end to such events in a day. But if the state looks the other way when chaos and arson occur, such events last longer. The anti-Sikh riots of 1984, the Godhra massacre and the recent troubles in Manipur are cases in point. In all these cases, the state allowed the violence to happen.
A basic difference between sporadic riots and sustained insurrections is that in the former the will of the people does not matter and in the latter case, the will of the State does not matter.
This brings me to the insurgency in J&K, the purpose of this article.
The recent spate of attacks on civilians and armed forces in Jammu and Kashmir has brought the nation’s attention to the insurgency after a long hiatus. The MHA is conducting a review of the situation, the CDS is visiting the region, more forces are being inducted and the PM has ordered the country’s “full spectrum of counter-insurgency capabilities” to be unleashed. An overlooked fact is that this is not a mutiny, this is an insurgency.
And where will all this fuss take us? A brief pause and then history will repeat itself.
A well-accepted reason for any insurgency in any region is unemployment, poverty and a perceived feeling of marginalization of a region or a section of society at large. J&K chose to be different from the rest of India and therefore has not really been an equal participant in the economic revolution that the country has seen since the opening of India economy in the nineties. Even so, Gross State Domestic Product ranked 21st among 33 states and Union territories in the year 2021-22, and 27th in GDP per capita, according to Wikipedia, which cites data released by the State Planning Commission. India. The GDP growth rate was 9.61% between 2012-22, according to the Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation, GOI. GDP per capita has increased steadily from INR 21,734/- in 2004-05 to INR 101,645/- in 2020-21. Some states fared worse than J&K in this period, but this did not give rise to insurgency in these regions. Therefore, poverty itself is not the cause of insurgency.
The revocation of Article 370 has brought about change in the region and we hope that in the coming years the State will fully integrate into the country and benefit from India’s economic progress. But there has to be a sustained effort on the part of the State in the coming decades.
The geopolitical factor influences the insurgency in the region more than the local population can agitate. Periodic rhetoric from both sides of the LOC that those parts of Kashmir not under their control will be reconquered by force does not help the situation. All three nuclear-armed neighbors surrounding Kashmir know very well that they are just playing to their respective galleries. But Pakistan keeps the fire burning by sending infiltrators regularly to foment trouble in the valley. It is understandable that they do this to prevent the valley from becoming completely peaceful, because if that happens, Pakistan becomes irrelevant to the Kashmir cause. But what is not so understandable is how they find sympathizers in the valley so easily. Without the help of the local population, such activities can never succeed.
Sometimes events bring supporters together or fragment them. The assassination of Burhan Wani brought the protesters and the rioters together.
Politics has long failed to bring peace to the valley. Local politicians have played both sides of the LoC and have received incentives from both. One to create trouble and the other to control the trouble. So it has become a good business for few in the valley, the unsuspecting local youth have only served as fodder for the canons. India had no choice but to use the military for decades in the region to control infiltration and terrorism. But once the military enters, the game changes. No matter how hard one tries to avoid it, it becomes a police state. Moreover, the army does not use tear gas and rubber bullets and does not hide its weapons. steel fist under velvet gloves. Therefore, they are ideal targets for human rights activists whenever there is collateral damage during their operations. A recent case of some suspects who died while in army custody is an example of this.
As long as this game is played with weapons, attacks and counterattacks will continue and blood will be spilled. It is local society that must decide whether it wants peace and prosperity or conflict and chaos. With a literacy level of 67.16%, there must be minds mature enough in the region to realize what is good for them in the long run. It is up to the GOI to provide tangible incentives for society to accept that supporting insurgency is not the way forward. If this happens, the community will police itself and provide humint to law enforcement agencies, who can then take preventative action. The army’s successful operations are primarily due to actionable humint and not due to the countless eyes in the sky. While targeted operations, network detection and destruction, cybersecurity, trip security, etc. can remain in the background, society’s commitment to ending violence must remain at the forefront.
That said, to unify Kashmiris towards a common path of peace and prosperity along with the rest of India, and detoxify society from Pakistani influence, great leadership will be required. Unfortunately, such a leader, a Nelson Mandela type, is nowhere on the Kashmiri horizon. This will certainly make the government’s job more difficult, but then we have a government that has brought J&K fully into the Indian fold legally. The rest should also be possible. As they say………..mumkin hai.
The author is a veteran of the Indian Air Force.
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