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Social Influence in Insurgency – Defense News
By Air Commander TK Chatterjee (Retired)
It is a well-established fact that a riot or violent civil disorder cannot last more than 24 hours if the state does not want it to last. The state has immense powers, which if unleashed with the intention of controlling the disorder can put an end to such events in a day. But if the state looks the other way when chaos and arson occur, such events last longer. The anti-Sikh riots of 1984, the Godhra massacre and the recent troubles in Manipur are cases in point. In all these cases, the state allowed the violence to happen.
Likewise, insurgency in any country, or in any region within a country, cannot last unless the local population wants it to last. The criminals, in these cases, are part of the local population or are foreigners sheltered by local inhabitants and are known in the locality as such. They thrive because the locality allows it. Hamas survives despite the relentless Israeli attack because the Palestinians want it to. And Hamas will continue to survive because today’s children who see their homes and families destroyed by Israeli bombs are tomorrow’s Hamas cadres. The Afghans could not have fought against the British, the Russians and the Americans unless Afghan society at large did not support the fighters. Likewise, even if Ukraine falls to the Russians, its resistance to Russian occupation will continue sine die because Ukrainian society will not accept the Russians.
A basic difference between sporadic riots and sustained insurrections is that in the former the will of the people does not matter and in the latter case, the will of the State does not matter.
This brings me to the insurgency in J&K, the purpose of this article.
The recent spate of attacks on civilians and armed forces in Jammu and Kashmir has brought the nation’s attention to the insurgency after a long hiatus. The MHA is conducting a review of the situation, the CDS is visiting the region, more forces are being inducted and the PM has ordered the country’s “full spectrum of counter-insurgency capabilities” to be unleashed. An overlooked fact is that this is not a mutiny, this is an insurgency.
And where will all this fuss take us? A brief pause and then history will repeat itself.
A well-accepted reason for any insurgency in any region is unemployment, poverty and a perceived feeling of marginalization of a region or a section of society at large. J&K chose to be different from the rest of India and therefore has not really been an equal participant in the economic revolution that the country has seen since the opening of India economy in the nineties. Even so, Gross State Domestic Product ranked 21st among 33 states and Union territories in the year 2021-22, and 27th in GDP per capita, according to Wikipedia, which cites data released by the State Planning Commission. India. The GDP growth rate was 9.61% between 2012-22, according to the Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation, GOI. GDP per capita has increased steadily from INR 21,734/- in 2004-05 to INR 101,645/- in 2020-21. Some states fared worse than J&K in this period, but this did not give rise to insurgency in these regions. Therefore, poverty itself is not the cause of insurgency.
The revocation of Article 370 has brought about change in the region and we hope that in the coming years the State will fully integrate into the country and benefit from India’s economic progress. But there has to be a sustained effort on the part of the State in the coming decades.
The geopolitical factor influences the insurgency in the region more than the local population can agitate. Periodic rhetoric from both sides of the LOC that those parts of Kashmir not under their control will be reconquered by force does not help the situation. All three nuclear-armed neighbors surrounding Kashmir know very well that they are just playing to their respective galleries. But Pakistan keeps the fire burning by sending infiltrators regularly to foment trouble in the valley. It is understandable that they do this to prevent the valley from becoming completely peaceful, because if that happens, Pakistan becomes irrelevant to the Kashmir cause. But what is not so understandable is how they find sympathizers in the valley so easily. Without the help of the local population, such activities can never succeed.
Sometimes events bring supporters together or fragment them. The assassination of Burhan Wani brought the protesters and the rioters together.
Politics has long failed to bring peace to the valley. Local politicians have played both sides of the LoC and have received incentives from both. One to create trouble and the other to control the trouble. So it has become a good business for few in the valley, the unsuspecting local youth have only served as fodder for the canons. India had no choice but to use the military for decades in the region to control infiltration and terrorism. But once the military enters, the game changes. No matter how hard one tries to avoid it, it becomes a police state. Moreover, the army does not use tear gas and rubber bullets and does not hide its weapons. steel fist under velvet gloves. Therefore, they are ideal targets for human rights activists whenever there is collateral damage during their operations. A recent case of some suspects who died while in army custody is an example of this.
As long as this game is played with weapons, attacks and counterattacks will continue and blood will be spilled. It is local society that must decide whether it wants peace and prosperity or conflict and chaos. With a literacy level of 67.16%, there must be minds mature enough in the region to realize what is good for them in the long run. It is up to the GOI to provide tangible incentives for society to accept that supporting insurgency is not the way forward. If this happens, the community will police itself and provide humint to law enforcement agencies, who can then take preventative action. The army’s successful operations are primarily due to actionable humint and not due to the countless eyes in the sky. While targeted operations, network detection and destruction, cybersecurity, trip security, etc. can remain in the background, society’s commitment to ending violence must remain at the forefront.
That said, to unify Kashmiris towards a common path of peace and prosperity along with the rest of India, and detoxify society from Pakistani influence, great leadership will be required. Unfortunately, such a leader, a Nelson Mandela type, is nowhere on the Kashmiri horizon. This will certainly make the government’s job more difficult, but then we have a government that has brought J&K fully into the Indian fold legally. The rest should also be possible. As they say………..mumkin hai.
The author is a veteran of the Indian Air Force.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed are personal and do not reflect the official position or policy of FinancialExpress.com. Reproduction of this content without permission is prohibited.
The spotlight next week will shift somewhat to the Federal Reserve’s second-quarter earnings season and monetary policy. Market watchers will be treated to results from several major names, including Dow 30 components Goldman Sachs (GS), UnitedHealth (UNH), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and American Express (AXP), along with streaming giant Netflix (NFLX).
The Fed will still attract some attention as investors will be eager to hear from a packed lineup of central bank speakers just before the policy meeting lockout period.
In terms of the economic calendar, after fifteen days of labor market and inflation indicators, activity data will gain momentum in the form of the latest retail sales and industrial production reports.
Earnings Highlight: Monday, July 15 – Goldman Sachs (GS) and BlackRock (Black). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Tuesday, July 16 – UnitedHealth (UNH), Bank of America (BAC), Progressive (PGR), Morgan Stanley (IN), PNC Financial (PNC) and JB Hunt Transport (JBHT). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Wednesday, July 17 – Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), US Bancorp (USB), Morgan Children (KMI), United Airlines (UAL) and Ally Financial (ALLY). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Thursday, July 18 – Netflix (NFLX), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Black stone (BX), Domino’s pizza (ZDP) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Friday, July 19 – American Express (AXP), Halliburton (THANKS) and Travelers (VRT (return to recoverable value)) See the full earnings calendar.
IPO Observation: Hospital and healthcare clinic operator Ardent Health Partners (TARDT), insurance service provider Twfg (TWFG) and the biotechnology company Lirum Therapeutics (LRTX) are expected to price their IPOs and begin trading next week. The analyst quiet period ends at Rectitude (RECT) to free up analysts to publish ratings.
Police cars outside the residence of Thomas Matthew Crooks, the suspected shooter at a Trump rally on Saturday, investigate the area in Pennsylvania. Following the incident, one rally attendee was killed, two rally attendees are in critical condition and Donald Trump suffered a non-fatal gunshot wound. The shooter is dead after being shot dead by the United States Secret Service. (Photo by Kyle Mazza/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Investors will initially favor traditional safe-haven assets and may lean toward trades more closely tied to former President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the White House after he survived an assassination attempt, according to market watchers.
“There will undoubtedly be some protectionist or safe-haven flows into Asia early this morning,” said Nick Twidale, chief market analyst at ATFX Global Markets. “I suspect gold could test all-time highs, we’ll see the yen being bought and the dollar, and flows into Treasuries as well.”
Early market commentary suggested Trump’s shooting at a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday could also prompt traders to increase his likelihood of success in the November election. His support for looser fiscal policy and higher tariffs is generally seen as likely to benefit the dollar and weaken Treasuries.
An indicator of market sentiment heading into the weekend: Bitcoin surged above $60,000, likely reflecting Trump’s pro-crypto stance.
Other assets positively linked to the so-called Trump trade include stocks of energy companies, private prisons, credit card companies and health insurers.
Traders will also be closely watching market measures of expected volatility on Monday, such as those in the tariff-sensitive Chinese yuan and Mexican peso, which have begun to price in the U.S. vote.
Trump said he was shot in the right ear after a shooting at his rally. His campaign said in a statement that he was “fine” after the incident, which prompted him to rush off the stage.
“Currencies will be the first major market on Monday in Asia to react to the weekend’s shots. There’s potential for extra volatility, and getting a clear reading could be especially difficult because liquidity will be hurt by Japan’s national holiday,” said Garfield Reynolds, Asia team leader for Bloomberg Markets Live.
Strategists had already expected a volatile run-up to the election, particularly as Democrats are still agonizing over President Joe Biden’s candidacy after his poor performance in last month’s debate raised questions about his age. Investors were also grappling with the possibility that the election could end in a drawn-out dispute or political violence.
But there is little precedent for events like those in Pennsylvania. When President Ronald Reagan was shot four decades ago, the stock market plunged before closing early. The next day, March 31, 1981, the S&P 500 rose more than 1% and benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell 9 basis points to 13.13%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Bond investors should pay particular attention as the attack is likely to boost Trump’s election chances and ultimately lead to concerns about the fiscal outlook, according to Marko Papic, chief strategist at California-based BCA Research Inc.
“The bond market must at some point become aware of President Trump’s greater chances of winning the White House than any of his rivals,” Papic wrote. “And I continue to believe that as his chances increase, so too must the likelihood of a bond market revolt.”
Kyle Rodda, senior financial markets analyst at Capital.com, said he was seeing client flows into Bitcoin and gold following the shooting.
“This news marks a turning point in American policy norms,” he said. “For markets, it means safe-haven trades, but more tilted toward non-traditional safe-havens.”
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News / Business / Latest Business News Live Updates Today, July 11, 2024
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Jio Financial share price: Should you buy this Reliance group stock on Monday ahead of Q1 FY2024 results?
Q1 2024 Results: Jio Financial Share Price will be in focus on Monday as the Reliance Group company has a fixed board meeting on July 15, 2024 to consider and approve the company’s unaudited standalone and consolidated financial results. Trust Group company informed about the Q1 2024 Results date on Wednesday last week via an exchange filing. According to stock market experts, Jio Financial Services Limited is poised to deliver impressive Q1 results for FY25 on solid operating income. They have forecast a healthy QoQ PAT for the company in Q1 FY25.
Jio Financial Services News
Speaking on the Jio Financial Services Q1 2024 results, Manish Chowdhury, Head of Research, StoxBox, said, “We believe Jio Financial Services is poised to deliver impressive results in Q1FY25 aided by its operating income, which is likely to show robust growth driven by strong investment income, which in turn should lead to healthy PAT growth on a sequential basis. Jio Financial Services continues to make strategic moves such as launching digital products and expanding its ecosystem, with a clear focus on future growth. The company has announced plans to introduce products for lending against stocks and mutual funds, leveraging Jio’s large user base, which could be a significant growth driver in the coming quarters.”
“Furthermore, with the NBFC receiving RBI approval to become a primary investment company, Jio Financial Services is well-positioned to unlock value from its investments. Overall, we expect the company to report robust numbers in the upcoming quarter,” the StoxBox expert added.
Jio Financial Stock Target Price
Speaking about the technical outlook of Jio Financial share price, Ganesh Dongre, Senior Manager, Technical Research at Anand Rathi, said, “Jio Financial Services share price is poised to make a fresh high at the ₹260 apiece level. If the stock breaks above this mark, the Reliance Group stock could make a fresh high by touching the ₹290-₹295 zone. Hence, those with Jio Finance stock in their portfolio are advised to stick to the script by keeping a stop loss at ₹205. If the stock breaks above ₹260 decisively, then one can upgrade the stop loss at ₹240 for the near-term target of ₹295.”
On the advice to new buyers regarding Jio Financial stock, Ganesh Dongre said, “New buyers are advised to wait for the breakout. Once the stock breaks above ₹260, one can buy this Reliance Group stock at the short term target of ₹295, keeping a stop loss of ₹240 apiece.”
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or brokerage firms, and not of Mint. Investors are advised to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
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