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Orange juice crisis motivates search for alternative fruits

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Orange juice crisis motivates search for alternative fruits

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Orange juice prices have soared to record levels, driven by bad weather and illness in Brazil, the world’s biggest exporter, prompting manufacturers to explore whether they can use tangerines to make the drink.

Orange juice futures – which allow industry participants to hedge against price swings – have been in crisis since late 2022, when a hurricane, then a cold snap, devastated hectares of orange groves in Florida, the main producing region in the USA, second largest producer in the world. But the recovery accelerated sharply this month as the prospect of a bleak harvest in Brazil sent the market into panic.

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Orange juice concentrate futures, traded on the Intercontinental Exchange in New York, hit $4.92 per pound on Tuesday, nearly double the price a year ago.

“This is a crisis,” said Kees Cools, president of the International Fruit and Vegetable Juice Association (IFU). “We’ve never seen anything like it, even during big freezes and big hurricanes.”

The crippling shortage has raised fears of a price hike that will hit consumers and fundamentally reshape the global orange juice industry, according to the IFU.

Typically, manufacturers are able to overcome flavor differences from one season to the next by mixing stocks of frozen orange juice – which has a two-year shelf life – from the last season with the most recent harvest. But three consecutive years of decreasing supply have depleted stocks.

The long-term solution to the scarcity of oranges, according to Cools, could be to produce orange juice from tangerines, whose trees are more resistant to climate change in the growing regions.

The only long-term option “without touching the naturalness and image of the product” could be “using different species of fruit”, said Cools.

The industry is already experimenting. In Japan, which normally imports 90 percent of its orange juice, mainly from fruit grown in Brazil, the supply crunch has been exacerbated by a weak yen, further increasing import costs. Seven & i Holdings, owner of the 7-Eleven supermarket chain, has turned to the country’s domestic tangerine supply, launching a tangerine and orange juice product.

The IFU was considering embarking on the regulatory process to allow the drink to contain citrus fruits other than oranges, Cools said. This would require legislative change, first in the Codex Alimentarius food standards code established by UN bodies, and then at the national level, such as by the US Food and Drug Administration.

The current supply shortage dates back 20 years, when citrus greening – an incurable disease transmitted by sap-sucking psyllid insects that turns the tree’s fruit bitter before killing them completely – was first detected in the US.

By 2008, it had spread throughout Florida, which historically accounted for more than 80% of the US supply. Two decades ago, Florida produced about 240 million cases of orange juice a year, according to Cools. Today, exacerbated by climate change, the number has fallen to just 17 million.

Brazil intervened to make up for the deficit, but now the South American agricultural powerhouse is also beginning to face difficulties. Production this year fell by a quarter, to 232 million boxes of oranges, according to estimates from Fundecitrus, the citrus growers’ organization.

Brazilian orange groves have been hit by above-average temperatures and below-average rainfall, said Andrés Padilla, an analyst at Rabobank. Less than a third of farms were irrigated and even these had “struggled to survive”, he said.

Rabobank estimates that nearly 40 percent of orange groves in the country’s main southeastern producing region are infected with citrus greening.

The disease also causes oranges to fall earlier, meaning farmers tend to harvest earlier than they normally would, again affecting the “flavor profile,” Padilla said, adding that this “creates challenges for the industry.” of orange juice.”

The only way to cure the disease was to uproot the tree, “which the farmer doesn’t like to do because there are still oranges,” Cools said. “But the yields are bad and the quality [of the fruit] is bad.”

Industry executives say consumers will likely feel the impact for years. Many manufacturers are already passing on increased costs to their customers.

“Due to these turbulent and uncertain factors, both globally and in the UK, we have had to review the prices and sizes of our drinks,” said Sarah Baldwin, chief executive of Purity Soft Drinks.

Meanwhile, consumer demand shows no signs of slowing down. Before the coronavirus pandemic, some Americans ditched orange juice, concerned about its sugar content, and turned to supplements to get their daily dose of vitamin C, said Jack Scoville, a broker at Price Futures Group in Chicago. But “during Covid a lot of people discovered juicing again,” he said.

Additional reporting by Michael Pooler in São Paulo

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Breakfast on Wall Street: The Week Ahead

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The spotlight next week will shift somewhat to the Federal Reserve’s second-quarter earnings season and monetary policy. Market watchers will be treated to results from several major names, including Dow 30 components Goldman Sachs (GS), UnitedHealth (UNH), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and American Express (AXP), along with streaming giant Netflix (NFLX).

The Fed will still attract some attention as investors will be eager to hear from a packed lineup of central bank speakers just before the policy meeting lockout period.

In terms of the economic calendar, after fifteen days of labor market and inflation indicators, activity data will gain momentum in the form of the latest retail sales and industrial production reports.

Earnings Highlight: Monday, July 15 – Goldman Sachs (GS) and BlackRock (Black). See the full earnings calendar.

Earnings Highlight: Tuesday, July 16 – UnitedHealth (UNH), Bank of America (BAC), Progressive (PGR), Morgan Stanley (IN), PNC Financial (PNC) and JB Hunt Transport (JBHT). See the full earnings calendar.

Earnings Highlight: Wednesday, July 17 – Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), US Bancorp (USB), Morgan Children (KMI), United Airlines (UAL) and Ally Financial (ALLY). See the full earnings calendar.

Earnings Highlight: Thursday, July 18 – Netflix (NFLX), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Black stone (BX), Domino’s pizza (ZDP) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM). See the full earnings calendar.

Earnings Highlight: Friday, July 19 – American Express (AXP), Halliburton (THANKS) and Travelers (VRT (return to recoverable value)) See the full earnings calendar.

IPO Observation: Hospital and healthcare clinic operator Ardent Health Partners (TARDT), insurance service provider Twfg (TWFG) and the biotechnology company Lirum Therapeutics (LRTX) are expected to price their IPOs and begin trading next week. The analyst quiet period ends at Rectitude (RECT) to free up analysts to publish ratings.

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Trump shooting: Gold could hit record high, dollar and cryptocurrencies set to jump

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Police cars outside the residence of Thomas Matthew Crooks, the alleged shooter at a Trump rally on Saturday, investigate the area in Pennsylvania. In the aftermath of the incident, one rally attendee was killed, two rally attendees are in critical condition and Donald Trump suffered a non-fatal gunshot wound. The shooter is dead after being killed by the United States Secret Service. (Photo by Kyle Mazza/Anadolu via Getty Images)

Police cars outside the residence of Thomas Matthew Crooks, the suspected shooter at a Trump rally on Saturday, investigate the area in Pennsylvania. Following the incident, one rally attendee was killed, two rally attendees are in critical condition and Donald Trump suffered a non-fatal gunshot wound. The shooter is dead after being shot dead by the United States Secret Service. (Photo by Kyle Mazza/Anadolu via Getty Images)

Investors will initially favor traditional safe-haven assets and may lean toward trades more closely tied to former President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the White House after he survived an assassination attempt, according to market watchers.

“There will undoubtedly be some protectionist or safe-haven flows into Asia early this morning,” said Nick Twidale, chief market analyst at ATFX Global Markets. “I suspect gold could test all-time highs, we’ll see the yen being bought and the dollar, and flows into Treasuries as well.”

Early market commentary suggested Trump’s shooting at a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday could also prompt traders to increase his likelihood of success in the November election. His support for looser fiscal policy and higher tariffs is generally seen as likely to benefit the dollar and weaken Treasuries.

An indicator of market sentiment heading into the weekend: Bitcoin surged above $60,000, likely reflecting Trump’s pro-crypto stance.

Other assets positively linked to the so-called Trump trade include stocks of energy companies, private prisons, credit card companies and health insurers.

Traders will also be closely watching market measures of expected volatility on Monday, such as those in the tariff-sensitive Chinese yuan and Mexican peso, which have begun to price in the U.S. vote.

Trump said he was shot in the right ear after a shooting at his rally. His campaign said in a statement that he was “fine” after the incident, which prompted him to rush off the stage.

“Currencies will be the first major market on Monday in Asia to react to the weekend’s shots. There’s potential for extra volatility, and getting a clear reading could be especially difficult because liquidity will be hurt by Japan’s national holiday,” said Garfield Reynolds, Asia team leader for Bloomberg Markets Live.

Strategists had already expected a volatile run-up to the election, particularly as Democrats are still agonizing over President Joe Biden’s candidacy after his poor performance in last month’s debate raised questions about his age. Investors were also grappling with the possibility that the election could end in a drawn-out dispute or political violence.

But there is little precedent for events like those in Pennsylvania. When President Ronald Reagan was shot four decades ago, the stock market plunged before closing early. The next day, March 31, 1981, the S&P 500 rose more than 1% and benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell 9 basis points to 13.13%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Bond investors should pay particular attention as the attack is likely to boost Trump’s election chances and ultimately lead to concerns about the fiscal outlook, according to Marko Papic, chief strategist at California-based BCA Research Inc.

“The bond market must at some point become aware of President Trump’s greater chances of winning the White House than any of his rivals,” Papic wrote. “And I continue to believe that as his chances increase, so too must the likelihood of a bond market revolt.”

Kyle Rodda, senior financial markets analyst at Capital.com, said he was seeing client flows into Bitcoin and gold following the shooting.

“This news marks a turning point in American policy norms,” he said. “For markets, it means safe-haven trades, but more tilted toward non-traditional safe-havens.”

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Latest Business News Live Updates Today, July 11, 2024

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Latest Business News Live Updates Today, July 11, 2024

Follow us for stories on Bill Gates, Elon Musk, Mukesh Ambani, Gautam Adani as we bring you everything that’s happening in the business world. Follow the latest gold and silver prices here too. Stay in the know on all things business with us.

Latest news on July 11, 2024: Airtel says its new Xstream Fiber plans bundle over 350 live TV channels (Official Photo) (Reuters) Disclaimer: This is an AI-generated live blog and has not been edited by Hindustan Times staff.

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Jio Financial share price: Should you buy this Reliance group stock on Monday ahead of Q1 FY2024 results?

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Jio Financial share price: Should you buy this Reliance group stock on Monday ahead of Q1 FY2024 results?

Q1 2024 Results: Jio Financial Share Price will be in focus on Monday as the Reliance Group company has a fixed board meeting on July 15, 2024 to consider and approve the company’s unaudited standalone and consolidated financial results. Trust Group company informed about the Q1 2024 Results date on Wednesday last week via an exchange filing. According to stock market experts, Jio Financial Services Limited is poised to deliver impressive Q1 results for FY25 on solid operating income. They have forecast a healthy QoQ PAT for the company in Q1 FY25.

Jio Financial Services News

Speaking on the Jio Financial Services Q1 2024 results, Manish Chowdhury, Head of Research, StoxBox, said, “We believe Jio Financial Services is poised to deliver impressive results in Q1FY25 aided by its operating income, which is likely to show robust growth driven by strong investment income, which in turn should lead to healthy PAT growth on a sequential basis. Jio Financial Services continues to make strategic moves such as launching digital products and expanding its ecosystem, with a clear focus on future growth. The company has announced plans to introduce products for lending against stocks and mutual funds, leveraging Jio’s large user base, which could be a significant growth driver in the coming quarters.”

“Furthermore, with the NBFC receiving RBI approval to become a primary investment company, Jio Financial Services is well-positioned to unlock value from its investments. Overall, we expect the company to report robust numbers in the upcoming quarter,” the StoxBox expert added.

Jio Financial Stock Target Price

Speaking about the technical outlook of Jio Financial share price, Ganesh Dongre, Senior Manager, Technical Research at Anand Rathi, said, “Jio Financial Services share price is poised to make a fresh high at the ₹260 apiece level. If the stock breaks above this mark, the Reliance Group stock could make a fresh high by touching the ₹290-₹295 zone. Hence, those with Jio Finance stock in their portfolio are advised to stick to the script by keeping a stop loss at ₹205. If the stock breaks above ₹260 decisively, then one can upgrade the stop loss at ₹240 for the near-term target of ₹295.”

On the advice to new buyers regarding Jio Financial stock, Ganesh Dongre said, “New buyers are advised to wait for the breakout. Once the stock breaks above ₹260, one can buy this Reliance Group stock at the short term target of ₹295, keeping a stop loss of ₹240 apiece.”

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or brokerage firms, and not of Mint. Investors are advised to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions.

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