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After a very strong start to 2024, during which the UK economy achieved its strongest growth in two years, things stagnated again in April.

The fact that the economy stagnated during April was no surprise, given a few factors.

One of them was the start of Easter, which caused some consumer spending that would normally have occurred in April to be brought forward to March.

The other, more pertinent factor was the climate.

The Office for National Statistics notes in its statement that rainfall during April was 155% higher than the long-term average – making this the wettest April in more than a decade.

The arrival of Storm Kathleen late in the first week of April brought heavy rain to Scotland, Wales, parts of Northern Ireland and the West Country.

In some parts of the country, things were even worse, with Edinburgh recording its second wettest April in 188 years. The last few weeks of April were also notably colder than normal.

All of this appears to have had an impact on a wide range of sectors of the economy, including retail, construction – which was particularly affected by the strong winds – and bars, restaurants and cafes.

The good news for the Prime Minister, such as it is, is that during the three months to the end of April, the economy grew by 0.7%.

This represents a modest degree of momentum carried over from the first three months of the year and is still a very reasonable pace given the recent past.

The best news is that things will likely have improved by May.

Survey data for May, particularly the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) outlook survey, suggests that the services sector – which represents just over three-quarters of UK economic activity – continued to expand during the month, while the manufacturing industry looks set to make a comeback. also for growth.

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