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From the crumbling NHS to the economic crisis, why Rishi Sunak lost the UK election
New Delhi:
Out with the old and in with the new (sort of), UK voters said on Friday, delivering Rishi SunakThe Conservatives suffered a resounding defeat in the general election, losing almost 250 seats in the 650-seat House of Commons. And Sir Keir StarmerThe Labour Party has been given the keys to the castle.
Mr Starmer and his “new” Labour will now form the next government. Addressing a crowd of party faithful at a dawn victory rally in central London, he declared the UK “reclaims its future”.
The scale of the Conservatives’ defeat is singular; in power for 14 years, the party was defeated in Wales and Scotland, and saw some of its most senior leaders, including former Prime Minister Liz Truss, defeated.
Labour Party Landslide
But perhaps the most punishing blow – the BBC is reporting that the Conservatives have lost seats, in the shire counties of England, that they have held since the early 20th century. For example, Labour’s Joe Morris defeated the Conservative Party’s Guy Opperman to end the Conservative Party’s 100-year hold on the seat of Hexham.
READ | ‘I’m sorry’: Rishi Sunak concedes defeat in UK election
The Conservatives are set for one of their worst returns in a general election, and Labour, with more than 400 seats, the best. Exit polls predicted exactly that scenario, giving Mr Starmer 405 seats.
Collapse of the Conservatives
Rishi Sunak, the outgoing prime minister, has called for a snap election in May.
The warning signs were there then; indeed, they had been there for several weeks, if not months, before, as UK voters struggled with a cost-of-living crisis, a growing immigration problem, and poor infrastructure and healthcare, among other issues, and the Conservatives faced a serious image problem.
READ | Labour wins UK election, first defeat for Rishi Sunak’s party since 2010
At that point, the Conservatives – asking the British public for permission to install a sixth Prime Minister since 2010 – were already 20 points behind a rejuvenated Labour, but Mr Sunak seemed to believe he could close and reform the gap. Unfortunately, that did not happen.
Why did the Labour Party defeat the Conservatives?
Choice. But the crumbling NHS, or National Health Service, and the state of the economy, and associated concerns such as rising prices, top the list of reasons for defeat.
A survey by the IPSOS Issues Index in June found that concerns about cutting funding for the NHS – a free public healthcare programme that any other country would love to have – topped the list, followed by the economy, immigration, rising prices, housing and schools, defence and counter-terrorism and crime.
Mr Sunak scored poorly on all of those points, including overseeing the country’s lowest growth rate since the early 19th century and a sharp rise in the cost of living, the highest in 41 years.
O British economy has slowed significantly over the past decade, even taking into account the global crisis triggered by the Covid pandemic. GDP per capita grew by just 4.3 percent from 2007 to 2023.
In the previous 16 years, that number was a staggering 46%.
This meant that income stagnated.
A report by the non-partisan think tank Centres for Cities found that Britons, on average, had ÂŁ10,200 less to save or spend between 2010 and 2022, compared to growth rates from 1998-2010.
And the UK’s national debt — ÂŁ2.7 trillion — is the highest it has been since the 1960s.
There appeared to be some relief soon; in May, the International Monetary Fund spoke of a “soft landing” for the economy and upgraded its growth forecast by 0.2 percentage points to 0.7.
And it was perhaps because of this expectation that Mr Sunak called for an early election.
O NHS is seen by many as the crown jewel of British government public service.
The funding of the UK’s free national healthcare system, the NHS, has been a key issue (File).
The Conservatives have repeatedly stressed the importance of the NHS, but this concern has not appeared to translate into local support for doctors, nurses and medical professionals.
Budget allocations under the Conservatives paint a clear picture. Since they came to power in 2010, health spending has grown by an average of 2.8% per year, compared with 3.6% over the past 50 years. That includes the pandemic period.
In April, there were an estimated 7.6 million people waiting for treatment under the NHS scheme, of whom more than 50,000 had been on the list for more than a year. The average waiting time was 14 weeks.
The number of people waiting for medical care, including those with serious conditions, has tripled under the Conservative government, according to NHS figures published by Al Jazeera.
Brexit also had its say, with movement restrictions meaning medical professionals from mainland Europe either couldn’t be hired or chose not to apply. As horrible as that sounds, this was good news for India, with the NHS turning to its former colony to fill more than 2,000 doctor positions.
Immigration was also a problem. Mr Sunak’s government had promised to crack down on illegal immigrants into the UK, but its Rwanda policy – ​​supposed to act as a major deterrent – ​​has failed to deliver.
In fact, two years after its announcement, no planes have taken off for the African country.
According to Sky NewsThe Conservatives have spent more than ÂŁ300 million on the scheme, which they say would stop illegal immigrants entering the UK in small boats across the English Channel.
Under this policy, those captured would be sent to Rwanda while they seek asylum.
As of March-end, a total of 1.18 lakh people were awaiting an initial decision on their application.
The rise cost of living and shooting House pricesas well as steep rental price increaseshave also been a problem that conservatives can’t seem to control.
Contributions by Truss, Johnson
It was not just Mr Sunak’s failures that led to the Tories’ downfall.
Boris Johnson was elected Conservative leader and prime minister in July 2019, just before the pandemic struck. His dishevelled appearance and chaotic leadership precipitated a revolt by his ministers and, of course, the “Partygate” scandal, which referred to parties at 10 Downing Street during a lockdown.
Mr Johnson resigned in June last year following an investigation he called a “witch hunt”.
The last three Conservative prime ministers – Rishi Sunak, Liz Truss and Boris Johnson (File).
He was followed by Ms Truss, the UK’s fourth female prime minister and its shortest-serving leader.
READ | UK in crisis: why the country has seen 3 PMs in 3 years
Ms Truss – who lost her South West Norfolk seat – has faced criticism for her handling of the economy, including a controversial mini-budget that led to market turmoil. Her leadership has been further damaged by policy U-turns and a loss of confidence among MPs.
What now for the Labour Party?
Mr Starmer’s leadership was instrumental in the Labour Party’s recovery.
Since taking office in early 2020, he has repositioned the party to the center and fixed internal problems such as infighting and anti-Semitism.
Looking ahead, he will want to avoid repeating Tory mistakes, including in October 2022, when Ms Truss’s government proposed unfunded tax cuts that spooked markets and devalued the pound.
This reckless attitude cost him his job.
“We did it. Thank you very much… you have changed our country,” Mr Starmer told triumphant supporters at a victory rally in central London. “(But) with a mandate like this comes a huge responsibility… Today we begin the next chapter… we begin the work of change, the mission of national renewal and we begin to rebuild.”
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The spotlight next week will shift somewhat to the Federal Reserve’s second-quarter earnings season and monetary policy. Market watchers will be treated to results from several major names, including Dow 30 components Goldman Sachs (GS), UnitedHealth (UNH), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and American Express (AXP), along with streaming giant Netflix (NFLX).
The Fed will still attract some attention as investors will be eager to hear from a packed lineup of central bank speakers just before the policy meeting lockout period.
In terms of the economic calendar, after fifteen days of labor market and inflation indicators, activity data will gain momentum in the form of the latest retail sales and industrial production reports.
Earnings Highlight: Monday, July 15 – Goldman Sachs (GS) and BlackRock (Black). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Tuesday, July 16 – UnitedHealth (UNH), Bank of America (BAC), Progressive (PGR), Morgan Stanley (IN), PNC Financial (PNC) and JB Hunt Transport (JBHT). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Wednesday, July 17 – Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), US Bancorp (USB), Morgan Children (KMI), United Airlines (UAL) and Ally Financial (ALLY). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Thursday, July 18 – Netflix (NFLX), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Black stone (BX), Domino’s pizza (ZDP) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Friday, July 19 – American Express (AXP), Halliburton (THANKS) and Travelers (VRT (return to recoverable value)) See the full earnings calendar.
IPO Observation: Hospital and healthcare clinic operator Ardent Health Partners (TARDT), insurance service provider Twfg (TWFG) and the biotechnology company Lirum Therapeutics (LRTX) are expected to price their IPOs and begin trading next week. The analyst quiet period ends at Rectitude (RECT) to free up analysts to publish ratings.
Police cars outside the residence of Thomas Matthew Crooks, the suspected shooter at a Trump rally on Saturday, investigate the area in Pennsylvania. Following the incident, one rally attendee was killed, two rally attendees are in critical condition and Donald Trump suffered a non-fatal gunshot wound. The shooter is dead after being shot dead by the United States Secret Service. (Photo by Kyle Mazza/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Investors will initially favor traditional safe-haven assets and may lean toward trades more closely tied to former President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the White House after he survived an assassination attempt, according to market watchers.
“There will undoubtedly be some protectionist or safe-haven flows into Asia early this morning,” said Nick Twidale, chief market analyst at ATFX Global Markets. “I suspect gold could test all-time highs, we’ll see the yen being bought and the dollar, and flows into Treasuries as well.”
Early market commentary suggested Trump’s shooting at a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday could also prompt traders to increase his likelihood of success in the November election. His support for looser fiscal policy and higher tariffs is generally seen as likely to benefit the dollar and weaken Treasuries.
An indicator of market sentiment heading into the weekend: Bitcoin surged above $60,000, likely reflecting Trump’s pro-crypto stance.
Other assets positively linked to the so-called Trump trade include stocks of energy companies, private prisons, credit card companies and health insurers.
Traders will also be closely watching market measures of expected volatility on Monday, such as those in the tariff-sensitive Chinese yuan and Mexican peso, which have begun to price in the U.S. vote.
Trump said he was shot in the right ear after a shooting at his rally. His campaign said in a statement that he was “fine” after the incident, which prompted him to rush off the stage.
“Currencies will be the first major market on Monday in Asia to react to the weekend’s shots. There’s potential for extra volatility, and getting a clear reading could be especially difficult because liquidity will be hurt by Japan’s national holiday,” said Garfield Reynolds, Asia team leader for Bloomberg Markets Live.
Strategists had already expected a volatile run-up to the election, particularly as Democrats are still agonizing over President Joe Biden’s candidacy after his poor performance in last month’s debate raised questions about his age. Investors were also grappling with the possibility that the election could end in a drawn-out dispute or political violence.
But there is little precedent for events like those in Pennsylvania. When President Ronald Reagan was shot four decades ago, the stock market plunged before closing early. The next day, March 31, 1981, the S&P 500 rose more than 1% and benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell 9 basis points to 13.13%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Bond investors should pay particular attention as the attack is likely to boost Trump’s election chances and ultimately lead to concerns about the fiscal outlook, according to Marko Papic, chief strategist at California-based BCA Research Inc.
“The bond market must at some point become aware of President Trump’s greater chances of winning the White House than any of his rivals,” Papic wrote. “And I continue to believe that as his chances increase, so too must the likelihood of a bond market revolt.”
Kyle Rodda, senior financial markets analyst at Capital.com, said he was seeing client flows into Bitcoin and gold following the shooting.
“This news marks a turning point in American policy norms,” he said. “For markets, it means safe-haven trades, but more tilted toward non-traditional safe-havens.”
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News / Business / Latest Business News Live Updates Today, July 11, 2024
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Jio Financial share price: Should you buy this Reliance group stock on Monday ahead of Q1 FY2024 results?
Q1 2024 Results: Jio Financial Share Price will be in focus on Monday as the Reliance Group company has a fixed board meeting on July 15, 2024 to consider and approve the company’s unaudited standalone and consolidated financial results. Trust Group company informed about the Q1 2024 Results date on Wednesday last week via an exchange filing. According to stock market experts, Jio Financial Services Limited is poised to deliver impressive Q1 results for FY25 on solid operating income. They have forecast a healthy QoQ PAT for the company in Q1 FY25.
Jio Financial Services News
Speaking on the Jio Financial Services Q1 2024 results, Manish Chowdhury, Head of Research, StoxBox, said, “We believe Jio Financial Services is poised to deliver impressive results in Q1FY25 aided by its operating income, which is likely to show robust growth driven by strong investment income, which in turn should lead to healthy PAT growth on a sequential basis. Jio Financial Services continues to make strategic moves such as launching digital products and expanding its ecosystem, with a clear focus on future growth. The company has announced plans to introduce products for lending against stocks and mutual funds, leveraging Jio’s large user base, which could be a significant growth driver in the coming quarters.”
“Furthermore, with the NBFC receiving RBI approval to become a primary investment company, Jio Financial Services is well-positioned to unlock value from its investments. Overall, we expect the company to report robust numbers in the upcoming quarter,” the StoxBox expert added.
Jio Financial Stock Target Price
Speaking about the technical outlook of Jio Financial share price, Ganesh Dongre, Senior Manager, Technical Research at Anand Rathi, said, “Jio Financial Services share price is poised to make a fresh high at the ₹260 apiece level. If the stock breaks above this mark, the Reliance Group stock could make a fresh high by touching the ₹290-₹295 zone. Hence, those with Jio Finance stock in their portfolio are advised to stick to the script by keeping a stop loss at ₹205. If the stock breaks above ₹260 decisively, then one can upgrade the stop loss at ₹240 for the near-term target of ₹295.”
On the advice to new buyers regarding Jio Financial stock, Ganesh Dongre said, “New buyers are advised to wait for the breakout. Once the stock breaks above â‚ą260, one can buy this Reliance Group stock at the short term target of â‚ą295, keeping a stop loss of â‚ą240 apiece.”
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or brokerage firms, and not of Mint. Investors are advised to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
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