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ETFs could capture half of current U.S. mutual fund assets, says Citi

FinCrypto Staff

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ETFs could capture half of current U.S. mutual fund assets, says Citi

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The fast-growing exchange-traded fund industry could take over half the money currently held by long-term U.S. mutual funds in the coming decade, according to Citi estimates.

U.S. investors have been gradually moving away from mutual funds and toward ETFs for at least a decade, attracted by lower costs, better liquidity and greater tax efficiency. Mutual funds, excluding money market funds, have seen net outflows in nine of the past 10 years in the United States, according to data from the Investment Company Institute, even as ETFs have saved constant entries.

Despite this, the mutual fund industry remains much larger, with $19.6 trillion in long-term funds at the end of 2023, according to ICI, eclipsing the $8.1 trillion in state-listed ETFs -United.

However, this situation could reverse over the coming decade, according to Citi, which estimates that $6-10 trillion of the money remaining in long-term mutual funds is at risk of being captured by AND F.

“The U.S. asset management industry is clearly in an ongoing paradigm shift,” said Scott Chronert, global head of ETF research at Citi. “The flow trends speak for themselves.

“In total, we anticipate that between $6 trillion and $10 trillion in additional mutual fund assets under management are potentially at risk of being replaced or cannibalized by ETFs,” he added.

Mutual funds held outside of tax-exempt retirement accounts are most vulnerable to predation because they are unable to compete with many ETFs’ ability to defer capital gains taxes that accumulate within a fund.

Citi estimates that between half and all of the $2.4 trillion currently held by retail investors in non-tax-exempt mutual funds is a potential target for replacement by ETFs.

Additionally, between a quarter and half of the $4.1 trillion in equivalent money held by institutional investors, and as much as a fifth of the $1.3 trillion tax-free variable annuity market are also up for grabs.

Line chart of cumulative net flows, U.S. domiciled equity funds (in billions of dollars) showing ETFs supplanting mutual funds for stocks

Chronert pointed to the growing use of model portfolios, which are typically constructed using ETFs, as a key factor driving this trend.

The $11.9 trillion in mutual funds held in tax-exempt retirement structures, such as 401k defined contribution plans and individual retirement accounts, are likely to prove more difficult as ETFs do not benefit from any tax advantage in this area.

Nonetheless, Citi argued that there were a number of trends that would allow ETFs to reduce the dominance of mutual funds in this area.

Line chart of cumulative net flows, U.S. domiciled fixed income funds (in billions of dollars) showing that fixed income trends are less clear

First, IRAs represent a growing share of retirement assets in the United States, from less than 20 percent in 1995 to about 35 percent today.

This is relevant because even though “historically, ETFs have not had a place in the 401k menu,” IRAs “are generally much more open in nature than a fixed menu of funds,” meaning that ETFs ” certainly have a significant and growing opportunity. here,” Chronert said.

Mutual funds’ share of IRA assets has already declined by about 10 percentage points to 40 to 45 percent since 2005, Citi found.

Second, even within 401ks, more and more programs now offer a self-directed brokerage option, giving savers access to a much wider range of investments. ETFs now represent 23 percent of self-managed assets, up from 12 percent a decade ago.

Other opportunities abound. The vast majority of 401k savers under the age of 35 simply invest in a target date fund, designed to adopt an age-appropriate level of risk. FactSet research suggests that many of these target date funds in turn use ETFs to manage this upward trajectory.

Finally, Citi believes that demographics will play a role as younger generations – who show stronger preferences for ETFs – create assets.

Combining this, Citi estimates that 50% to 60% of the $7.4 trillion held by retail investors in retirement accounts could be captured by ETFs, as well as a small slice of the $4.5 trillion in institutional money and variable annuity rate.

Combined with its estimates for non-tax-exempt investments, this would mean that $6.3 billion to $10 billion of the $19.6 billion currently held by U.S.-domiciled mutual funds would be a potential target for ETFs.

But others saw things a little differently.

Bryan Armour, director of passive strategies research for North America at Morningstar, noted that in 2022 and 2023, “something like $1.6 billion has been withdrawn from mutual funds and a large part of that went to ETFs,” adding, “I don’t know if there are mutual funds. a natural point where [that flow] stop “.

However, Armor believes that mutual funds have some advantages over ETFs, such as the ability to reach out to new investors if a fund grows too large. He also saw use cases for assets such as private credit, which mutual funds can hold but ETFs cannot.

“The 800-pound gorilla in the room,” Armor said, is an opportunity for the Securities and Exchange Commission to approve asset managers’ many requests to copy the “ETF structure as a share class ” which helped propel Vanguard’s rapid expansion, the patent for which has now expired.

Obtaining approval would potentially make affected pre-existing mutual funds more tax efficient, easing pressure on investors to switch to an ETF.

However, when it comes to retirement plans, Armor believes that mutual funds are “under attack more from collective investment funds than from ETFs.”

CITs, which make up 38 percent of active 401Ks, according to ICI and BrightScope, “are cheaper to manage.” [than mutual funds] and they may have variable fees [meaning] they can negotiate lower fees for larger packages,” Armor said.

Research firm Cerulli Associates agrees with Armor on this point, arguing that the growing adoption of CITs in the DC market “has raised the question of whether mutual funds are heading toward obsolescence.”

“CITs have been gaining market share and are outpacing 401k mutual funds,” said Adam Barnett, principal analyst at Cerulli. “CITs, overall, have much lower management fees than mutual funds of similar composition.”

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ETFs

Missed the Bull Market Resumption? 3 ETFs to Help You Build Wealth for Decades

FinCrypto Staff

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Motley Fool

The market’s rebound from the 2022 bear market was not only unexpected. It was also bigger than expected. S&P 500 The stock price is up 60% from the bear market low, despite no clear signs at the time that such a rally was in the works. Chances are you missed at least part of this current rally.

If so, don’t be discouraged: you’re in good company. You’re also far from financially ruined. While you can’t go back and make up for the missed opportunity, for long-term investors, the growth potential is much greater.

If you want to make sure you don’t miss the next big bull run, you might want to tweak your strategy a bit. This time around, you might try buying fewer stocks and focusing more on exchange traded funds (or ETFs), which are often easier to hold when things get tough for the overall market.

With that in mind, here’s a closer look at three very different ETFs to consider buying that could – collectively – complement your portfolio brilliantly.

Let’s start with the basics: dividend growth

Most investors naturally favor growth, choosing growth stocks to achieve that goal. And the strategy usually works. However, most long-term investors may not realize that they can get the same type of net return with boring dividend stocks like the ones held in the portfolio. Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (NYSEMKT: VIG) which reflects the S&P US Dividend Growth Index.

As the name suggests, this Vanguard fund and its underlying index hold stocks that not only pay consistent dividends, but also have a history of consistently increasing dividends. To be included in the S&P US Dividend Growers Index, a company must have increased its dividend every year for at least the past 10 years. In most cases, however, they have been doing so for much longer.

The ETF’s current dividend yield of just under 1.8% isn’t exactly exciting. In fact, it’s so low that investors might wonder how this fund is keeping up with the broader market, let alone growth stocks. What’s being grossly underestimated here is the sheer magnitude of these stocks. dividend growthOver the past 10 years, its dividend per share has nearly doubled, and more than tripled from 15 years ago.

The reason is that solid dividend stocks generally outperform their non-dividend-paying counterparts. Calculations by mutual fund firm Hartford indicate that since 1973, S&P 500 stocks with a long history of dividend growth have averaged a single-digit annual return, compared with a much more modest 4.3% annual gain for non-dividend-paying stocks, and an average annual return of just 7.7% for an equal-weighted version of the S&P 500. The numbers confirm that there’s a lot to be said for reliable, consistent income.

The story continues

Then add capital appreciation through technology

That said, there’s no particular reason why your portfolio can’t also hold something a little more volatile than a dividend-focused holding. If you can stomach the volatility that’s sure to continue, take a stake in the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQ).

This Invesco ETF (often called the “cubes” or the triple-Q) is based on the Nasdaq-100 index. Typically, this index consists of 100 of the Nasdaq Composite IndexThe index is one of the largest non-financial indices at any given time. It is updated quarterly, although extreme imbalance situations may result in unplanned rebalancing of the index.

That’s not what makes this fund a must-have for many investors, though. It turns out that most high-growth tech companies choose to list their shares through the Nasdaq Sotck exchange rather than other exchanges like the New York Stock Exchange or the American Stock ExchangeNames like Apple, MicrosoftAnd Nvidia are not only Nasdaq-listed securities. They are also the top holdings of this ETF, with Amazon, Meta-platformsand Google’s parent company AlphabetThese are of course some of the highest-yielding stocks on the market in recent years.

This won’t always be the case. Just as companies like Nvidia and Apple have squeezed other names out of the index to make room for their stocks, these current names could also be replaced by other names (although it will likely be a while before that happens). It’s the proverbial life cycle of the market.

This shift, however, will likely be driven by technology companies that are offering revolutionary products and services. Owning a stake in the Invesco QQQ Trust is a simple, low-cost way to ensure you’re invested in at least most of their stocks at the perfect time.

Don’t forget indexing, but try a different approach

Finally, while Triple-Q and Vanguard Dividend Appreciation funds are smart ways to diversify your portfolio over the long term, the good old indexing strategy still works. In other words, rather than risk underperforming the market by trying to beat it, stick to tracking the long-term performance of a broad stock index.

Most investors will opt for something like the SPDR S&P 500 Exchange Traded Fund (NYSEMKT:SPY), which of course mirrors the large-cap S&P 500 index. And if you already own one, great: stick with it.

If and when you have some spare cash to put to good use, consider starting a mid-cap funds as the iShares Core S&P Mid-Cap ETF (NYSEMKT: IJH) instead. Why? Because you’ll likely get better results with this ETF than you will with large-cap index funds. Over the past 30 years, S&P 400 Mid-Cap Index significantly outperformed the S&P 500.

^MID Chart

^MID Chart

The disparate degree of gains actually makes sense. While no one disputes the solid foundations on which most S&P 500 companies are built, they are in many ways victims of their own size: It’s hard to get bigger when you’re already big. This is in contrast to the mid-cap companies that make up the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index. These organizations have moved past their rocky, shaky early years and are just entering their era of high growth. Not all of them will survive this phase, but companies like Advanced microsystems And Super microcomputer Those that survive end up being incredibly rewarding to their patient shareholders.

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John Mackey, former CEO of Amazon’s Whole Foods Market, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Randi Zuckerberg, former director of market development and spokesperson for Facebook and sister of Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. James Brumley has positions in Alphabet. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Advanced Micro Devices, Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Vanguard Specialized Funds – Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF. The Motley Fool recommends Nasdaq and recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a position in Advanced Micro Devices, Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Vanguard Specialized Funds – Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF. The Motley Fool recommends Nasdaq and recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. disclosure policy.

Missed the Bull Market Resumption? 3 ETFs to Help You Build Wealth for Decades was originally published by The Motley Fool

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This Simple ETF Could Turn $500 a Month Into $1 Million

FinCrypto Staff

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This Simple ETF Could Turn $500 a Month Into $1 Million

This large-cap ETF offers investors the potential for above-market returns while minimizing risk.

It’s always inspiring to hear stories of people who invested in a company and made tons of money as the company grew and became successful. While these stories are a testament to the power of investing, they can also be misleading. That’s not because it doesn’t happen often, but because you don’t have to make a big splash on a single company to make a lot of money in the stock market.

Invest regularly in exchange traded funds (AND F) is a great way to build wealth. ETFs allow you to invest in dozens, hundreds, and sometimes thousands of companies in a single investment. For investors looking for an ETF that can help them become millionaires, look no further than the Vanguard Growth ETFs (VUG 0.61%).

A history of outperforming the market

Since its launch in January 2004, this ETF has outperformed the market (based on S&P 500 Back), with an average total return of around 11.6%. The returns are even more impressive when looking back over the past decade, with the ETF posting an average total return of around 15.7%.

Total VUG Performance Level data by YCharts

The ETF’s past success doesn’t mean it will continue on this path, but for the sake of illustration, let’s take a middle ground and assume it averages about 13% annual returns over the long term. Averaging those returns, monthly investments of $500 could top the $1 million mark in just over 25 years.

Assuming (emphasis on the word “assume”) that the ETF continues to generate an average total return of 15.7% over the past decade, investing $500 a month could get you past $1 million in about 23 years. At an annual return of 11.6%, that would take nearly 28 years.

There is no way to predict the future performance of the ETF, but the most important thing is the power of time and Compound profit. Earning $1 million by saving alone is a difficult and unachievable task for most people. However, it becomes much more achievable if you give yourself time and make regular investments, no matter how small.

So why choose the Vanguard Growth ETF?

This ETF can offer investors the best of both worlds. On the one hand, since it only contains large cap stocksIt offers more stability and less volatility than you typically find with smaller growth stocks. At the other end, the focus on growth means it is built with the goal of outperforming the market.

Investing involves a tradeoff between risk and return, and this ETF falls somewhere in the middle for the most part. That’s not just because it only contains large-cap stocks. It’s also because large-cap stocks are leading the way. Here are the ETF’s top 10 holdings:

  • Microsoft: 12.60%
  • Apple: 11.51%
  • Nvidia: 10.61%
  • Alphabet (both share classes): 7.54%
  • Amazon: 6.72%
  • Meta-platforms: 4.21%
  • Eli Lilly: 2.88%
  • You’re here: 1.98%
  • Visa: 1.72%

The Vanguard Growth ETF is not as diversified as other broad ETFs, with the top 10 holdings making up nearly 60% of the fund and the “The Magnificent Seven” with stocks accounting for about 55%. However, many of these companies (particularly mega-cap technology stocks) have been among the best performers in the stock market over the past decade and still have great growth opportunities ahead of them.

MSFT Total Return Level Chart

MSFT Total Return Level data by YCharts

Big tech stocks are expected to continue to see growth in areas such as cloud computing, artificial intelligenceand cybersecurity; Eli Lilly will benefit from advances in biotechnologyTesla is one of the leaders in electric vehicles, which are still in the early stages of development; and Visa is expected to be one of the forerunners as the world moves toward more digital payments.

ETF concentration adds risk, especially if Microsoft, Apple or Nvidia is experiencing a slowdownBut these companies are well positioned to drive long-term growth despite any short-term setbacks that may arise. Consistent investments over time in the Vanguard Growth ETF should pay off for investors.

Randi Zuckerberg, former head of market development and spokesperson for Facebook and sister of Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Stefon Walters has positions in Apple and Microsoft. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, Vanguard Index Funds-Vanguard Growth ETF, and Visa. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a position in shares of Apple and Microsoft. disclosure policy.

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Ethereum ETFs Could Bring in $1 Billion a Month

FinCrypto Staff

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Kraken Executive: Ethereum ETFs Could Amass $1B Monthly

In a recent interview with Bloomberg, Kraken’s chief strategy officer Thomas Perfumo predicted that Ethereum ETFs could attract between $750 million and $1 billion in monthly investments.

“Market sentiment is being priced in. I think the market has priced in something like $750 million to $1 billion of net inflows into Ethereum ETF products each month,” Perfumo said.

In the interviewPerfumo noted that if inflows exceed expectations, it could provide strong support to the industry and potentially drive Ethereum to new record highs.

This creates positive support for the industry, if we go beyond that, note that Bitcoin was at a rate above $2.5 billion

He said

Moreover, the hype around Ethereum ETFs has already sparked some optimism among investors. After the SEC approved the 19b-4 filing, Ethereum’s price jumped 22%, attracting investment into crypto assets.

This price movement shows how sensitive the market is to regulatory changes and the growth potential once ETFs are approved.

Perfumo also highlighted other factors supporting current market sentiment, including the upcoming US elections and a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Recent US CPI data suggests disinflation on a monthly and annual basis, with some traditional firms predicting rate cuts as early as September.

These broader economic factors, combined with developments in the crypto space, are shaping the overall market outlook.

Regarding Kraken’s strategy, Perfumo highlighted the exchange’s goal of driving cryptocurrency adoption through strategic initiatives. When asked about rumors of Kraken going public, he reiterated that the company’s intention is instead to broaden cryptocurrency adoption.

Read also : Invesco, Galaxy Cut Ether ETF Fees to 0.25% in Competitive Market

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Kraken Executive Expects Ethereum ETF Launch to “Lift All Boats”

FinCrypto Staff

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Kraken exec expects Ethereum ETF launch to ‘lift all boats’

Kraken Chief Strategy Officer Thomas Perfumemo said: Ethereum ETFs (ETH) could help the crypto sector while commenting on political developments in the United States.

On July 12, Perfumo told Bloomberg that spot Ethereum ETFs would attract capital flows while drawing attention to crypto, noting:

“It’s a rising tide, which lifts the whole history of the boat.”

Perfumo further explained that the final value of Ethereum “depends on the Ethereum ETF.”

He said the cryptocurrency market is “pricing in” between $750 million and $1 billion in net inflows into Ethereum products on a monthly basis, which would imply that Ethereum could reach all-time highs between $4,000 and $5,000.

Perfumo also compared expectations to Bitcoin’s all-time high in March, which he called a “silent spike” that occurred without any evidence of millions of new investors entering the industry.

Political evolution

Perfumo also commented on political developments. At the beginning of the interview, he said that the results of the US elections “will set the tone for policymaking and the legislative agenda for the next four years.”

He also stressed the importance of legislative action and clarity and noted that recent developments show bipartisan support in Congress.

The House recently voted to pass the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act (FIT21) and attempted to repeal controversial SEC accounting rules with the Senate. However, the president Joe Biden Chosen to veto The resolution.

Perfume said:

“Even if you encounter obstacles at the executive level, [there’s] “There is still good progress to come.”

He added that the Republican Party appears “more pro-crypto.” [and] “more progressive” on the issue, noting Donald Trump plans to attend the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville.

Trump has also made numerous statements in support of pro-crypto policy, including at recent campaign events in Wisconsin And San Francisco.

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