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Chancellor unveils a new era for economic growth
The Chancellor has today (8 July) promised to take immediate action to fix the foundations of the economy, rebuild Britain and make every part of the country better off.
In her first speech as Chancellor, Rachel Reeves pledged to leaders of some of the UK’s pioneering industries to build growth on strong and secure foundations built on stability, investment and reform, and forged through a new partnership with the private sector.
Addressing the difficult economic inheritance this government faces, she committed to taking immediate action to drive sustained economic growth, the only route to improving the prosperity of our country and the living standards of working people.
Setting out her first steps to deliver on the government’s commitments in its manifesto that every action it takes will be based on sound money and economy stability, the Chancellor promised a new economic model that will grow the economy and keep taxes, inflation and mortgages as low as possible.
The Chancellor said had the UK economy grown at the average rate of OECD economies over the fourteen years from 2010, it would be £143.3 billion larger – worth £5,053 for every household in the country. This could have brought in an additional £58 billion in tax revenues in the last year alone to sustain our public services.
Taking decisive action, the government is today announcing a series of measures to lay the foundations for a dynamic, modern and growing economy, including taking urgent steps to build 1.5 million homes over the next five years and the immediate removal of the de facto ban on onshore wind in England, as part of its clean energy mission.
Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves said:
Today I am taking immediate action to fix Britain’s economic foundations.
By growing our economy we can rebuild Britain and make every part of the country better off.
Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner said:
Our country is under new management and a new era for economic growth will be built on secure foundations.
The Chancellor and I will work in lockstep to kickstart the economy, unleashing housebuilding and powering local growth.
Change starts now. We will unblock the bottlenecks and drive forward a transformational package to build the homes people need.
Energy Security and Net Zero Secretary Ed Miliband said:
Every family has paid the price of the ban on onshore wind farms in higher energy bills. This ban has undermined our energy security, put costs on people’s bills – especially those on lower incomes – and held us back in our fight against climate change.
This Government is wasting no time in delivering the bold plan we need to take back control of our energy; boosting our energy independence and cutting bills for families as we tackle the climate crisis.
Getting rid of this ban and giving priority for planning permission for much needed infrastructure sends an immediate signal to investors here and around the world that the UK is back in business, an immediate step in our mission to make Britain a clean energy superpower.
The government is taking swift action on its central growth mission by announcing the following:
Planning
The government is taking swift action to identify and unblock key ‘stalled sites’ to get large housing schemes moving forward, starting with four sites across England to unlock over 14,000 homes: Liverpool Central Docks, Northstowe, Worcester Parkway and Langley Sutton Coldfield.
The Chancellor has also welcomed the Deputy Prime Minister’s commitment to make the economic benefit of development a central consideration when intervening in the planning system. This starts today by recovering two appealed planning applications for data centres in Buckinghamshire and Hertfordshire.
To facilitate this new approach, the Deputy Prime Minister will also write to local mayors and the Office for Investment to ensure that any investment opportunity with important planning considerations that comes across their desks is brought to her attention and to the Chancellor’s. This will help to ensure the planning system can unlock major schemes from clean energy projects and transport infrastructure to film studios and art-entertainment venues.
The Chancellor has also confirmed that the government will support local authorities with 300 additional planning officers across the country.
Further announcements will be made in the coming weeks to accelerate the development of housing and infrastructure, including launching a landmark consultation on an updated, growth-focused National Planning Policy Framework to include mandatory housing targets and a requirement to review greenbelt boundaries where necessary to meet them.
These will prioritise Brownfield and “grey belt” land for development to meet housing targets where needed, partnered with new ‘golden rules’ that will make sure the development this frees up will also deliver thousands of affordable homes, including more for social rent.
Critical major infrastructure
The current planning regime acts as a major brake on economic growth which is why the government will make the changes the country needs to forge ahead with new roads, railways, reservoirs, and other nationally significant infrastructure.
The government will set out new policy intentions for critical infrastructure in the coming months, ahead of updating relevant National Policy Statements within the next 12 months to provide certainty to industry. We will legislate to ensure they are updated at least every 5 years.
The government will also build on the Strategic Spatial Energy Plan which is being developed by the National Energy System Operator to speed up the roll out of clean power, and will seek to expand the use of spatial planning to other infrastructure sectors.
The Chancellor has asked the Secretaries of State for Transport and Energy Security and Net Zero to prioritise taking decisions on critical infrastructure projects which are with them now.
To go further, to help speed up delivery on infrastructure such as transport and energy, the government will review how it can unlock critical infrastructure, without weakening environment protections.
Alongside this, the government will make sure energy projects are prioritised in the planning system and consult on including onshore wind power developments in the Nationally Significant Infrastructure Projects (NSIP) planning regime.
Further details on ending the de facto ban on onshore wind will be set out later by the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, and the Department for Levelling up, Housing and Communities.
Martha Lane Fox, President of the British Chambers of Commerce, said:
Fixing the foundations of the economy can provide businesses with the stability and certainty they need to unleash a wave of investment to create growth and new jobs.
Labour’s pledges to create an industrial strategy, improve trade relations with the EU, and boost skills training all have capacity to make a huge difference.
Today’s commitment to deliver large scale infrastructure at greater pace, especially green energy projects and more housing where people want to live, is very welcome.
But policy must be backed up with better skilled and resourced planning departments to deliver this step change. That’s why the pledge to fund an extra 300 planning officers is so important.
It’s also why the BCC’s Planning Skills Fund has been set up in partnership with Government. It will develop an additional pipeline of new and upskilled planning talent to boost growth in our local economies.
Additional information
For more information, read the Chancellor’s speech text
- Due to previous restrictions, only two onshore wind turbines have been built in England in almost a decade, with projects in the pipeline shrinking by 90%.
- The Chancellor used some facts based on Treasury analysis in her speech to industry leaders today. In the interests of transparency we are publishing more information on this analysis, including some facts not specifically referenced in her speech. We have also set out details of the methodology and sources used for this analysis.
GDP
The UK economy would be £143.3bn (6.3%) larger on an annualised basis in 2024Q1 if it had grown at the OECD average from 2010Q2 to 2024Q1:
This is £2081 per person, or £5053 per household.
Tax receipts would have been £58bn higher in 2023-24 (holding the tax burden constant).
The UK economy would be £159bn (6.9%) larger on an annualised basis in 2024Q1, if it had continued to grow at the average rate seen between 1997Q2 and 2010Q2:
This is £2303 per person, or £5593 per household.
Tax receipts would have been £64bn higher in 2023-24 (holding the tax burden constant).
International forecasts
UK GDP would be 1.4% (£32bn) larger by the end of 2025 if it grew in 2024 and 2025 by the G7 average (compared to the IMF’s UK forecast).
UK GDP per capita would be 1.5% (£497) larger by the end of 2025 if it grew in 2024 and 2025 by the G7 average (compared to the IMF’s UK forecast).
Investment
Since 2010Q2, UK business investment averaged at 9.9% of GDP (compared to the G7 average of 12.6% in this period).
If UK business investment as a share of GDP were at the G7 average since 2010Q2, business investment levels would have been £57.1bn higher on average, per year.
Living standards
If UK living standards, as measured by Real Household Disposable Income (RHDI) per capita, had grown by the same amount between 2010 and 2023 as they had between 1997 and 2010, they would have been £4,238 (16.6%) higher in 2023.
The level of UK RHDI per capita in 2023Q4 would have been 7.7% higher had it grown by the same amount as the G7 average between 2010Q2 and 2023Q4.
Methodological notes
GDP
UK GDP calculations are based on ONS GDP estimates in chained volume measures, seasonally adjusted – as published in the 2024 Q1 Quarterly National Accounts dataset. UK average quarterly GDP growth rate is calculated as the geometric mean growth rate between 1997 Q2 – 2010 Q2. OECD average growth rates are calculated as weighted averages of the OECD aggregate quarterly real GDP between 2010 Q2-2024 Q1 (expenditure approach, 2015 USD PPP converted, calendar and seasonally adjusted).
Per person statistics use ONS resident population: 2024 mid-year estimates while household figures use data from the ONS families and households in the UK 2023.
Estimated tax receipts are derived by assuming the higher level of real GDP would feed through one for one into a higher level of nominal GDP in 2023/24 (assuming the level of the GDP deflator is unchanged) and applying the National Accounts tax receipts to GDP ratio of 36.1% (the level recorded in 2023/24) to the nominal GDP. This assumes the tax richness of the economy would be unchanged.
International forecasts
UK and G7 GDP and GDP per capita forecast data are drawn from the IMF April 2024 World Economic Outlook (WEO) dataset. GDP(PPP)-weighted averages are used for G7 growth rates, using IMF 2023 GDP estimates from the April 2024 WEO dataset. ONS GDP and GDP per capita data for Q2-2023 – Q1-2024 was used to estimate £ equivalents for growth rate differentials.
Investment
Business investment figures across the G7 are calculated by taking total Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) from country-level national accounts data and subtracting dwellings GFCF and government GCFC (excluding government investment in dwellings to avoid double counting). These adjustments help produce more accurate comparisons across countries as they align more closely with the ONS definition of business investment. This methodology has been developed in partnership with the Bank of England, and was included in the February speech “Worlds apart? UK inflation and monetary policy in an international context” by external MPC member Megan Greene.
Living standards
UK Real Household Disposable Income per capita is taken from the ONS UK Economic Accounts time series. Figures are provided in 2023 prices. Real values in the ONS dataset are in 2019 prices, which have been converted to 2023 prices using the real-income deflator (Nominal household disposable income / Real household disposable income).
G7 average RHDI per capita growth is calculated from OECD Household indicators dashboard (gross measure, chain linked volumes, calendar and seasonally adjusted). This growth rate is applied to UK data as reported in the OECD dashboard. G7 data is only available up to Q4 2023.
The following business attended the speech today:
- The CBI
- Federation of Small Business
- British Chambers of Commerce
- The IoD
- Make UK
- HSBC
- Lloyds Banking Group
- Morgan Stanley
- Prudential
- TheCityUK
- UK Finance
- Association of British Insurers (ABI)
- Mace
- RWE
- Barratt Developments
- Landsec
- SGN
- Amazon
- ABP Ports
- Citi Group
- Phoenix Group
- M&G
- Goldman Sachs International
- Bank of America
- JP Morgan
- City of London Corporation
- Deutsche Bank
- Chartered Management Institute
- techUK
- Association of the British Pharmaceutical Industry (ABPI)
- Scale-Up Institute
- Start Up Coalition
- Border to Coast
- Canadian Pension Plan
- Pension Insurance Corporation (PIC)
- Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan
- GlaxoSmithKlein (GSK)
- National Housing Federation
- Berkley Group
- Balfour Beatty
- EnergyUK
- Wates Group
- Jacobs
- Blackrock
- National Infrastructure Commission
- Bio Industries Association
- Schroders
The spotlight next week will shift somewhat to the Federal Reserve’s second-quarter earnings season and monetary policy. Market watchers will be treated to results from several major names, including Dow 30 components Goldman Sachs (GS), UnitedHealth (UNH), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and American Express (AXP), along with streaming giant Netflix (NFLX).
The Fed will still attract some attention as investors will be eager to hear from a packed lineup of central bank speakers just before the policy meeting lockout period.
In terms of the economic calendar, after fifteen days of labor market and inflation indicators, activity data will gain momentum in the form of the latest retail sales and industrial production reports.
Earnings Highlight: Monday, July 15 – Goldman Sachs (GS) and BlackRock (Black). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Tuesday, July 16 – UnitedHealth (UNH), Bank of America (BAC), Progressive (PGR), Morgan Stanley (IN), PNC Financial (PNC) and JB Hunt Transport (JBHT). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Wednesday, July 17 – Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), US Bancorp (USB), Morgan Children (KMI), United Airlines (UAL) and Ally Financial (ALLY). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Thursday, July 18 – Netflix (NFLX), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Black stone (BX), Domino’s pizza (ZDP) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Friday, July 19 – American Express (AXP), Halliburton (THANKS) and Travelers (VRT (return to recoverable value)) See the full earnings calendar.
IPO Observation: Hospital and healthcare clinic operator Ardent Health Partners (TARDT), insurance service provider Twfg (TWFG) and the biotechnology company Lirum Therapeutics (LRTX) are expected to price their IPOs and begin trading next week. The analyst quiet period ends at Rectitude (RECT) to free up analysts to publish ratings.
Police cars outside the residence of Thomas Matthew Crooks, the suspected shooter at a Trump rally on Saturday, investigate the area in Pennsylvania. Following the incident, one rally attendee was killed, two rally attendees are in critical condition and Donald Trump suffered a non-fatal gunshot wound. The shooter is dead after being shot dead by the United States Secret Service. (Photo by Kyle Mazza/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Investors will initially favor traditional safe-haven assets and may lean toward trades more closely tied to former President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the White House after he survived an assassination attempt, according to market watchers.
“There will undoubtedly be some protectionist or safe-haven flows into Asia early this morning,” said Nick Twidale, chief market analyst at ATFX Global Markets. “I suspect gold could test all-time highs, we’ll see the yen being bought and the dollar, and flows into Treasuries as well.”
Early market commentary suggested Trump’s shooting at a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday could also prompt traders to increase his likelihood of success in the November election. His support for looser fiscal policy and higher tariffs is generally seen as likely to benefit the dollar and weaken Treasuries.
An indicator of market sentiment heading into the weekend: Bitcoin surged above $60,000, likely reflecting Trump’s pro-crypto stance.
Other assets positively linked to the so-called Trump trade include stocks of energy companies, private prisons, credit card companies and health insurers.
Traders will also be closely watching market measures of expected volatility on Monday, such as those in the tariff-sensitive Chinese yuan and Mexican peso, which have begun to price in the U.S. vote.
Trump said he was shot in the right ear after a shooting at his rally. His campaign said in a statement that he was “fine” after the incident, which prompted him to rush off the stage.
“Currencies will be the first major market on Monday in Asia to react to the weekend’s shots. There’s potential for extra volatility, and getting a clear reading could be especially difficult because liquidity will be hurt by Japan’s national holiday,” said Garfield Reynolds, Asia team leader for Bloomberg Markets Live.
Strategists had already expected a volatile run-up to the election, particularly as Democrats are still agonizing over President Joe Biden’s candidacy after his poor performance in last month’s debate raised questions about his age. Investors were also grappling with the possibility that the election could end in a drawn-out dispute or political violence.
But there is little precedent for events like those in Pennsylvania. When President Ronald Reagan was shot four decades ago, the stock market plunged before closing early. The next day, March 31, 1981, the S&P 500 rose more than 1% and benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell 9 basis points to 13.13%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Bond investors should pay particular attention as the attack is likely to boost Trump’s election chances and ultimately lead to concerns about the fiscal outlook, according to Marko Papic, chief strategist at California-based BCA Research Inc.
“The bond market must at some point become aware of President Trump’s greater chances of winning the White House than any of his rivals,” Papic wrote. “And I continue to believe that as his chances increase, so too must the likelihood of a bond market revolt.”
Kyle Rodda, senior financial markets analyst at Capital.com, said he was seeing client flows into Bitcoin and gold following the shooting.
“This news marks a turning point in American policy norms,” he said. “For markets, it means safe-haven trades, but more tilted toward non-traditional safe-havens.”
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News / Business / Latest Business News Live Updates Today, July 11, 2024
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Jio Financial share price: Should you buy this Reliance group stock on Monday ahead of Q1 FY2024 results?
Q1 2024 Results: Jio Financial Share Price will be in focus on Monday as the Reliance Group company has a fixed board meeting on July 15, 2024 to consider and approve the company’s unaudited standalone and consolidated financial results. Trust Group company informed about the Q1 2024 Results date on Wednesday last week via an exchange filing. According to stock market experts, Jio Financial Services Limited is poised to deliver impressive Q1 results for FY25 on solid operating income. They have forecast a healthy QoQ PAT for the company in Q1 FY25.
Jio Financial Services News
Speaking on the Jio Financial Services Q1 2024 results, Manish Chowdhury, Head of Research, StoxBox, said, “We believe Jio Financial Services is poised to deliver impressive results in Q1FY25 aided by its operating income, which is likely to show robust growth driven by strong investment income, which in turn should lead to healthy PAT growth on a sequential basis. Jio Financial Services continues to make strategic moves such as launching digital products and expanding its ecosystem, with a clear focus on future growth. The company has announced plans to introduce products for lending against stocks and mutual funds, leveraging Jio’s large user base, which could be a significant growth driver in the coming quarters.”
“Furthermore, with the NBFC receiving RBI approval to become a primary investment company, Jio Financial Services is well-positioned to unlock value from its investments. Overall, we expect the company to report robust numbers in the upcoming quarter,” the StoxBox expert added.
Jio Financial Stock Target Price
Speaking about the technical outlook of Jio Financial share price, Ganesh Dongre, Senior Manager, Technical Research at Anand Rathi, said, “Jio Financial Services share price is poised to make a fresh high at the ₹260 apiece level. If the stock breaks above this mark, the Reliance Group stock could make a fresh high by touching the ₹290-₹295 zone. Hence, those with Jio Finance stock in their portfolio are advised to stick to the script by keeping a stop loss at ₹205. If the stock breaks above ₹260 decisively, then one can upgrade the stop loss at ₹240 for the near-term target of ₹295.”
On the advice to new buyers regarding Jio Financial stock, Ganesh Dongre said, “New buyers are advised to wait for the breakout. Once the stock breaks above ₹260, one can buy this Reliance Group stock at the short term target of ₹295, keeping a stop loss of ₹240 apiece.”
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or brokerage firms, and not of Mint. Investors are advised to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
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