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Biden’s job count has now surpassed 15.6 million. Voters haven’t cared so far.
Another more positive-than-expected jobs report on Friday hurt Joe Biden’s job market performance, with 15.6 million more jobs now than when the president took office.
But what remains to be seen is whether voters give him credit.
The record so far suggests the answer will be no. What voters have repeatedly told pollsters is that their perceptions of Biden’s economic record often begin and end with inflation.
Still, the president and his allies responded with force on Friday, with Biden saying in a statement “the great American comeback continues” and adding that unemployment is now at or below 4% for the longest period in 50 years.
Friday’s overall figures saw the economy again defy concerns of a slowdown and add 272,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in Maywhile the unemployment rate rose to 4% from 3.9% in April.
When Biden took office in 2021, after a year of job losses due to the pandemic, an estimated 142.9 million Americans were working. The latest Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Friday puts that number above 158.5 million.
“This is the coveted soft landing that many people said wouldn’t happen,” added Department of Labor Acting Secretary Julie Su in an interview with Yahoo Finance.
President Joe Biden raises his fist during an April speech in Virginia. (Andrew Harnik/Getty Images) (Andrew Harnik via Getty Images)
But perhaps in recognition of political reality, Biden, in his statement, quickly turned to prices.
“I will continue to fight to lower costs for families like the ones I grew up with in Scranton,” he said, focusing on both inflation and his work history.
There is five more work reports (like this five readings of the Consumer Price Index) between now and when voting ends this fall in the race between Biden and former President Donald Trump.
Left unsaid is another factor in Friday’s numbers that could be a complication for the White House. The strong numbers could ease pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates before the election.
Such a move by the central bank would help Americans by reducing borrowing costs. That, in turn, could lower the final price of a home purchase, a concern among key voters.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues should meet next week with no expectation of a change in interest rates at this meeting. Market Expectations of a Rate Cut at July Monitoring Meeting fell on Friday from 21% to 8.8%.
In a live Yahoo Finance interview on FridayCiti senior global economist Robert Sockin maintained that a July rate cut could still be on the table, saying there is still “enough softening” in the labor market to make the Fed concerned about recession risks, along with ” sufficient cooling in inflation numbers”. to justify cuts.”
The story continues
A persistent voter focus on inflation
The question for Biden and his campaign is whether any job-focused messaging can be disseminated. In turn, Republicans are unlikely to change their focus from insisting the 20% increase in prices since Biden took office.
House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith, a Missouri Republican, even ignored the job gains entirely in a statement Friday, choosing to focus on how, under Biden, “one paycheck doesn’t go as far as As soon”.
Poll data also showed a difficult climb for Biden, even in data collected by his allies.
A recent research from Blueprint 2024 – a Democratic-aligned group – found that 91% of respondents described inflation as a “serious problem.” Among those surveyed, 37% also described inflation as one of the “most important issues”.
Only 25% said the same about jobs and the economy.
And an Economist/YouGov survey released just this week provided further evidence of voters’ priorities: 25% of respondents listed “Inflation/Prices” as the most important issue. “Employment and economy” came in second place, but far behind, with 12%.
For voters worried about jobs, a number of Democratic figures highlighted Friday’s data and tried to tie it to Biden’s record.
Senator Martin Heinrich, Democratic chairman of the Joint Congressional Economic Committee, said in just one example that “the Democrats have brought a new era.”
But Pangea Policy founder Terry Haines recently told Yahoo Finance in a live interview that voters may have already decided. The “economic narrative here is very well established,” he said, adding that the weak perceptions “shadow [Biden’s] campaign.”
Ben Werschkul is the Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance.
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