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Bets on risky CLOs are paying off with 20% gains: Credit Weekly

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Bets on risky CLOs are paying off with 20% gains: Credit Weekly

(Bloomberg) — Returns on the riskiest part of collateralized loan obligations are rising, reaching about 20% annualized on both sides of the Atlantic, as loan performance improves, debt spreads narrow and payments increase.

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In some cases, a structural quirk that allowed managers to place new debt on old businesses also helped returns on the equity slice, the first piece of the structure that suffers losses. Money managers who create CLOs – bonds backed by a pool of leveraged loans – are taking advantage of falling financing costs and issuing more bonds with lower ratings rather than holding on to them.

Many are now selling what is known as a “class F deferred tranche,” adding it to an older CLO. The money they make from sales can reward shareholders with further distributions.

“Managers are able to transfer proceeds from the sale directly into equity, which can lead to bumper returns,” said James Baillie, structured credit partner at Paul Hastings in London.

Deferred tranches are another example of how issuers are taking advantage of a strong recovery in risky debt, as fears of a recession ease and prices recover after a prolonged, turbulent period. Since the start of the year, more than a dozen such agreements have been issued in Europe by CLO managers including Invesco and Capital Four.

Stock returns have also been helped by several CLOs that have exited their non-call period, meaning they can be refinanced, restarted or liquidated. The new prices and extended investment terms could also free up more money that can be sent to the equity tranche, Baillie added.

“In both approaches, you move from a less leveraged position to a more leveraged position and that gives you, in some cases, an equity dividend,” he said.

CLO stock returns have been unstable in recent years due to arbitrage fluctuation — or the difference between the yields a manager earns on the loans it buys and the financing costs of the bonds it issues. After falling in 2023, European arbitrage levels have stabilized this year at around 200 basis points, and have recently started to rise marginally, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.

“In 2022 and 2023, spreads were wider across both assets and liabilities, which made placing third-party CLO shares more challenging,” Ben Hunsaker, portfolio manager at Beach Point Capital Management, said of the securities market. USA. He said these businesses have likely had strong capital payments since then and should be able to refinance their liabilities when their non-call periods end.

The story continues

The problem is that these returns may not last. Investors in CLO stocks could see arbitrage fall again if global central banks start cutting interest rates this year. An increase in financial distress could also erode returns, although it has remained limited for now.

“The market was pricing in defaults of 3% to 4% last year and defaults of 4% to 6% this year, but we saw significantly fewer defaults in CLO portfolios, which benefited CLO equity,” said Dan Ko, Director senior and portfolio manager at Eagle Point Credit Management.

Click here for a podcast about Invesco’s purchase of REITs and bank bonds in the ‘Golden Age’ of credit

Week in review

  • Credit optimists point to a set of metrics that show that high-quality bonds have rarely been this cheap, increasing the appeal of corporate debt at a time when it offers few advantages over government bonds.

  • Investment banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. are proposing largely syndicated refinancings of some of the riskiest types of private credit, in the latest sign that Wall Street is trying to steal business from direct lenders.

  • For the first time since the financial crisis, investors in highly rated bonds backed by commercial real estate debt are being hit by losses.

  • Robo investors are increasingly taking control of credit markets. The shift is pitting investors with technical doctorates against traditional portfolio managers with management training.

  • United Parcel Service Inc. sold $2.6 billion in high-quality bonds as companies rushed to price new debt ahead of the Memorial Day holiday. Coca-Cola Consolidated Inc. raised $1.2 billion in notes to repurchase shares and data center owner Equinix Inc. sold back $750 million after canceling a planned offering in March following an attack by short sellers.

  • Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. sold $4.5 billion in convertible bonds, a record dollar-denominated sale by an Asian company.

  • Oak Hill Advisors is leading a debt package of approximately $1.4 billion to help finance Advent International’s proposed purchase of a stake in Prometheus Group.

  • Banks plan to hold a bond sale as early as next week to help pay for Roark Capital Group’s acquisition of the Subway restaurant chain.

  • Peloton Interactive Inc. sold $1 billion in loans, securing more favorable terms after the deal gained traction among investors.

  • Seafood restaurant chain Red Lobster has filed for bankruptcy, succumbing to onerous leases, high labor costs and a disastrous, unlimited shrimp promotion.

  • A lender to utility company Thames Water intends to offload around £500 million ($635.5 million) of the company’s loans.

  • Chinese companies have reduced several measures of external debt to decade lows or record levels.

  • China Vanke Co. has repackaged some of its issued private debt into asset-backed securities, a move that effectively allows the developer to postpone already deferred payments.

  • Cerberus Capital Management LP and Intrum AB are in talks to buy a portfolio of about 7 billion euros ($7.6 billion) of European non-performing loans.

In motion

  • has hired credit veteran Matthew Humphrey to its multi-asset investment team in London, after he spent 11 years at Barclays Plc, ultimately as head of synthetic risk transfer structuring.

  • Bobby Jain’s multi-strategy hedge fund has hired Syril Pathmanathan, until recently at DE Shaw & Co., to lead the synthetic risk transfer investment effort.

  • Fidelity International has suspended its direct lending activities in Europe and laid off members of its private markets team.

  • Barings has hired Bob Shettle once again as managing director. He will join the company’s North American private finance investment committee starting at the end of May.

  • Bayview Asset Management has recruited Craig Schorr as managing director in its insurance asset management division. Previously, he worked at AllianceBernstein as head of North American insurance.

–With assistance from Amedeo Goria.

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©2024 Bloomberg LP

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We are the editorial team of FinCrypto, where seriousness meets clarity in cryptocurrency analysis. With a robust team of finance and blockchain technology experts, we are dedicated to meticulously exploring complex crypto markets with detailed assessments and an unbiased approach. Our mission is to democratize access to knowledge of emerging financial technologies, ensuring they are understandable and accessible to all. In every article on FinCrypto, we strive to provide content that not only educates, but also empowers our readers, facilitating their integration into the financial digital age.

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Breakfast on Wall Street: The Week Ahead

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Wall Street Breakfast profile picture

The spotlight next week will shift somewhat to the Federal Reserve’s second-quarter earnings season and monetary policy. Market watchers will be treated to results from several major names, including Dow 30 components Goldman Sachs (GS), UnitedHealth (UNH), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and American Express (AXP), along with streaming giant Netflix (NFLX).

The Fed will still attract some attention as investors will be eager to hear from a packed lineup of central bank speakers just before the policy meeting lockout period.

In terms of the economic calendar, after fifteen days of labor market and inflation indicators, activity data will gain momentum in the form of the latest retail sales and industrial production reports.

Earnings Highlight: Monday, July 15 – Goldman Sachs (GS) and BlackRock (Black). See the full earnings calendar.

Earnings Highlight: Tuesday, July 16 – UnitedHealth (UNH), Bank of America (BAC), Progressive (PGR), Morgan Stanley (IN), PNC Financial (PNC) and JB Hunt Transport (JBHT). See the full earnings calendar.

Earnings Highlight: Wednesday, July 17 – Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), US Bancorp (USB), Morgan Children (KMI), United Airlines (UAL) and Ally Financial (ALLY). See the full earnings calendar.

Earnings Highlight: Thursday, July 18 – Netflix (NFLX), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Black stone (BX), Domino’s pizza (ZDP) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM). See the full earnings calendar.

Earnings Highlight: Friday, July 19 – American Express (AXP), Halliburton (THANKS) and Travelers (VRT (return to recoverable value)) See the full earnings calendar.

IPO Observation: Hospital and healthcare clinic operator Ardent Health Partners (TARDT), insurance service provider Twfg (TWFG) and the biotechnology company Lirum Therapeutics (LRTX) are expected to price their IPOs and begin trading next week. The analyst quiet period ends at Rectitude (RECT) to free up analysts to publish ratings.

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Trump shooting: Gold could hit record high, dollar and cryptocurrencies set to jump

FinCrypto Staff

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Police cars outside the residence of Thomas Matthew Crooks, the alleged shooter at a Trump rally on Saturday, investigate the area in Pennsylvania. In the aftermath of the incident, one rally attendee was killed, two rally attendees are in critical condition and Donald Trump suffered a non-fatal gunshot wound. The shooter is dead after being killed by the United States Secret Service. (Photo by Kyle Mazza/Anadolu via Getty Images)

Police cars outside the residence of Thomas Matthew Crooks, the suspected shooter at a Trump rally on Saturday, investigate the area in Pennsylvania. Following the incident, one rally attendee was killed, two rally attendees are in critical condition and Donald Trump suffered a non-fatal gunshot wound. The shooter is dead after being shot dead by the United States Secret Service. (Photo by Kyle Mazza/Anadolu via Getty Images)

Investors will initially favor traditional safe-haven assets and may lean toward trades more closely tied to former President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the White House after he survived an assassination attempt, according to market watchers.

“There will undoubtedly be some protectionist or safe-haven flows into Asia early this morning,” said Nick Twidale, chief market analyst at ATFX Global Markets. “I suspect gold could test all-time highs, we’ll see the yen being bought and the dollar, and flows into Treasuries as well.”

Early market commentary suggested Trump’s shooting at a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday could also prompt traders to increase his likelihood of success in the November election. His support for looser fiscal policy and higher tariffs is generally seen as likely to benefit the dollar and weaken Treasuries.

An indicator of market sentiment heading into the weekend: Bitcoin surged above $60,000, likely reflecting Trump’s pro-crypto stance.

Other assets positively linked to the so-called Trump trade include stocks of energy companies, private prisons, credit card companies and health insurers.

Traders will also be closely watching market measures of expected volatility on Monday, such as those in the tariff-sensitive Chinese yuan and Mexican peso, which have begun to price in the U.S. vote.

Trump said he was shot in the right ear after a shooting at his rally. His campaign said in a statement that he was “fine” after the incident, which prompted him to rush off the stage.

“Currencies will be the first major market on Monday in Asia to react to the weekend’s shots. There’s potential for extra volatility, and getting a clear reading could be especially difficult because liquidity will be hurt by Japan’s national holiday,” said Garfield Reynolds, Asia team leader for Bloomberg Markets Live.

Strategists had already expected a volatile run-up to the election, particularly as Democrats are still agonizing over President Joe Biden’s candidacy after his poor performance in last month’s debate raised questions about his age. Investors were also grappling with the possibility that the election could end in a drawn-out dispute or political violence.

But there is little precedent for events like those in Pennsylvania. When President Ronald Reagan was shot four decades ago, the stock market plunged before closing early. The next day, March 31, 1981, the S&P 500 rose more than 1% and benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell 9 basis points to 13.13%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Bond investors should pay particular attention as the attack is likely to boost Trump’s election chances and ultimately lead to concerns about the fiscal outlook, according to Marko Papic, chief strategist at California-based BCA Research Inc.

“The bond market must at some point become aware of President Trump’s greater chances of winning the White House than any of his rivals,” Papic wrote. “And I continue to believe that as his chances increase, so too must the likelihood of a bond market revolt.”

Kyle Rodda, senior financial markets analyst at Capital.com, said he was seeing client flows into Bitcoin and gold following the shooting.

“This news marks a turning point in American policy norms,” he said. “For markets, it means safe-haven trades, but more tilted toward non-traditional safe-havens.”

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Latest Business News Live Updates Today, July 11, 2024

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Latest Business News Live Updates Today, July 11, 2024

Follow us for stories on Bill Gates, Elon Musk, Mukesh Ambani, Gautam Adani as we bring you everything that’s happening in the business world. Follow the latest gold and silver prices here too. Stay in the know on all things business with us.

Latest news on July 11, 2024: Airtel says its new Xstream Fiber plans bundle over 350 live TV channels (Official Photo) (Reuters) Disclaimer: This is an AI-generated live blog and has not been edited by Hindustan Times staff.

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Jio Financial share price: Should you buy this Reliance group stock on Monday ahead of Q1 FY2024 results?

FinCrypto Staff

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Jio Financial share price: Should you buy this Reliance group stock on Monday ahead of Q1 FY2024 results?

Q1 2024 Results: Jio Financial Share Price will be in focus on Monday as the Reliance Group company has a fixed board meeting on July 15, 2024 to consider and approve the company’s unaudited standalone and consolidated financial results. Trust Group company informed about the Q1 2024 Results date on Wednesday last week via an exchange filing. According to stock market experts, Jio Financial Services Limited is poised to deliver impressive Q1 results for FY25 on solid operating income. They have forecast a healthy QoQ PAT for the company in Q1 FY25.

Jio Financial Services News

Speaking on the Jio Financial Services Q1 2024 results, Manish Chowdhury, Head of Research, StoxBox, said, “We believe Jio Financial Services is poised to deliver impressive results in Q1FY25 aided by its operating income, which is likely to show robust growth driven by strong investment income, which in turn should lead to healthy PAT growth on a sequential basis. Jio Financial Services continues to make strategic moves such as launching digital products and expanding its ecosystem, with a clear focus on future growth. The company has announced plans to introduce products for lending against stocks and mutual funds, leveraging Jio’s large user base, which could be a significant growth driver in the coming quarters.”

“Furthermore, with the NBFC receiving RBI approval to become a primary investment company, Jio Financial Services is well-positioned to unlock value from its investments. Overall, we expect the company to report robust numbers in the upcoming quarter,” the StoxBox expert added.

Jio Financial Stock Target Price

Speaking about the technical outlook of Jio Financial share price, Ganesh Dongre, Senior Manager, Technical Research at Anand Rathi, said, “Jio Financial Services share price is poised to make a fresh high at the ₹260 apiece level. If the stock breaks above this mark, the Reliance Group stock could make a fresh high by touching the ₹290-₹295 zone. Hence, those with Jio Finance stock in their portfolio are advised to stick to the script by keeping a stop loss at ₹205. If the stock breaks above ₹260 decisively, then one can upgrade the stop loss at ₹240 for the near-term target of ₹295.”

On the advice to new buyers regarding Jio Financial stock, Ganesh Dongre said, “New buyers are advised to wait for the breakout. Once the stock breaks above ₹260, one can buy this Reliance Group stock at the short term target of ₹295, keeping a stop loss of ₹240 apiece.”

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or brokerage firms, and not of Mint. Investors are advised to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions.

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