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A big day for the US economy is coming: what to watch
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Pedestrians in front of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York on Friday, June 7.
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Wall Street Is Facing a Rare Double Feature of Economic News on Wednesday, when an inflation report will be released in the morning and the Federal Reserve is expected to announce what it will do with its benchmark interest rate in the afternoon.
What to expect: Investors will look at the May Consumer Price Index report on Wednesday morning, just hours before the Fed announces its monetary policy update. The CPI report and the Fed’s monetary policy meeting have occurred on the same day only seven times since 2014, according to Bank of America. Despite the rare event, the stock market is unlikely to see big swings due to the economic wobble, some investors say.
“Things that could increase volatility would be if Chairman Powell said something unexpected; I think it’s a very low probability,” Dave Sekera, chief U.S. market strategist at Morningstar, wrote in a note on Monday. But if “inflation metrics are much higher than expected, this could lead to a small sell-off. How much the market sells will depend on how above consensus inflation is.”
The central bank is expected to keep rates unchanged this month. Some analysts say the upcoming CPI data will not change the Fed’s June decision unless it shows a huge slowdown or acceleration in inflation. But the metric will still help guide the Fed’s decisions during the second half of the year.
“The number of rate cuts the Fed will actually be able to make this year will depend heavily on the outlook for inflation; if it remains tighter, investors may want to temper their easing expectations for 2024,” Glenmede’s investment strategy team wrote in a Monday note.
Inflation is falling, but the path may be bumpy. Inflation showed signs of cooling in April after remaining worryingly hot during the first quarter of this year. There are also signs that Americans are spending less: a second estimate of gross domestic product, released in May, showed that consumer spending was weaker in the first three months of the year than initially reported. Big retailers are cutting prices to attract price-conscious consumers.
Investors are looking to the May CPI for clues as to whether the cooling in the April CPI report was a blip. Other metrics have already suggested that inflation is still taking some time to come down. The April Personal Consumption Expenditure Index, the central bank’s preferred inflation indicator, showed that the US economy made little progress keeping costs under control. US home prices are at record levels. Used and new car prices are still high, as are insurance, repair and maintenance costs.
The most recently employment report released Friday revealed that the US economy added a staggering 272,000 jobs in May. The combination of persistent inflation and strong job growth has led Wall Street to lower its expectations for rate cuts this year. Traders expect just one or two cuts in 2024, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
The Fed on Wednesday will release its latest projections for the direction it expects rates to take in the future and, more importantly, how many times it expects to ease rates in 2024. Although the central bank has maintained its forecast of three rate cuts so far This year, that could change – and potentially become the final set of projections for 2024.
“If most [Federal Open Market Committee] participants assume only one 25 [basis point] If a rate cut this year is appropriate, there appears little chance of obtaining enough data in time to lead back to a rate cut in July or September,” UBS economists wrote in a Friday note.
Americans are feeling more optimistic about their finances, the stock market and declining inflation
Presidential election polls may show that some Americans have mixed, if not downright bitter, opinions about the economy in general – but when it comes to how they view their own finances, things are looking pretty good, my report reports. colleague Alicia Wallace.
North American consumers are more optimistic about their current and future financial situation, the stock market and the slowdown in inflation, according to survey data released on Monday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
The New York Fed’s May Consumer Expectations Survey revealed an improvement in people’s perceptions of their current financial situation, as well as their outlook for the year ahead. The percentage of respondents who said their financial situation was better than in May 2023 was at its second highest level in more than two years, while the positive percentage for the following year reached its highest level in almost three years.
Monday’s survey also showed improved optimism outside the domestic sphere: namely, consumers believe that the good times in the markets could continue. Household expectations regarding higher US stock prices improved to a three-year high.
In terms of the job market, the latest survey was a bit mixed.
Rural US hospitals continue to be attacked by cybercriminals. Microsoft and Google are working to fix this
Microsoft and Google will offer free or discounted cybersecurity services to rural hospitals in the United States to make them less vulnerable to cyberattacks that have disrupted patient care and threatened lives, the White House and these tech companies said on Monday.
Microsoft said in a statement to CNN that it would provide free security updates to eligible rural hospitals, as well as security assessments and training for hospital employees. Google will provide free cybersecurity consulting to rural hospitals and begin a pilot program to match the company’s cybersecurity services with the needs of rural hospitals.
The country’s roughly 1,800 rural community hospitals are among the most vulnerable to dangerous ransomware attacks because they often lack IT security resources and trained cybersecurity personnel, my colleagues Sean Lyngaas and Michelle Watson report. And they may be the only hospitals within a radius of dozens of kilometers, which means that a ransomware attack that prevents a hospital from accepting ambulances could put patients’ lives at risk.
The new announcement is the result of private discussions between technology companies and officials on the White House National Security Council, which is increasingly concerned about cyber threats to hospitals. It’s an effort to use the broad reach of software from Microsoft and Google, which is used in hospitals across the United States, to help fill a gap in healthcare defense.
The spotlight next week will shift somewhat to the Federal Reserve’s second-quarter earnings season and monetary policy. Market watchers will be treated to results from several major names, including Dow 30 components Goldman Sachs (GS), UnitedHealth (UNH), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and American Express (AXP), along with streaming giant Netflix (NFLX).
The Fed will still attract some attention as investors will be eager to hear from a packed lineup of central bank speakers just before the policy meeting lockout period.
In terms of the economic calendar, after fifteen days of labor market and inflation indicators, activity data will gain momentum in the form of the latest retail sales and industrial production reports.
Earnings Highlight: Monday, July 15 – Goldman Sachs (GS) and BlackRock (Black). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Tuesday, July 16 – UnitedHealth (UNH), Bank of America (BAC), Progressive (PGR), Morgan Stanley (IN), PNC Financial (PNC) and JB Hunt Transport (JBHT). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Wednesday, July 17 – Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), US Bancorp (USB), Morgan Children (KMI), United Airlines (UAL) and Ally Financial (ALLY). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Thursday, July 18 – Netflix (NFLX), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Black stone (BX), Domino’s pizza (ZDP) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Friday, July 19 – American Express (AXP), Halliburton (THANKS) and Travelers (VRT (return to recoverable value)) See the full earnings calendar.
IPO Observation: Hospital and healthcare clinic operator Ardent Health Partners (TARDT), insurance service provider Twfg (TWFG) and the biotechnology company Lirum Therapeutics (LRTX) are expected to price their IPOs and begin trading next week. The analyst quiet period ends at Rectitude (RECT) to free up analysts to publish ratings.
Police cars outside the residence of Thomas Matthew Crooks, the suspected shooter at a Trump rally on Saturday, investigate the area in Pennsylvania. Following the incident, one rally attendee was killed, two rally attendees are in critical condition and Donald Trump suffered a non-fatal gunshot wound. The shooter is dead after being shot dead by the United States Secret Service. (Photo by Kyle Mazza/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Investors will initially favor traditional safe-haven assets and may lean toward trades more closely tied to former President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the White House after he survived an assassination attempt, according to market watchers.
“There will undoubtedly be some protectionist or safe-haven flows into Asia early this morning,” said Nick Twidale, chief market analyst at ATFX Global Markets. “I suspect gold could test all-time highs, we’ll see the yen being bought and the dollar, and flows into Treasuries as well.”
Early market commentary suggested Trump’s shooting at a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday could also prompt traders to increase his likelihood of success in the November election. His support for looser fiscal policy and higher tariffs is generally seen as likely to benefit the dollar and weaken Treasuries.
An indicator of market sentiment heading into the weekend: Bitcoin surged above $60,000, likely reflecting Trump’s pro-crypto stance.
Other assets positively linked to the so-called Trump trade include stocks of energy companies, private prisons, credit card companies and health insurers.
Traders will also be closely watching market measures of expected volatility on Monday, such as those in the tariff-sensitive Chinese yuan and Mexican peso, which have begun to price in the U.S. vote.
Trump said he was shot in the right ear after a shooting at his rally. His campaign said in a statement that he was “fine” after the incident, which prompted him to rush off the stage.
“Currencies will be the first major market on Monday in Asia to react to the weekend’s shots. There’s potential for extra volatility, and getting a clear reading could be especially difficult because liquidity will be hurt by Japan’s national holiday,” said Garfield Reynolds, Asia team leader for Bloomberg Markets Live.
Strategists had already expected a volatile run-up to the election, particularly as Democrats are still agonizing over President Joe Biden’s candidacy after his poor performance in last month’s debate raised questions about his age. Investors were also grappling with the possibility that the election could end in a drawn-out dispute or political violence.
But there is little precedent for events like those in Pennsylvania. When President Ronald Reagan was shot four decades ago, the stock market plunged before closing early. The next day, March 31, 1981, the S&P 500 rose more than 1% and benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell 9 basis points to 13.13%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Bond investors should pay particular attention as the attack is likely to boost Trump’s election chances and ultimately lead to concerns about the fiscal outlook, according to Marko Papic, chief strategist at California-based BCA Research Inc.
“The bond market must at some point become aware of President Trump’s greater chances of winning the White House than any of his rivals,” Papic wrote. “And I continue to believe that as his chances increase, so too must the likelihood of a bond market revolt.”
Kyle Rodda, senior financial markets analyst at Capital.com, said he was seeing client flows into Bitcoin and gold following the shooting.
“This news marks a turning point in American policy norms,” he said. “For markets, it means safe-haven trades, but more tilted toward non-traditional safe-havens.”
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Jio Financial share price: Should you buy this Reliance group stock on Monday ahead of Q1 FY2024 results?
Q1 2024 Results: Jio Financial Share Price will be in focus on Monday as the Reliance Group company has a fixed board meeting on July 15, 2024 to consider and approve the company’s unaudited standalone and consolidated financial results. Trust Group company informed about the Q1 2024 Results date on Wednesday last week via an exchange filing. According to stock market experts, Jio Financial Services Limited is poised to deliver impressive Q1 results for FY25 on solid operating income. They have forecast a healthy QoQ PAT for the company in Q1 FY25.
Jio Financial Services News
Speaking on the Jio Financial Services Q1 2024 results, Manish Chowdhury, Head of Research, StoxBox, said, “We believe Jio Financial Services is poised to deliver impressive results in Q1FY25 aided by its operating income, which is likely to show robust growth driven by strong investment income, which in turn should lead to healthy PAT growth on a sequential basis. Jio Financial Services continues to make strategic moves such as launching digital products and expanding its ecosystem, with a clear focus on future growth. The company has announced plans to introduce products for lending against stocks and mutual funds, leveraging Jio’s large user base, which could be a significant growth driver in the coming quarters.”
“Furthermore, with the NBFC receiving RBI approval to become a primary investment company, Jio Financial Services is well-positioned to unlock value from its investments. Overall, we expect the company to report robust numbers in the upcoming quarter,” the StoxBox expert added.
Jio Financial Stock Target Price
Speaking about the technical outlook of Jio Financial share price, Ganesh Dongre, Senior Manager, Technical Research at Anand Rathi, said, “Jio Financial Services share price is poised to make a fresh high at the ₹260 apiece level. If the stock breaks above this mark, the Reliance Group stock could make a fresh high by touching the ₹290-₹295 zone. Hence, those with Jio Finance stock in their portfolio are advised to stick to the script by keeping a stop loss at ₹205. If the stock breaks above ₹260 decisively, then one can upgrade the stop loss at ₹240 for the near-term target of ₹295.”
On the advice to new buyers regarding Jio Financial stock, Ganesh Dongre said, “New buyers are advised to wait for the breakout. Once the stock breaks above â‚ą260, one can buy this Reliance Group stock at the short term target of â‚ą295, keeping a stop loss of â‚ą240 apiece.”
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or brokerage firms, and not of Mint. Investors are advised to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
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