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Good, not great, news about inflation
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Good morning. Stocks hit an all-time high high yesterday, passing through the March peaks. As a financial journalist, this makes me nervous. As an investor, this makes me happy. Tell me which one is right: robert.armstrong@ft.com.
CPI inflation: good enough for now
Every month Unhedged publishes a chart more or less similar to the one below. For the first time in 2024, we can do this without cringing:
Line drops! Good! After three months in which the monthly variation in core inflation was 0.4 percent, or an annualized rate well above 4 percent, the April figure was 0.3 percent, or 3.6 percent annualized. A significant improvement.
Why, then, didn’t the market seem to care more? Yes, two-year Treasury yields fell a respectable, if not precipitous, 9 basis points; shares rose more than one percent. But what hasn’t changed much are market expectations regarding a reduction in interest rates. Yesterday, the futures market expected cuts of 43 basis points by December. Today? 52bp. Oh yes.
What the market demonstrates is the difference between relief and surprise. There were good reasons to expect April’s numbers to be much better than those of the previous three months, and they were. But there were also good reasons to hope in February and March, and those hopes were dashed. Therefore, yields and stocks are showing relief. But the basic picture has changed relatively little. There were no major positive surprises that could change market forecasts for interest rates. Don Rissmiller of Strategas sums it up with characteristic impartiality: “The Fed has remained on hold and today’s inflation reinforces that decision.”
What the Fed wants most is for service prices to stop rising. But most of April’s improvements came in assets. In particular, the fall in car prices, both new and used, has accelerated, a trend that is expected to continue.
But there was also good news on the services side. Airfares continue to fall. Car insurance is still rising quickly, but not as quickly. And what really matters is the biggest and most watched service category of all: shelter. Rent fell significantly and equivalent rent to owners fell:
The movements may not seem impressive. And in fact, compared to measures of private renting that focus on new rentals, the CPI numbers still look terribly stark. But Omair Sharif of Inflation Insights sees reason for hope in the details. When seasonal adjustments to the index are removed, the trend appears more encouraging. And he points out that the Cleveland Fed’s New Tenant Rent (NTRR in the chart below) and All Tenant Rent (ATRR) indexes tend to lead the CPI rent in four and one quarters, respectively, and are pointing to new drops in rents in the months to come.
Reason for optimism, then. But it’s important to keep it simple. See the first graph above. April was an improvement, but it’s only one month and we’re still above the Fed’s 2% target. The multi-year averages are still well above the target. There is a way to go and the path will not be easy.
Gold and central banks
Yesterday I he wrote about the recovery in gold, which I still find difficult to justify in fundamental terms. Many readers wrote to point out that I had underestimated the change in central bank gold buying as a factor. They’re right. Here, from HSBC’s James Steel, is a long-term chart of global central bank gold purchases:
Banks have been buying around 400 tonnes a year since 2010, but in 2021 and 2022 they bought twice as much, and last year they were still at around 750 tonnes. What has changed? Joseph Wang, the central banking expert formerly known as Fed Guy, thoughts. Although the dollar remains the dominant currency in both global trade and global monetary reserves, “China bloc” countries have increased their gold holdings from very low levels to about 7 percent of total reserves. He borrows this graph from the IMF:
China’s own gold allocation is still very low compared to other countries, and its “buying spree” suggests it may be intent on changing that. Although in the years following 2008 China diversified its reserves, converting them into loans to countries it hoped to attract into its sphere of influence, it may be shifting towards gold, a process that could continue for many years. years.
Steel explains gold’s appeal to central banks as “a little more subtle than a simple de-dollarization story.” The dollar remains the dominant reserve reserve, but a shift of central bank portfolios to gold reflects a desire to diversify in some way. Monetary alternatives to the dollar (euro, pound, yen) are not particularly attractive; gold allows banks to diversify without buying it. And gold reserves can be mobilized to pay debts, resolve current account imbalances or avoid a currency crisis.
I am skeptical of stories about the end of the global order as we know it as justifications for any investment strategy. These things are very difficult to predict. But if central banks are constantly changing their allocations to gold, that’s more than just a story. There is just one problem. The violent jump in the price of gold this year, which surpassed the symbolically important $2,000 level, came well after the big increase in central bank purchases in 2022. Those who buy gold now may be following the central banks. But they also participate in a speculative frenzy.
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News
Breakfast on Wall Street: The Week Ahead
The spotlight next week will shift somewhat to the Federal Reserve’s second-quarter earnings season and monetary policy. Market watchers will be treated to results from several major names, including Dow 30 components Goldman Sachs (GS), UnitedHealth (UNH), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and American Express (AXP), along with streaming giant Netflix (NFLX).
The Fed will still attract some attention as investors will be eager to hear from a packed lineup of central bank speakers just before the policy meeting lockout period.
In terms of the economic calendar, after fifteen days of labor market and inflation indicators, activity data will gain momentum in the form of the latest retail sales and industrial production reports.
Earnings Highlight: Monday, July 15 – Goldman Sachs (GS) and BlackRock (Black). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Tuesday, July 16 – UnitedHealth (UNH), Bank of America (BAC), Progressive (PGR), Morgan Stanley (IN), PNC Financial (PNC) and JB Hunt Transport (JBHT). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Wednesday, July 17 – Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), US Bancorp (USB), Morgan Children (KMI), United Airlines (UAL) and Ally Financial (ALLY). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Thursday, July 18 – Netflix (NFLX), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Black stone (BX), Domino’s pizza (ZDP) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Friday, July 19 – American Express (AXP), Halliburton (THANKS) and Travelers (VRT (return to recoverable value)) See the full earnings calendar.
IPO Observation: Hospital and healthcare clinic operator Ardent Health Partners (TARDT), insurance service provider Twfg (TWFG) and the biotechnology company Lirum Therapeutics (LRTX) are expected to price their IPOs and begin trading next week. The analyst quiet period ends at Rectitude (RECT) to free up analysts to publish ratings.
News
Trump shooting: Gold could hit record high, dollar and cryptocurrencies set to jump
Police cars outside the residence of Thomas Matthew Crooks, the suspected shooter at a Trump rally on Saturday, investigate the area in Pennsylvania. Following the incident, one rally attendee was killed, two rally attendees are in critical condition and Donald Trump suffered a non-fatal gunshot wound. The shooter is dead after being shot dead by the United States Secret Service. (Photo by Kyle Mazza/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Investors will initially favor traditional safe-haven assets and may lean toward trades more closely tied to former President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the White House after he survived an assassination attempt, according to market watchers.
“There will undoubtedly be some protectionist or safe-haven flows into Asia early this morning,” said Nick Twidale, chief market analyst at ATFX Global Markets. “I suspect gold could test all-time highs, we’ll see the yen being bought and the dollar, and flows into Treasuries as well.”
Early market commentary suggested Trump’s shooting at a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday could also prompt traders to increase his likelihood of success in the November election. His support for looser fiscal policy and higher tariffs is generally seen as likely to benefit the dollar and weaken Treasuries.
An indicator of market sentiment heading into the weekend: Bitcoin surged above $60,000, likely reflecting Trump’s pro-crypto stance.
Other assets positively linked to the so-called Trump trade include stocks of energy companies, private prisons, credit card companies and health insurers.
Traders will also be closely watching market measures of expected volatility on Monday, such as those in the tariff-sensitive Chinese yuan and Mexican peso, which have begun to price in the U.S. vote.
Trump said he was shot in the right ear after a shooting at his rally. His campaign said in a statement that he was “fine” after the incident, which prompted him to rush off the stage.
“Currencies will be the first major market on Monday in Asia to react to the weekend’s shots. There’s potential for extra volatility, and getting a clear reading could be especially difficult because liquidity will be hurt by Japan’s national holiday,” said Garfield Reynolds, Asia team leader for Bloomberg Markets Live.
Strategists had already expected a volatile run-up to the election, particularly as Democrats are still agonizing over President Joe Biden’s candidacy after his poor performance in last month’s debate raised questions about his age. Investors were also grappling with the possibility that the election could end in a drawn-out dispute or political violence.
But there is little precedent for events like those in Pennsylvania. When President Ronald Reagan was shot four decades ago, the stock market plunged before closing early. The next day, March 31, 1981, the S&P 500 rose more than 1% and benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell 9 basis points to 13.13%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Bond investors should pay particular attention as the attack is likely to boost Trump’s election chances and ultimately lead to concerns about the fiscal outlook, according to Marko Papic, chief strategist at California-based BCA Research Inc.
“The bond market must at some point become aware of President Trump’s greater chances of winning the White House than any of his rivals,” Papic wrote. “And I continue to believe that as his chances increase, so too must the likelihood of a bond market revolt.”
Kyle Rodda, senior financial markets analyst at Capital.com, said he was seeing client flows into Bitcoin and gold following the shooting.
“This news marks a turning point in American policy norms,” he said. “For markets, it means safe-haven trades, but more tilted toward non-traditional safe-havens.”
News
Latest Business News Live Updates Today, July 11, 2024
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 08:44 PM
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 07:45 AM
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News
Jio Financial share price: Should you buy this Reliance group stock on Monday ahead of Q1 FY2024 results?
Q1 2024 Results: Jio Financial Share Price will be in focus on Monday as the Reliance Group company has a fixed board meeting on July 15, 2024 to consider and approve the company’s unaudited standalone and consolidated financial results. Trust Group company informed about the Q1 2024 Results date on Wednesday last week via an exchange filing. According to stock market experts, Jio Financial Services Limited is poised to deliver impressive Q1 results for FY25 on solid operating income. They have forecast a healthy QoQ PAT for the company in Q1 FY25.
Jio Financial Services News
Speaking on the Jio Financial Services Q1 2024 results, Manish Chowdhury, Head of Research, StoxBox, said, “We believe Jio Financial Services is poised to deliver impressive results in Q1FY25 aided by its operating income, which is likely to show robust growth driven by strong investment income, which in turn should lead to healthy PAT growth on a sequential basis. Jio Financial Services continues to make strategic moves such as launching digital products and expanding its ecosystem, with a clear focus on future growth. The company has announced plans to introduce products for lending against stocks and mutual funds, leveraging Jio’s large user base, which could be a significant growth driver in the coming quarters.”
“Furthermore, with the NBFC receiving RBI approval to become a primary investment company, Jio Financial Services is well-positioned to unlock value from its investments. Overall, we expect the company to report robust numbers in the upcoming quarter,” the StoxBox expert added.
Jio Financial Stock Target Price
Speaking about the technical outlook of Jio Financial share price, Ganesh Dongre, Senior Manager, Technical Research at Anand Rathi, said, “Jio Financial Services share price is poised to make a fresh high at the ₹260 apiece level. If the stock breaks above this mark, the Reliance Group stock could make a fresh high by touching the ₹290-₹295 zone. Hence, those with Jio Finance stock in their portfolio are advised to stick to the script by keeping a stop loss at ₹205. If the stock breaks above ₹260 decisively, then one can upgrade the stop loss at ₹240 for the near-term target of ₹295.”
On the advice to new buyers regarding Jio Financial stock, Ganesh Dongre said, “New buyers are advised to wait for the breakout. Once the stock breaks above â‚ą260, one can buy this Reliance Group stock at the short term target of â‚ą295, keeping a stop loss of â‚ą240 apiece.”
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or brokerage firms, and not of Mint. Investors are advised to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
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