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O que saber esta semana
Uma leitura sobre a inflação e o início dos relatórios de lucros do segundo trimestre darão as boas-vindas aos investidores após uma semana encurtada pelo feriado, na qual as ações fecharam perto de máximas recordes.
Com crescimento do emprego a abrandaros investidores estarão observando atentamente a divulgação do Índice de Preços ao Consumidor (IPC) de junho na quinta-feira, à medida que se desenvolve o caso de que o Federal Reserve pode estar pronto para cortar as taxas de juros em setembro. O depoimento semestral do presidente do Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, perante o Comitê Bancário do Senado na terça-feira e o Comitê de Serviços Financeiros da Câmara na quarta-feira também será um foco importante para os investidores.
No lado corporativo, na manhã de sexta-feira, algumas das maiores instituições financeiras dos Estados Unidos, incluindo o JPMorgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC) e Citi (C), inicia a temporada de lucros do segundo trimestre. Resultados da PepsiCo (PEP) e Delta Air Lines (DAL) também estará em foco no início da semana.
Na semana passada, o S&P 500 (^GSPC) subiu quase 2%, enquanto o Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) subiu mais de 3%. Ambos terminaram a semana em altas recordes. O Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI), que ficou notavelmente para trás durante todo o ano, ganhou modestos 0,5%.
Cresce o argumento para um corte de juros em setembro
Na sexta, o relatório de empregos de junho mostrou a economia dos EUA criou mais empregos do que o esperado no mês passado. Mas os economistas encontraram vários sinais de um mercado de trabalho em desaceleração nos detalhes do relatório.
A taxa de desemprego subiu para 4,1%, seu nível mais alto desde novembro de 2021. Enquanto isso, os ganhos de empregos em abril e maio foram revisados para baixo em 111.000, mostrando que os ganhos robustos do mercado de trabalho nos últimos meses não foram tão sólidos quanto se pensava inicialmente.
Vários economistas acreditam que essa impressão levará o Federal Reserve a cortar as taxas de juros em setembro.
“O relatório de empregos de junho mostrou mais sinais de esfriamento no mercado de trabalho, com o crescimento do emprego, incluindo revisões, mais fraco do que o esperado, a taxa de desemprego aumentando e o crescimento dos lucros desacelerando”, escreveu a economista-chefe dos EUA da Oxford Economics, Nancy Vanden Houten, em nota aos clientes.
“Autoridades do Federal Reserve estão cada vez mais focadas nos riscos de queda no mercado de trabalho e os dados de junho reforçam nossa previsão de que o Fed cortará as taxas em setembro e em todas as outras reuniões subsequentes.”
O chefe de economia da Renaissance Macro, Neil Dutta, escreveu em uma nota aos clientes na sexta-feira que o relatório deve “firmar as expectativas de um corte nas taxas em setembro”.
“As condições econômicas estão esfriando e isso torna as compensações diferentes para o Fed”, acrescentou Dutta. “Powell deve usar julho para definir um corte em setembro.”
A história continua
Na sexta-feira, os investidores estavam precificando uma taxa de corte de aproximadamente 75% no Fed até sua reunião de setembro, acima da chance de 64% observada na semana anterior. de acordo com a ferramenta FedWatch do CME.
Com Powell prestes a dar seu depoimento semestral no Capitólio esta semana, os investidores estarão atentos a quaisquer indícios de movimentos políticos antes da reunião de 30 e 31 de julho.
Consulte Mais informação: O que a decisão da taxa do Fed significa para contas bancárias, CDs, empréstimos e cartões de crédito
Verificação de preço
Embora a desaceleração do mercado de trabalho tenha reforçado os argumentos a favor dos cortes nas taxas do Fed, a inflação continua sendo um fator-chave.
Em maio, as leituras da inflação mostraram que os preços aumentaram no ritmo mais lento de 2024. Powell observou na semana passada, essas leituras “sugerem que estamos retornando a um caminho desinflacionário”.
O primeiro teste para saber se esse caminho continuará será divulgado na manhã de quinta-feira com o relatório do IPC de junho.
Economistas de Wall Street esperam que a inflação geral tenha subido apenas 3,1% ao ano em junho, uma desaceleração em relação ao aumento de 3,3% observado em maio. Os dados de maio foram a leitura de inflação anual mais lenta desde julho de 2022. Os preços devem subir 0,1% na comparação mensal, um ligeiro aumento em relação à leitura estável observada em maio.
Em uma base “core”, que exclui os preços de alimentos e energia, o IPC está previsto para subir 3,4% em relação ao ano passado em junho, inalterado em relação a maio. Os aumentos mensais de preços core devem registrar 0,2%.
“Esperamos que o relatório do IPC de junho seja mais um gerador de confiança após o inegavelmente bom relatório de maio”, escreveu o economista americano do Bank of America, Stephen Juneau, em uma nota de pesquisa antecipando o lançamento.
Consulte Mais informação: A febre da inflação está acabando? Os aumentos de preços nas despesas cotidianas finalmente diminuem.
Os grandes bancos preparam o cenário
A temporada de resultados está chegando novamente, e as finanças (XLF) estará em foco particular nas próximas semanas; 40% das empresas do S&P 500 que devem divulgar seus resultados nesse período serão do setor, de acordo com a FactSet.
Não se espera que o setor seja líder em crescimento de lucros neste trimestre, com analistas prevendo um crescimento de lucros de 4,3% ano a ano no Q2. Isso coloca o Financials em sétimo lugar entre os onze setores no S&P 500 para crescimento de lucros.
Como David Hollerith do Yahoo Finance relatado recentementeos bancos regionais continuam sendo uma preocupação fundamental para a indústria. Espera-se que os bancos regionais relatem um declínio de 26% no crescimento dos lucros em relação ao ano anterior.
O logotipo do JPMorgan Chase é visto em sua sede em 26 de maio de 2023, na cidade de Nova York. (Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images) (Michael M. Santiago via Getty Images)
Uma ‘barra alta’ para os lucros do segundo trimestre
Depois saindo de uma recessão de lucros em 2023as empresas estão finalmente enfrentando um novo desafio nesta temporada de relatórios: um alto padrão a ser superado.
As previsões de consenso são de que os lucros do S&P 500 cresçam 8,8% em relação ao ano anterior no segundo trimestre, de acordo com a FactSet. Isso marcaria o maior crescimento de lucros ano a ano para o índice desde o primeiro trimestre de 2022.
“Esperamos que a magnitude dos superávits por ação diminua, já que as previsões de consenso estabelecem um padrão mais alto do que nos trimestres anteriores”, escreveu o estrategista-chefe de ações dos EUA do Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, em uma nota ao cliente prevendo a temporada de lucros.
Com o mercado sendo negociado perto de níveis recordes antes deste período de relatório, Kostin e outros estrategistas estão cautelosos sobre quanta alta os investidores podem esperar se os resultados superarem as expectativas de Wall Street.
Kostin observou que, no último trimestre, as empresas que superaram as expectativas viram suas ações superarem o S&P 500 em 3 pontos-base no dia seguinte de negociação, bem abaixo da média histórica de 100 pontos-base.
Considerando que o sentimento do investidor ainda está elevado ao entrar nesta rodada de lucros, Kostin argumentou que “a recompensa por resultados positivos deve ser menor do que a média neste trimestre, embora não tão extrema quanto durante a temporada do primeiro trimestre”.
O estrategista de ações do Citi US, Scott Chronert, adotou um tom semelhante, alertando que, dadas as “elevadas expectativas de crescimento implícito”, a perspectiva de grandes aumentos nas ações neste trimestre é limitada.
“Os mercados provavelmente precisam ver aumentos juntamente com batidas sólidas impulsionadas pela execução para sustentar os ganhos recentes ou impulsionar mais alto a partir daqui”, escreveu Chronert em uma nota de pesquisa semanal na sexta-feira. “A preocupação é que, embora as tendências fundamentais sejam positivas e as estimativas de consenso sejam atingíveis, as avaliações sugerem que o buy-side exigirá mais.”
Em termos gerais, isso fez com que Wall Street alterasse as expectativas sobre o quanto os relatórios de lucros do segundo trimestre poderiam elevar o mercado de ações.
Uma pesquisa do estrategista-chefe de ações do Deutsche Bank, Binky Chadha, mostrou que o S&P 500 sobe 80% do tempo durante a temporada de resultados, com um retorno médio de 2%.
“Por outro lado”, observou Chadha, “a corrida do mercado rumo à temporada de lucros e o posicionamento sobreponderado das ações indicam uma recuperação moderada”.
Calendário semanal
Segunda-feira
Dados econômicos: Expectativas de inflação de 1 ano do Fed de Nova York, junho (3,17% anterior)
Ganhos: Nenhum comunicado de lucros notável.
Terça-feira
Dados econômicos: Otimismo de pequenas empresas da NFIB, junho (89,9 esperado, 90,5 anterior); O presidente do Fed, Powell, testemunha perante o Comitê Bancário do Senado.
Ganhos: Helena de Tróia (HELE)
Quarta-feira
Dados econômicos: Pedidos de hipotecas de MBA, 5 de julho (-2,6% antes), Estoques no atacado mês a mês, final de maio (0,6% antes); O presidente do Fed, Powell, testemunha perante o Comitê de Serviços Financeiros da Câmara
Ganhos: Manchester United (MANU), WD-40 (WDFC), Preço esperto (PSMT)
Quinta-feira
Dados econômicos: Índice de Preços ao Consumidor, mês a mês, junho (+0,1% esperado, +0% anteriormente); IPC excluindo alimentos e energia, mês a mês, junho (+0,2% esperado, +0,2% anteriormente); Índice de Preços ao Consumidor, ano a ano, junho (+3,1% esperado, +3,3% anteriormente); IPC excluindo alimentos e energia, ano a ano, junho (+3,4% esperado, +3,4% anteriormente); Rendimentos Horários Médios Reais, ano a ano, junho (+0,7% anteriormente); Rendimentos Semanais Médios Reais, ano a ano, junho (+0,5% anteriormente); Pedidos iniciais de auxílio-desemprego, semana encerrada em 6 de julho (238.000 anteriormente);
Ganhos: Marcas Conagra (CAG), Linhas Aéreas Delta (DAL), PepsiCo (PEP), Progressivo (PGR)
Sexta-feira
Dados econômicos: Índice de Preços ao Produtor, mês a mês, junho (+0,1% esperado, -0,2% anteriormente); PPI, ano a ano, junho (+2,2% anteriormente); PPI básico, mês a mês, junho (+0,1% esperado, 0% anteriormente); PPI básico, ano a ano, junho (+2,3% anteriormente); Sentimento do consumidor da Universidade de Michigan, preliminar de julho (67 esperado, 68,2 anteriormente)
Ganhos: BNY Mellon (BK), JP Morgan (JPM), Citigroup (C), Wells Fargo (WFC)
Josh Schafer é um repórter do Yahoo Finance. Siga-o no X @_joshschafer.
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Breakfast on Wall Street: The Week Ahead
The spotlight next week will shift somewhat to the Federal Reserve’s second-quarter earnings season and monetary policy. Market watchers will be treated to results from several major names, including Dow 30 components Goldman Sachs (GS), UnitedHealth (UNH), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and American Express (AXP), along with streaming giant Netflix (NFLX).
The Fed will still attract some attention as investors will be eager to hear from a packed lineup of central bank speakers just before the policy meeting lockout period.
In terms of the economic calendar, after fifteen days of labor market and inflation indicators, activity data will gain momentum in the form of the latest retail sales and industrial production reports.
Earnings Highlight: Monday, July 15 – Goldman Sachs (GS) and BlackRock (Black). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Tuesday, July 16 – UnitedHealth (UNH), Bank of America (BAC), Progressive (PGR), Morgan Stanley (IN), PNC Financial (PNC) and JB Hunt Transport (JBHT). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Wednesday, July 17 – Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), US Bancorp (USB), Morgan Children (KMI), United Airlines (UAL) and Ally Financial (ALLY). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Thursday, July 18 – Netflix (NFLX), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Black stone (BX), Domino’s pizza (ZDP) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Friday, July 19 – American Express (AXP), Halliburton (THANKS) and Travelers (VRT (return to recoverable value)) See the full earnings calendar.
IPO Observation: Hospital and healthcare clinic operator Ardent Health Partners (TARDT), insurance service provider Twfg (TWFG) and the biotechnology company Lirum Therapeutics (LRTX) are expected to price their IPOs and begin trading next week. The analyst quiet period ends at Rectitude (RECT) to free up analysts to publish ratings.
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Trump shooting: Gold could hit record high, dollar and cryptocurrencies set to jump
Police cars outside the residence of Thomas Matthew Crooks, the suspected shooter at a Trump rally on Saturday, investigate the area in Pennsylvania. Following the incident, one rally attendee was killed, two rally attendees are in critical condition and Donald Trump suffered a non-fatal gunshot wound. The shooter is dead after being shot dead by the United States Secret Service. (Photo by Kyle Mazza/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Investors will initially favor traditional safe-haven assets and may lean toward trades more closely tied to former President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the White House after he survived an assassination attempt, according to market watchers.
“There will undoubtedly be some protectionist or safe-haven flows into Asia early this morning,” said Nick Twidale, chief market analyst at ATFX Global Markets. “I suspect gold could test all-time highs, we’ll see the yen being bought and the dollar, and flows into Treasuries as well.”
Early market commentary suggested Trump’s shooting at a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday could also prompt traders to increase his likelihood of success in the November election. His support for looser fiscal policy and higher tariffs is generally seen as likely to benefit the dollar and weaken Treasuries.
An indicator of market sentiment heading into the weekend: Bitcoin surged above $60,000, likely reflecting Trump’s pro-crypto stance.
Other assets positively linked to the so-called Trump trade include stocks of energy companies, private prisons, credit card companies and health insurers.
Traders will also be closely watching market measures of expected volatility on Monday, such as those in the tariff-sensitive Chinese yuan and Mexican peso, which have begun to price in the U.S. vote.
Trump said he was shot in the right ear after a shooting at his rally. His campaign said in a statement that he was “fine” after the incident, which prompted him to rush off the stage.
“Currencies will be the first major market on Monday in Asia to react to the weekend’s shots. There’s potential for extra volatility, and getting a clear reading could be especially difficult because liquidity will be hurt by Japan’s national holiday,” said Garfield Reynolds, Asia team leader for Bloomberg Markets Live.
Strategists had already expected a volatile run-up to the election, particularly as Democrats are still agonizing over President Joe Biden’s candidacy after his poor performance in last month’s debate raised questions about his age. Investors were also grappling with the possibility that the election could end in a drawn-out dispute or political violence.
But there is little precedent for events like those in Pennsylvania. When President Ronald Reagan was shot four decades ago, the stock market plunged before closing early. The next day, March 31, 1981, the S&P 500 rose more than 1% and benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell 9 basis points to 13.13%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Bond investors should pay particular attention as the attack is likely to boost Trump’s election chances and ultimately lead to concerns about the fiscal outlook, according to Marko Papic, chief strategist at California-based BCA Research Inc.
“The bond market must at some point become aware of President Trump’s greater chances of winning the White House than any of his rivals,” Papic wrote. “And I continue to believe that as his chances increase, so too must the likelihood of a bond market revolt.”
Kyle Rodda, senior financial markets analyst at Capital.com, said he was seeing client flows into Bitcoin and gold following the shooting.
“This news marks a turning point in American policy norms,” he said. “For markets, it means safe-haven trades, but more tilted toward non-traditional safe-havens.”
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Latest Business News Live Updates Today, July 11, 2024
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Jio Financial share price: Should you buy this Reliance group stock on Monday ahead of Q1 FY2024 results?
Q1 2024 Results: Jio Financial Share Price will be in focus on Monday as the Reliance Group company has a fixed board meeting on July 15, 2024 to consider and approve the company’s unaudited standalone and consolidated financial results. Trust Group company informed about the Q1 2024 Results date on Wednesday last week via an exchange filing. According to stock market experts, Jio Financial Services Limited is poised to deliver impressive Q1 results for FY25 on solid operating income. They have forecast a healthy QoQ PAT for the company in Q1 FY25.
Jio Financial Services News
Speaking on the Jio Financial Services Q1 2024 results, Manish Chowdhury, Head of Research, StoxBox, said, “We believe Jio Financial Services is poised to deliver impressive results in Q1FY25 aided by its operating income, which is likely to show robust growth driven by strong investment income, which in turn should lead to healthy PAT growth on a sequential basis. Jio Financial Services continues to make strategic moves such as launching digital products and expanding its ecosystem, with a clear focus on future growth. The company has announced plans to introduce products for lending against stocks and mutual funds, leveraging Jio’s large user base, which could be a significant growth driver in the coming quarters.”
“Furthermore, with the NBFC receiving RBI approval to become a primary investment company, Jio Financial Services is well-positioned to unlock value from its investments. Overall, we expect the company to report robust numbers in the upcoming quarter,” the StoxBox expert added.
Jio Financial Stock Target Price
Speaking about the technical outlook of Jio Financial share price, Ganesh Dongre, Senior Manager, Technical Research at Anand Rathi, said, “Jio Financial Services share price is poised to make a fresh high at the ₹260 apiece level. If the stock breaks above this mark, the Reliance Group stock could make a fresh high by touching the ₹290-₹295 zone. Hence, those with Jio Finance stock in their portfolio are advised to stick to the script by keeping a stop loss at ₹205. If the stock breaks above ₹260 decisively, then one can upgrade the stop loss at ₹240 for the near-term target of ₹295.”
On the advice to new buyers regarding Jio Financial stock, Ganesh Dongre said, “New buyers are advised to wait for the breakout. Once the stock breaks above ₹260, one can buy this Reliance Group stock at the short term target of ₹295, keeping a stop loss of ₹240 apiece.”
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or brokerage firms, and not of Mint. Investors are advised to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
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