News
What to know this week
Actions got together during a quiet week for Wall Street economic data.
The Nasdaq composite (^IXIC) rose just under 1%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) exploded by almost 2%. The S&P 500 ended Friday above 5,200 for the first time since early April. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose more than 2% for the week and closed higher for eight consecutive sessions.
Next week, a crucial April inflation reading and an update on retail sales will highlight the economic calendar. Initial jobless claims will also be in focus after the weekly data set reached a surprising nine-month high in the first week of May.
On the corporate side, Walmart (WMT), HomeDepot (High definition) and Alibaba (NANNY) lead a quieter week of quarterly reports as earnings season slows.
Price check
Stickier-than-expected inflation reports was the headline of the first quarter of economic data, prompting investors to scale back expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2024.
On Wednesday, investors will see for the first time whether this trend continued into the second quarter with the release of the April Consumer Price Index (CPI). Wall Street expects a 3.4% annual gain for the core CPI, which includes food and energy prices, a drop from the previous year. Headline number of 3.5% in March. Prices are expected to rise 0.4% month-on-month, in line with the increase in March.
On a “core” basis, which excludes food and energy prices, inflation is expected to have increased 3.6% year over year, a slowdown from the 3.8% increase seen in March. Monthly increases are expected of basic prices are 0.3%, below the 0.4% of the previous month.
Morgan Stanley’s economics team, led by Ellen Zentner, wrote in a research note that it believes the decline in inflation “starts” with the April CPI report, led by reduced pressures on car insurance, rental and care prices. of health. This, Zentner’s team argues, could sustain three Fed interest rate cuts this year.
“Weaker monthly prints ahead with faster disinflation starting in [the second half of 2024] provides the Fed with much-needed confidence that inflation is on a sustained path toward the target,” the Morgan Stanley team wrote.
This would likely be a welcome sign for markets, according to Fundstrat head of research Tom Lee.
“We think the April CPI could increase the number of Fed cuts [priced into the market],” Lee wrote in a note to customers on Friday. That, Lee said, would be “positive for stocks.”
At the start of the week, markets are currently pricing in fewer than two interest rate cuts this year, according to Bloomberg Data.
The story continues
Retail Reading
With the Fed keeping interest rates high for longer, economists continue to watch closely for any signs that consumer resilience spending is decreasing.
A new reading on this trend is expected to greet investors on Wednesday with the April retail sales report. Economists expect retail sales to rise 0.4% in April from the previous month, below the 0.7% increase seen in March.
Investors will also be closely watching earnings from Home Depot (Tuesday) and Walmart (Thursday) for signs of how the American consumer is behaving. Until now, company results have provided mixed results on how Americans are spending.
“Spending data continued to surprise on the upside, but we have a sense that households are increasingly prioritizing purchases,” the Wells Fargo economist team wrote in a weekly research note. “Although volatile and non-discretionary categories outpaced discretionary categories in trend last year. Industry commentary included in first-quarter earnings releases also emphasized a decline in the value-seeking consumer.”
Customers purchase vegetables at the Walmart Supercenter in North Bergen, Thursday, Feb. 9, 2023, in New Jersey. (AP Photo/Eduardo Munoz Alvarez) (ASSOCIATED PRESS)
Earnings Update
With 92% of the S&P 500 reporting first-quarter earnings, the index is on track for its biggest year-over-year earnings growth since the second quarter of 2022. As of Friday afternoon, the S&P 500 was on track for earnings growth 5.4% in the first quarter, notably above the 3.2% expected for bank profits at the beginning of April.
FactSet senior earnings analyst John Butters points out that the index is actually doing even better by removing a huge earnings loss from just one company. Bristol-Meyers Squibb (BMI) reported a loss in the first quarter, hurting the overall performance of the S&P 500 this quarter. Excluding the healthcare company, the S&P 500 is on track for growth of 8.3%, according to Butters.
Stocks Aren’t Applauding Hot Data
Since inflation began to soar in 2021, the stock market has struggled with how it reacts to economic data. And this continues in 2024.
In a weekly note to clients, Citi U.S. equity strategist Scott Chronert examined how stocks are reacting to more positive-than-expected economic data. Investors began the year applauding the data as it predicted a “soft landing” for the US economy, where inflation would return to the Fed’s 2% target without an economic recession. At that time, the S&P 500 rose along with the Citi Economic Surprise Index, which assesses whether data is coming in better than consensus expectations.
But after recent high inflation data, markets have been more nervous as investors increasingly priced in “no landing”, where inflation does not reach the Fed’s target, but the economy continues to grow.
This led the market to consider good economic news as bad news for inflation and therefore bad for market rate reduction hopes. Subsequently, the correlation between the S&P 500 and economic surprise headed into negative territory.
“This suggests that hot macroeconomic data has increasingly threatened the soft landing narrative that may be needed to push markets above these lofty valuation levels,” Chronert wrote.
If inflation data shows a new slowdown, the question is whether the good news about economic growth will once again be welcomed by the market.
Weekly Calendar
Monday
Economic data: New York Fed One-Year Inflation Expectations, April (3% previously)
Earnings: BuzzFeed (BZFD), Petrobras (PBR), Stone (STNE), Tencent Music Entertainment (TME)
Tuesday
Economic data: NFIB Small Business Optimism, April (88.2 expected, 88.5 previously); Producer Price Index, month over month, April (+0.3% expected, +0.2% previously); PPI, year-over-year, April (+2.2% expected, 2.1% previously)
Earnings: Alibaba (NANNY), HomeDepot (High definition), Canoo (GOEV), Bang (RUM), Sony (SONY),
Wednesday
Economic data: Consumer Price Index, month over month, April (+0.4% expected, +0.4% previously); Core CPI, month-over-month, April (+0.3% expected, +0.4% previously); CPI, year-over-year, April (+3.4% expected, +3.5% previously); Core CPI, year-over-year, April (+3.6% expected, +3.8% previously); Average real hourly earnings, year on year, April (+0.6% previously); MBA Mortgage Applications, week ending May 10 (+2.6%); Retail sales, month-over-month, April (+0.4%% expected, +0.7% previously); Retail sales excluding autos and gas, April (+0.1% expected, +1% previously); NAHB Housing Market Index, May (51 expected, 51 previously)
Earnings: Cisco (CSCO), Dole (DOLE), Monday.com (MNDY), Super League (LES)
Thursday
Economic data: Initial unemployment claims, week ending May 11 (previously 233,000); Housing begins month-to-month, April (8.6% expected, -14.7% previous); Month-over-month building permits, April (+1.6% expected, -3.7% previous); Philadelphia Business Outlook, May (8.7 expected, 15.5 previous); Import prices, month-on-month, April (+0.2% expected, +0.4% previously); Export prices, month-on-month, April (+0.2% expected, +0.3% previously); Industrial production, month-on-month, April (+0.2% expected, +0.4% previously)
Earnings: Wal-Mart (WMT), Applied Materials (LOVE), Baidu (BIDU), JD. with (J.D.), John Deere (IN), Take-Two interactive (TWO), Under Armor (UAA)
Friday
Economic data: Main index, April (-0.2% expected, -0.3% previously)
Earnings: No notable gains.
Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.
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The spotlight next week will shift somewhat to the Federal Reserve’s second-quarter earnings season and monetary policy. Market watchers will be treated to results from several major names, including Dow 30 components Goldman Sachs (GS), UnitedHealth (UNH), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and American Express (AXP), along with streaming giant Netflix (NFLX).
The Fed will still attract some attention as investors will be eager to hear from a packed lineup of central bank speakers just before the policy meeting lockout period.
In terms of the economic calendar, after fifteen days of labor market and inflation indicators, activity data will gain momentum in the form of the latest retail sales and industrial production reports.
Earnings Highlight: Monday, July 15 – Goldman Sachs (GS) and BlackRock (Black). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Tuesday, July 16 – UnitedHealth (UNH), Bank of America (BAC), Progressive (PGR), Morgan Stanley (IN), PNC Financial (PNC) and JB Hunt Transport (JBHT). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Wednesday, July 17 – Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), US Bancorp (USB), Morgan Children (KMI), United Airlines (UAL) and Ally Financial (ALLY). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Thursday, July 18 – Netflix (NFLX), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Black stone (BX), Domino’s pizza (ZDP) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Friday, July 19 – American Express (AXP), Halliburton (THANKS) and Travelers (VRT (return to recoverable value)) See the full earnings calendar.
IPO Observation: Hospital and healthcare clinic operator Ardent Health Partners (TARDT), insurance service provider Twfg (TWFG) and the biotechnology company Lirum Therapeutics (LRTX) are expected to price their IPOs and begin trading next week. The analyst quiet period ends at Rectitude (RECT) to free up analysts to publish ratings.
Police cars outside the residence of Thomas Matthew Crooks, the suspected shooter at a Trump rally on Saturday, investigate the area in Pennsylvania. Following the incident, one rally attendee was killed, two rally attendees are in critical condition and Donald Trump suffered a non-fatal gunshot wound. The shooter is dead after being shot dead by the United States Secret Service. (Photo by Kyle Mazza/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Investors will initially favor traditional safe-haven assets and may lean toward trades more closely tied to former President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the White House after he survived an assassination attempt, according to market watchers.
“There will undoubtedly be some protectionist or safe-haven flows into Asia early this morning,” said Nick Twidale, chief market analyst at ATFX Global Markets. “I suspect gold could test all-time highs, we’ll see the yen being bought and the dollar, and flows into Treasuries as well.”
Early market commentary suggested Trump’s shooting at a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday could also prompt traders to increase his likelihood of success in the November election. His support for looser fiscal policy and higher tariffs is generally seen as likely to benefit the dollar and weaken Treasuries.
An indicator of market sentiment heading into the weekend: Bitcoin surged above $60,000, likely reflecting Trump’s pro-crypto stance.
Other assets positively linked to the so-called Trump trade include stocks of energy companies, private prisons, credit card companies and health insurers.
Traders will also be closely watching market measures of expected volatility on Monday, such as those in the tariff-sensitive Chinese yuan and Mexican peso, which have begun to price in the U.S. vote.
Trump said he was shot in the right ear after a shooting at his rally. His campaign said in a statement that he was “fine” after the incident, which prompted him to rush off the stage.
“Currencies will be the first major market on Monday in Asia to react to the weekend’s shots. There’s potential for extra volatility, and getting a clear reading could be especially difficult because liquidity will be hurt by Japan’s national holiday,” said Garfield Reynolds, Asia team leader for Bloomberg Markets Live.
Strategists had already expected a volatile run-up to the election, particularly as Democrats are still agonizing over President Joe Biden’s candidacy after his poor performance in last month’s debate raised questions about his age. Investors were also grappling with the possibility that the election could end in a drawn-out dispute or political violence.
But there is little precedent for events like those in Pennsylvania. When President Ronald Reagan was shot four decades ago, the stock market plunged before closing early. The next day, March 31, 1981, the S&P 500 rose more than 1% and benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell 9 basis points to 13.13%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Bond investors should pay particular attention as the attack is likely to boost Trump’s election chances and ultimately lead to concerns about the fiscal outlook, according to Marko Papic, chief strategist at California-based BCA Research Inc.
“The bond market must at some point become aware of President Trump’s greater chances of winning the White House than any of his rivals,” Papic wrote. “And I continue to believe that as his chances increase, so too must the likelihood of a bond market revolt.”
Kyle Rodda, senior financial markets analyst at Capital.com, said he was seeing client flows into Bitcoin and gold following the shooting.
“This news marks a turning point in American policy norms,” he said. “For markets, it means safe-haven trades, but more tilted toward non-traditional safe-havens.”
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Latest news on July 11, 2024: Airtel says its new Xstream Fiber plans bundle over 350 live TV channels (Official Photo) (Reuters) Disclaimer: This is an AI-generated live blog and has not been edited by Hindustan Times staff.
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 08:44 PM
Business News LIVE Updates: Decoding Airtel’s new Xstream Fiber packages, finding value with Live TV and OTT
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 03:58 PM
Business News LIVE Updates: TCS Q1 results meet estimates: Net profit up 9%, ₹10 dividend declared
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 03:51 PM
Business News LIVE Updates: Indian companies falsified generic Viagra data to get approval, says US FDA: Report
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 03:09 PM
LIVE Business News Updates: Namita Thapar’s emotional post on Emcure IPO listing: ‘Mirza Ghalib sums up my feelings’
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 02:39 PM
LIVE business news updates: Amazon could face investigation over treatment of UK food suppliers, watchdog says
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 01:39 PM
LIVE Business News Updates: This Bengaluru company aims to launch a ‘space habitat’ by 2027, in talks with SpaceX
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 01:10 PM
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 12:44 PM
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 12:18 PM
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 11:30 AM
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 11:04 AM
LIVE Business News Updates: TCS Share Price Surges Ahead of Q1 Results: What Brokers Say About the Stock
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 10:22 AM
LIVE Business News Updates: Reliance Jio IPO listing likely in 2025 at $112 billion valuation: Jefferies
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 09:42 AM
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 09:16 AM
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 08:40 AM
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 08:35 AM
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 07:59 AM
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 07:45 AM
Business News LIVE Updates: US stock markets at record highs led by world’s biggest tech companies
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News / Business / Latest Business News Live Updates Today, July 11, 2024
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News
Jio Financial share price: Should you buy this Reliance group stock on Monday ahead of Q1 FY2024 results?
Q1 2024 Results: Jio Financial Share Price will be in focus on Monday as the Reliance Group company has a fixed board meeting on July 15, 2024 to consider and approve the company’s unaudited standalone and consolidated financial results. Trust Group company informed about the Q1 2024 Results date on Wednesday last week via an exchange filing. According to stock market experts, Jio Financial Services Limited is poised to deliver impressive Q1 results for FY25 on solid operating income. They have forecast a healthy QoQ PAT for the company in Q1 FY25.
Jio Financial Services News
Speaking on the Jio Financial Services Q1 2024 results, Manish Chowdhury, Head of Research, StoxBox, said, “We believe Jio Financial Services is poised to deliver impressive results in Q1FY25 aided by its operating income, which is likely to show robust growth driven by strong investment income, which in turn should lead to healthy PAT growth on a sequential basis. Jio Financial Services continues to make strategic moves such as launching digital products and expanding its ecosystem, with a clear focus on future growth. The company has announced plans to introduce products for lending against stocks and mutual funds, leveraging Jio’s large user base, which could be a significant growth driver in the coming quarters.”
“Furthermore, with the NBFC receiving RBI approval to become a primary investment company, Jio Financial Services is well-positioned to unlock value from its investments. Overall, we expect the company to report robust numbers in the upcoming quarter,” the StoxBox expert added.
Jio Financial Stock Target Price
Speaking about the technical outlook of Jio Financial share price, Ganesh Dongre, Senior Manager, Technical Research at Anand Rathi, said, “Jio Financial Services share price is poised to make a fresh high at the ₹260 apiece level. If the stock breaks above this mark, the Reliance Group stock could make a fresh high by touching the ₹290-₹295 zone. Hence, those with Jio Finance stock in their portfolio are advised to stick to the script by keeping a stop loss at ₹205. If the stock breaks above ₹260 decisively, then one can upgrade the stop loss at ₹240 for the near-term target of ₹295.”
On the advice to new buyers regarding Jio Financial stock, Ganesh Dongre said, “New buyers are advised to wait for the breakout. Once the stock breaks above ₹260, one can buy this Reliance Group stock at the short term target of ₹295, keeping a stop loss of ₹240 apiece.”
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or brokerage firms, and not of Mint. Investors are advised to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
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