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US economic growth in the last quarter was revised slightly to an annual rate of 1.4%
WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. economy expanded at an annual pace of 1.4% from January to March, the slowest quarterly growth since the spring of 2022, the government said Thursday in a slight update to its previous estimate. Consumer spending grew at a rate of just 1.5%, below the initial estimate of 2%, in a sign that high interest rates may be hurting the economy.
The Commerce Department previously estimated that gross domestic product — the economy’s total output of goods and services — advanced at a rate of 1.3% last quarter.
First-quarter GDP growth marked a sharp pullback from the strong 3.4% pace during the last three months of 2023. Still, Thursday’s report showed that the slowdown from January to March was mainly caused by two factors — an increase in imports and a decline in business inventories — that can vary from quarter to quarter and do not necessarily reflect the underlying health of the economy.
Imports shaved 0.82 percentage point off first-quarter growth. Lower inventories subtracted 0.42 percentage point.
Making up for the slack was business investment, which, according to the government, increased at an annual rate of 4.4% in the last quarter, above the previous estimate of 3.2%. Increased investment in factories and other non-residential buildings and in software and other types of intellectual property helped drive the increase.
After growing at a solid annual pace of more than 3% in the second half of 2023, consumer spending slowed sharply in the last quarter. Spending on appliances, furniture and other goods fell at an annual rate of 2.3%, while spending on travel, restaurant meals and other services increased at a rate of 3.3%.
Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Independent Advisor Alliance, called the drop in consumer spending “a cause for concern.” Consumers account for about 70% of U.S. economic activity.
“The economy remained resilient in the first quarter,” said Gregory Daco, chief economist at tax and consulting firm EY. But “demand growth in the private sector was cooling, led by greater consumer prudence. with business investment maintaining moderate momentum.”
Many economists had expected growth to strengthen in the current April-June quarter. But a forecasting model from Oxford Economics — based on economic statistics that have been reported so far — points instead to a tepid 1.3% growth rate this quarter.
The US economy, the largest in the world, has proven surprisingly resilient in the face of higher interest rates. The Federal Reserve increased its referral rate 11 times in 2022 and 2023 to a 23-year high to try to tame the worst bout of inflation in four decades. Most economists predicted that the sharply higher consumer lending rates that resulted from the Fed’s rate hikes would tip the economy into a recession.
The story continues
That didn’t happen. The economy kept growing, albeit at a slower pace, and employers kept hiring. In May, the nation added a robust 272,000 jobs, though the unemployment rate rose for a second straight month, to a still-low 4%. At the same time, overall inflation, as measured by the government’s main price index, fell from a peak of 9.1% in 2022. to 3.3%still above the Fed’s 2% target level.
The state of the economy is certain to be a central topic on Thursday night when President Joe Biden debates Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee. While the economy remains healthy by most measures and inflation is well below its peak, many Americans say they are frustrated that overall prices are still well above pre-pandemic levels. Higher rents and groceries are particular sources of discontent, and Trump has sought to shift the blame to Biden in a threat to the president’s reelection bid.
A measure of inflation in the January-March GDP report showed that price pressures accelerated in early 2024. Consumer prices rose at an annual pace of 3.4%, up from 1.8% in the fourth quarter of 2023. Excluding volatile food and energy costs, so-called core inflation rose at an annual pace of 3.7%, up from 2% in each of the previous two quarters.
In light of still-high inflationary pressures, Fed policymakers earlier this month collectively predicted they would cut their benchmark rate just once in 2024, down from their previous forecast of three rate cuts. Most economists expect the first rate cut to come in September, with possibly a second cut in December.
Thursday’s report was the government’s third and final estimate of first-quarter GDP growth. The Commerce Department will release its first estimate of the current-quarter economic performance on July 25.
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Breakfast on Wall Street: The Week Ahead
The spotlight next week will shift somewhat to the Federal Reserve’s second-quarter earnings season and monetary policy. Market watchers will be treated to results from several major names, including Dow 30 components Goldman Sachs (GS), UnitedHealth (UNH), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and American Express (AXP), along with streaming giant Netflix (NFLX).
The Fed will still attract some attention as investors will be eager to hear from a packed lineup of central bank speakers just before the policy meeting lockout period.
In terms of the economic calendar, after fifteen days of labor market and inflation indicators, activity data will gain momentum in the form of the latest retail sales and industrial production reports.
Earnings Highlight: Monday, July 15 – Goldman Sachs (GS) and BlackRock (Black). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Tuesday, July 16 – UnitedHealth (UNH), Bank of America (BAC), Progressive (PGR), Morgan Stanley (IN), PNC Financial (PNC) and JB Hunt Transport (JBHT). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Wednesday, July 17 – Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), US Bancorp (USB), Morgan Children (KMI), United Airlines (UAL) and Ally Financial (ALLY). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Thursday, July 18 – Netflix (NFLX), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Black stone (BX), Domino’s pizza (ZDP) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Friday, July 19 – American Express (AXP), Halliburton (THANKS) and Travelers (VRT (return to recoverable value)) See the full earnings calendar.
IPO Observation: Hospital and healthcare clinic operator Ardent Health Partners (TARDT), insurance service provider Twfg (TWFG) and the biotechnology company Lirum Therapeutics (LRTX) are expected to price their IPOs and begin trading next week. The analyst quiet period ends at Rectitude (RECT) to free up analysts to publish ratings.
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Trump shooting: Gold could hit record high, dollar and cryptocurrencies set to jump
Police cars outside the residence of Thomas Matthew Crooks, the suspected shooter at a Trump rally on Saturday, investigate the area in Pennsylvania. Following the incident, one rally attendee was killed, two rally attendees are in critical condition and Donald Trump suffered a non-fatal gunshot wound. The shooter is dead after being shot dead by the United States Secret Service. (Photo by Kyle Mazza/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Investors will initially favor traditional safe-haven assets and may lean toward trades more closely tied to former President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the White House after he survived an assassination attempt, according to market watchers.
“There will undoubtedly be some protectionist or safe-haven flows into Asia early this morning,” said Nick Twidale, chief market analyst at ATFX Global Markets. “I suspect gold could test all-time highs, we’ll see the yen being bought and the dollar, and flows into Treasuries as well.”
Early market commentary suggested Trump’s shooting at a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday could also prompt traders to increase his likelihood of success in the November election. His support for looser fiscal policy and higher tariffs is generally seen as likely to benefit the dollar and weaken Treasuries.
An indicator of market sentiment heading into the weekend: Bitcoin surged above $60,000, likely reflecting Trump’s pro-crypto stance.
Other assets positively linked to the so-called Trump trade include stocks of energy companies, private prisons, credit card companies and health insurers.
Traders will also be closely watching market measures of expected volatility on Monday, such as those in the tariff-sensitive Chinese yuan and Mexican peso, which have begun to price in the U.S. vote.
Trump said he was shot in the right ear after a shooting at his rally. His campaign said in a statement that he was “fine” after the incident, which prompted him to rush off the stage.
“Currencies will be the first major market on Monday in Asia to react to the weekend’s shots. There’s potential for extra volatility, and getting a clear reading could be especially difficult because liquidity will be hurt by Japan’s national holiday,” said Garfield Reynolds, Asia team leader for Bloomberg Markets Live.
Strategists had already expected a volatile run-up to the election, particularly as Democrats are still agonizing over President Joe Biden’s candidacy after his poor performance in last month’s debate raised questions about his age. Investors were also grappling with the possibility that the election could end in a drawn-out dispute or political violence.
But there is little precedent for events like those in Pennsylvania. When President Ronald Reagan was shot four decades ago, the stock market plunged before closing early. The next day, March 31, 1981, the S&P 500 rose more than 1% and benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell 9 basis points to 13.13%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Bond investors should pay particular attention as the attack is likely to boost Trump’s election chances and ultimately lead to concerns about the fiscal outlook, according to Marko Papic, chief strategist at California-based BCA Research Inc.
“The bond market must at some point become aware of President Trump’s greater chances of winning the White House than any of his rivals,” Papic wrote. “And I continue to believe that as his chances increase, so too must the likelihood of a bond market revolt.”
Kyle Rodda, senior financial markets analyst at Capital.com, said he was seeing client flows into Bitcoin and gold following the shooting.
“This news marks a turning point in American policy norms,” he said. “For markets, it means safe-haven trades, but more tilted toward non-traditional safe-havens.”
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Latest Business News Live Updates Today, July 11, 2024
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 08:44 PM
Business News LIVE Updates: Decoding Airtel’s new Xstream Fiber packages, finding value with Live TV and OTT
- Airtel confirms to HT that the live TV proposition is being delivered using its DTH network, while the bundled streaming subscriptions are an extension of its Xstream Play platform.
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 03:58 PM
Business News LIVE Updates: TCS Q1 results meet estimates: Net profit up 9%, ₹10 dividend declared
- TCS’s consolidated revenue rose 5.4% to Rs 626.13 billion in the June quarter. Analysts had expected revenue of Rs 622.07 billion, as per LSEG data.
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 03:51 PM
Business News LIVE Updates: Indian companies falsified generic Viagra data to get approval, says US FDA: Report
- Synapse Labs Pvt. Ltd may have been used in hundreds of drugs that are still available for sale, the report said.
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 03:09 PM
LIVE Business News Updates: Namita Thapar’s emotional post on Emcure IPO listing: ‘Mirza Ghalib sums up my feelings’
- Emcure Pharmaceuticals was listed at ₹1,325.05, up 31.45% on the BSE and NSE on July 10.
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 02:39 PM
LIVE business news updates: Amazon could face investigation over treatment of UK food suppliers, watchdog says
- An Amazon spokesperson said the company has made several improvements for food suppliers since last year’s results.
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 01:39 PM
LIVE Business News Updates: This Bengaluru company aims to launch a ‘space habitat’ by 2027, in talks with SpaceX
- AkashaLabdhi calls itself a “home among the stars” as it says the company’s area of expertise is signal processing and continuous automation.
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 01:10 PM
Business News LIVE Updates: Amazon India employees on working conditions: Made to stand for hours, bathroom breaks not allowed
- A survey conducted by UNI Global Union with the Amazon India Workers Association had 1,838 participants who alleged appalling working conditions at Amazon facilities in India.
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 12:44 PM
LIVE Business News Updates: UK overhauls listing rules in bid to attract IPOs to London: What has changed?
- The new rules allow companies to carry out more activities without putting them to a shareholder vote, the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority said.
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 12:18 PM
Business News LIVE Updates: Want to send money abroad? Open foreign currency accounts at GIFT City
- Foreign currency accounts will be like a bank account in India, but instead of rupees, you hold foreign currency like US dollars.
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 11:30 AM
Business News LIVE Updates: First Abu Dhabi Bank denies interest in acquiring stake in Yes Bank: Report
- The report said the Yes Bank stake sale has attracted interest from Japan, including Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc.
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 11:04 AM
LIVE Business News Updates: TCS Share Price Surges Ahead of Q1 Results: What Brokers Say About the Stock
- TCS Share Price: The stock opened at ₹3,944.65 against its previous close of ₹3,909.90. It then rose 1.8 percent to ₹3,979.90 level.
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 10:22 AM
LIVE Business News Updates: Reliance Jio IPO listing likely in 2025 at $112 billion valuation: Jefferies
- Jio “could list at a valuation of $112 billion” and add “7-15 percent upside” to Reliance Industries’ share price, Jefferies said.
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 09:42 AM
LIVE Business News Updates: Yes Bank shares rise after Moody’s revises outlook to ‘positive’ from ‘stable’
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 09:16 AM
Business News LIVE Updates: Sahaj Solar IPO opens today: All you need to know before subscribing to the issue
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 08:40 AM
LIVE Business News Updates: Why Analysts Believe India’s Earnings Season May Disappoint Stock Market Investors
- Investors in Indian stocks hoping for a robust earnings season to justify expensive valuations are likely to be disappointed.
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 08:35 AM
LIVE Business News Updates: Elon Musk Says Second Neuralink Brain Implant Will ‘Give People Superpowers’ Within a Week
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 07:59 AM
LIVE Business News Updates: Apple warns Indian iPhone users of possible Pegasus-like ‘spyware attack’
- In April this year, the Indian Computer Emergency Response Team (Cert-In) flagged several vulnerabilities in Apple’s operating system for iPhone and iPad.
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 07:45 AM
Business News LIVE Updates: US stock markets at record highs led by world’s biggest tech companies
- The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 2.4% to a record high after Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. reported strong quarterly revenue.
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News / Business / Latest Business News Live Updates Today, July 11, 2024
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Jio Financial share price: Should you buy this Reliance group stock on Monday ahead of Q1 FY2024 results?
Q1 2024 Results: Jio Financial Share Price will be in focus on Monday as the Reliance Group company has a fixed board meeting on July 15, 2024 to consider and approve the company’s unaudited standalone and consolidated financial results. Trust Group company informed about the Q1 2024 Results date on Wednesday last week via an exchange filing. According to stock market experts, Jio Financial Services Limited is poised to deliver impressive Q1 results for FY25 on solid operating income. They have forecast a healthy QoQ PAT for the company in Q1 FY25.
Jio Financial Services News
Speaking on the Jio Financial Services Q1 2024 results, Manish Chowdhury, Head of Research, StoxBox, said, “We believe Jio Financial Services is poised to deliver impressive results in Q1FY25 aided by its operating income, which is likely to show robust growth driven by strong investment income, which in turn should lead to healthy PAT growth on a sequential basis. Jio Financial Services continues to make strategic moves such as launching digital products and expanding its ecosystem, with a clear focus on future growth. The company has announced plans to introduce products for lending against stocks and mutual funds, leveraging Jio’s large user base, which could be a significant growth driver in the coming quarters.”
“Furthermore, with the NBFC receiving RBI approval to become a primary investment company, Jio Financial Services is well-positioned to unlock value from its investments. Overall, we expect the company to report robust numbers in the upcoming quarter,” the StoxBox expert added.
Jio Financial Stock Target Price
Speaking about the technical outlook of Jio Financial share price, Ganesh Dongre, Senior Manager, Technical Research at Anand Rathi, said, “Jio Financial Services share price is poised to make a fresh high at the ₹260 apiece level. If the stock breaks above this mark, the Reliance Group stock could make a fresh high by touching the ₹290-₹295 zone. Hence, those with Jio Finance stock in their portfolio are advised to stick to the script by keeping a stop loss at ₹205. If the stock breaks above ₹260 decisively, then one can upgrade the stop loss at ₹240 for the near-term target of ₹295.”
On the advice to new buyers regarding Jio Financial stock, Ganesh Dongre said, “New buyers are advised to wait for the breakout. Once the stock breaks above ₹260, one can buy this Reliance Group stock at the short term target of ₹295, keeping a stop loss of ₹240 apiece.”
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or brokerage firms, and not of Mint. Investors are advised to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
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