News
US economic confidence falls for second straight month
Story Highlights
- After improvements in early 2024, sentiments took a negative turn in April and May
- Both components of the index are at their lowest level since November
- Government, immigration and economy remain top issues cited in the US
WASHINGTON, DC — Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index registered -34 in May, reflecting a further deterioration in how Americans assess the current state of the economy as well as its trajectory.
The index improved significantly from -40 in November to -20 in March, before falling to -29 in April.
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Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index summarizes Americans’ assessments of current economic conditions (as excellent, good, only fair, or poor) and their outlook for the economy (whether they believe it is improving or worsening).
The index has a theoretical range of +100 (if all Americans rate current conditions as excellent or good and say the economy is improving) to -100 (if all Americans rate the economy as bad and say it is getting worse). In the trend of these Gallup measures since 1992, the highest ECI score was +56 in January 2000, and the lowest was -72 in October 2008.
The latest results come from a Gallup poll from May 1 to May 23, which shows that economic confidence has not improved despite somewhat positive economic news. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose substantially for much of that period, though it lost some of those gains in the final week of the survey. Earlier this month, the U.S. Labor Department reported an increase in U.S. jobs, but at a slower pace than in most months last year.
Assessments of current economic conditions are the most negative since November
Twenty-two percent of Americans describe current U.S. economic conditions as “excellent” or “good,” down slightly from the previous month and marking the lowest number on record since December’s 22 percent.
Since the start of 2022, Americans have been consistently more likely to describe the current state of the economy as “bad.” The latest measure shows that 46% of Americans view the economy that way, up only slightly from April’s reading but the highest since November.
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The net effect of these changes is that the current conditions component of the index fell to -24 from -20 in April and is the lowest score for this component since November (-31).
Economic outlook also returns to autumn levels
Americans have been consistently more negative than positive in their assessments of the economy’s trajectory since May 2021.
The May 2024 poll found that seven in 10 Americans (70%) say the economy is “getting worse,” while 26% say it is “getting better.”
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This results in a net optimism score of -44 for the economic outlook component of the index, down from -38 in April and the lowest since November (-49).
Economy and inflation still near the top of the list of most important US problems
Americans’ decreasing confidence in the national economy is also evident in their constant mentions of the economy and inflation as two of the main factors the most important problems facing the US Immigration and government are also high on the list.
Immigration surpassed the other three in February, March and April, but mentions of the issue have dropped nine percentage points since last month.
In May, government (21%), immigration (18%) and the economy overall (17%) are statistically tied as the nation’s most important issue, while 12% of American adults cite inflation.
Mentions of immigration are down significantly from April and previous months, when they essentially tied the July 2019 reading as the highest in Gallup’s trend. Illegal border crossings between the U.S. and Mexico have remained at high levels this year.
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Partisans continue to offer differing perspectives on America’s most pressing issue, with 43 percent of Republicans and just 5 percent of Democrats mentioning immigration. Independents have become much less likely to name the issue since April, with mentions falling 14 points to the current 11 percent for that group.
Republicans (22%) are twice as likely as Democrats (11%) to cite the economy, while Democrats (27%) are more likely than Republicans (15%) to cite government. American adults in both partisan groups are about equally likely to cite inflation — 14% of Republicans and 10% of Democrats do so.
Conclusion
Economic confidence has declined over the past two months. However, it is still notably better than most measures collected in 2022 and 2023. Gallup’s monthly updates will better indicate whether this is a momentary slowdown or a significant reversal in confidence as this election year progresses. While confidence in the economy is not always a deciding factor in election outcomes, the current index number is similar to what happened when George HW Bush was defeated in 1992.
The economy and inflation remain top of mind for Americans when asked to name the biggest problem facing the nation, but fewer now mention inflation than they did between early 2022 and early 2023, a period when economic confidence was also lower than it is now. Government, which has consistently topped the list for the past decade and a half, and immigration compete with economic issues as the top issues, according to Americans. Mentions of immigration remain high, but have at least temporarily eased from the peaks recorded by Gallup earlier this year — perhaps in response to the decline in migrants crossing the border in May.
To stay up to date with the latest insights and updates from Gallup News, follow us on X @Gallup.
Learn more about how the Gallup Poll Social Series it works.
See full responses to questions and trends (PDF download).
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News
Breakfast on Wall Street: The Week Ahead
The spotlight next week will shift somewhat to the Federal Reserve’s second-quarter earnings season and monetary policy. Market watchers will be treated to results from several major names, including Dow 30 components Goldman Sachs (GS), UnitedHealth (UNH), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and American Express (AXP), along with streaming giant Netflix (NFLX).
The Fed will still attract some attention as investors will be eager to hear from a packed lineup of central bank speakers just before the policy meeting lockout period.
In terms of the economic calendar, after fifteen days of labor market and inflation indicators, activity data will gain momentum in the form of the latest retail sales and industrial production reports.
Earnings Highlight: Monday, July 15 – Goldman Sachs (GS) and BlackRock (Black). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Tuesday, July 16 – UnitedHealth (UNH), Bank of America (BAC), Progressive (PGR), Morgan Stanley (IN), PNC Financial (PNC) and JB Hunt Transport (JBHT). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Wednesday, July 17 – Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), US Bancorp (USB), Morgan Children (KMI), United Airlines (UAL) and Ally Financial (ALLY). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Thursday, July 18 – Netflix (NFLX), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Black stone (BX), Domino’s pizza (ZDP) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Friday, July 19 – American Express (AXP), Halliburton (THANKS) and Travelers (VRT (return to recoverable value)) See the full earnings calendar.
IPO Observation: Hospital and healthcare clinic operator Ardent Health Partners (TARDT), insurance service provider Twfg (TWFG) and the biotechnology company Lirum Therapeutics (LRTX) are expected to price their IPOs and begin trading next week. The analyst quiet period ends at Rectitude (RECT) to free up analysts to publish ratings.
News
Trump shooting: Gold could hit record high, dollar and cryptocurrencies set to jump
Police cars outside the residence of Thomas Matthew Crooks, the suspected shooter at a Trump rally on Saturday, investigate the area in Pennsylvania. Following the incident, one rally attendee was killed, two rally attendees are in critical condition and Donald Trump suffered a non-fatal gunshot wound. The shooter is dead after being shot dead by the United States Secret Service. (Photo by Kyle Mazza/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Investors will initially favor traditional safe-haven assets and may lean toward trades more closely tied to former President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the White House after he survived an assassination attempt, according to market watchers.
“There will undoubtedly be some protectionist or safe-haven flows into Asia early this morning,” said Nick Twidale, chief market analyst at ATFX Global Markets. “I suspect gold could test all-time highs, we’ll see the yen being bought and the dollar, and flows into Treasuries as well.”
Early market commentary suggested Trump’s shooting at a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday could also prompt traders to increase his likelihood of success in the November election. His support for looser fiscal policy and higher tariffs is generally seen as likely to benefit the dollar and weaken Treasuries.
An indicator of market sentiment heading into the weekend: Bitcoin surged above $60,000, likely reflecting Trump’s pro-crypto stance.
Other assets positively linked to the so-called Trump trade include stocks of energy companies, private prisons, credit card companies and health insurers.
Traders will also be closely watching market measures of expected volatility on Monday, such as those in the tariff-sensitive Chinese yuan and Mexican peso, which have begun to price in the U.S. vote.
Trump said he was shot in the right ear after a shooting at his rally. His campaign said in a statement that he was “fine” after the incident, which prompted him to rush off the stage.
“Currencies will be the first major market on Monday in Asia to react to the weekend’s shots. There’s potential for extra volatility, and getting a clear reading could be especially difficult because liquidity will be hurt by Japan’s national holiday,” said Garfield Reynolds, Asia team leader for Bloomberg Markets Live.
Strategists had already expected a volatile run-up to the election, particularly as Democrats are still agonizing over President Joe Biden’s candidacy after his poor performance in last month’s debate raised questions about his age. Investors were also grappling with the possibility that the election could end in a drawn-out dispute or political violence.
But there is little precedent for events like those in Pennsylvania. When President Ronald Reagan was shot four decades ago, the stock market plunged before closing early. The next day, March 31, 1981, the S&P 500 rose more than 1% and benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell 9 basis points to 13.13%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Bond investors should pay particular attention as the attack is likely to boost Trump’s election chances and ultimately lead to concerns about the fiscal outlook, according to Marko Papic, chief strategist at California-based BCA Research Inc.
“The bond market must at some point become aware of President Trump’s greater chances of winning the White House than any of his rivals,” Papic wrote. “And I continue to believe that as his chances increase, so too must the likelihood of a bond market revolt.”
Kyle Rodda, senior financial markets analyst at Capital.com, said he was seeing client flows into Bitcoin and gold following the shooting.
“This news marks a turning point in American policy norms,” he said. “For markets, it means safe-haven trades, but more tilted toward non-traditional safe-havens.”
News
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Jio Financial share price: Should you buy this Reliance group stock on Monday ahead of Q1 FY2024 results?
Q1 2024 Results: Jio Financial Share Price will be in focus on Monday as the Reliance Group company has a fixed board meeting on July 15, 2024 to consider and approve the company’s unaudited standalone and consolidated financial results. Trust Group company informed about the Q1 2024 Results date on Wednesday last week via an exchange filing. According to stock market experts, Jio Financial Services Limited is poised to deliver impressive Q1 results for FY25 on solid operating income. They have forecast a healthy QoQ PAT for the company in Q1 FY25.
Jio Financial Services News
Speaking on the Jio Financial Services Q1 2024 results, Manish Chowdhury, Head of Research, StoxBox, said, “We believe Jio Financial Services is poised to deliver impressive results in Q1FY25 aided by its operating income, which is likely to show robust growth driven by strong investment income, which in turn should lead to healthy PAT growth on a sequential basis. Jio Financial Services continues to make strategic moves such as launching digital products and expanding its ecosystem, with a clear focus on future growth. The company has announced plans to introduce products for lending against stocks and mutual funds, leveraging Jio’s large user base, which could be a significant growth driver in the coming quarters.”
“Furthermore, with the NBFC receiving RBI approval to become a primary investment company, Jio Financial Services is well-positioned to unlock value from its investments. Overall, we expect the company to report robust numbers in the upcoming quarter,” the StoxBox expert added.
Jio Financial Stock Target Price
Speaking about the technical outlook of Jio Financial share price, Ganesh Dongre, Senior Manager, Technical Research at Anand Rathi, said, “Jio Financial Services share price is poised to make a fresh high at the ₹260 apiece level. If the stock breaks above this mark, the Reliance Group stock could make a fresh high by touching the ₹290-₹295 zone. Hence, those with Jio Finance stock in their portfolio are advised to stick to the script by keeping a stop loss at ₹205. If the stock breaks above ₹260 decisively, then one can upgrade the stop loss at ₹240 for the near-term target of ₹295.”
On the advice to new buyers regarding Jio Financial stock, Ganesh Dongre said, “New buyers are advised to wait for the breakout. Once the stock breaks above â‚ą260, one can buy this Reliance Group stock at the short term target of â‚ą295, keeping a stop loss of â‚ą240 apiece.”
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or brokerage firms, and not of Mint. Investors are advised to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
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