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U.S. employers added 206,000 jobs in June
WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. employers delivered another healthy month of hiring in June, adding 206,000 jobs and once again demonstrating the U.S. economy’s ability to withstand high interest rates.
Last month’s job growth marked a decline of 218,000 in May. But it was still a solid gain, reflecting the resilience of the consumer-driven U.S. economy, which is slowing but still growing steadily.
Still, Friday’s Labor Department report contained several signs of a slowing labor market. The unemployment rate rose to 4.1% from 4%, still low but the highest rate since November 2021. The rate rose largely because 277,000 people started looking for work in June, and not all of them found jobs right away.
The government also sharply revised down its job growth estimate for April and May by a combined 111,000. And it said average hourly earnings rose just 0.3% from May and 3.9% from June 2023. The year-over-year figure was the smallest such increase since June 2021 and will likely be welcomed by the Federal Reserve in its drive to fully conquer inflation. Most economists think the Fed will start cutting its benchmark rate in September, and the details in Friday’s jobs report did nothing to counter that expectation.
Just two sectors — government and a category that includes health care and social assistance, neither of which captures the underlying strength of the economy — accounted for roughly three-quarters of June’s job growth. Economists also noted that job growth from April to June averaged 177,000, a decent number but still the lowest three-month average since January 2021.
Other economists, while agreeing that the labor market is slowing, suggested it remains resilient.
“Hiring in May and June was above 200,000 even after revisions, and the trajectory appears stable,” said Eric Winograd, U.S. economist at AllianceBernstein. “The best available evidence is that the labor market remains strong and that any slowdown remains modest.”
The state of the economy is weighing heavily on voters’ minds as the presidential campaign heats up. Despite steady hiring, relatively few layoffs and gradually easing inflation, many Americans have grown exasperated with still-high prices and are blaming President Joe Biden.
Economists have repeatedly predicted that the labor market would weaken in the face of the Fed’s projected high rates, only to see hiring gains show continued strength. Still, signs of an economic slowdown have emerged following the Fed’s series of rate hikes. U.S. gross domestic product—the total output of goods and services—grew at a lethargic annual pace of 1.4% from January to March, the slowest quarterly pace in nearly two years.
Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of all U.S. economic activity and has driven expansion over the past three years, rose at a rate of just 1.5% last quarter after growing more than 3% in each of the previous two quarters. In addition, the number of job vacancies advertised has been steadily declining since reaching a record peak of 12.2 million in March 2022.
At the same time, while employers may not be hiring as aggressively after struggling to fill positions over the past two years, they’re not cutting many jobs either. Most workers are enjoying an unusual level of job security.
Hal Lawton, CEO of Tractor Supply, a retail chain that serves customers in rural areas, said his company still feels pressure to raise wages. The average hourly pay at Tractor Supply, based in Brentwood, Tennessee, exceeds $16 for workers. And with rent and food prices high, workers are still seeking pay raises.
“You have a tight labor market, and frontline workers are feeling the pinch of their budgets,” Lawton said. “They’re still out there looking for those pay raises.”
During 2022 and 2023, the Fed increased its base interest rate 11 times to try to beat the worst wave of inflation in four decades by raising its benchmark rate to its highest point in 23 years. The resulting punitively higher lending rates for consumers and businesses were widely expected to trigger a recession. They didn’t. The economy and the labor market have instead shown surprising resilience.
However, inflation has been decreasing steadily, a peak of 9.1% in 2022 to 3.3%. Speaking this week at a conference in Portugal, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted that price increases in the United States were slowing again after higher readings earlier this year. Powell warned that more evidence that inflation is moving toward the Fed’s 2% target level would be needed before policymakers cut rates.
“This is the kind of report the Federal Reserve wants to see,” said Gus Faucher, chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group. “It looks pretty good. The labor market is not as strong as it was last year at this time. But the labor market at that time was unsustainably strong.”
Chris Thomas, an engineering manager in Christiansburg, Virginia, said he can see firsthand that the job market has lost steam. When Thomas started his job search earlier in 2021, when tech startups were desperate to hire, he got interviews with about a third of the companies he applied to. It took him just a month to find a job.
But after he was laid off in April from a job at a startup, it became clear that the landscape had changed. First, he sought out leads through his network of friends and business associates. No luck. Then he sent out hundreds of resumes for positions he thought he was qualified to fill. He got few responses.
Finally, after a search of almost three months, Thomas landed a job in late June.
“This is a very, very different job market than we had three years ago,” he said.
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AP Retail Writer Anne D’Innocenzio in New York and AP Economics Writer Christopher Rugaber in Washington contributed to this report.
The spotlight next week will shift somewhat to the Federal Reserve’s second-quarter earnings season and monetary policy. Market watchers will be treated to results from several major names, including Dow 30 components Goldman Sachs (GS), UnitedHealth (UNH), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and American Express (AXP), along with streaming giant Netflix (NFLX).
The Fed will still attract some attention as investors will be eager to hear from a packed lineup of central bank speakers just before the policy meeting lockout period.
In terms of the economic calendar, after fifteen days of labor market and inflation indicators, activity data will gain momentum in the form of the latest retail sales and industrial production reports.
Earnings Highlight: Monday, July 15 – Goldman Sachs (GS) and BlackRock (Black). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Tuesday, July 16 – UnitedHealth (UNH), Bank of America (BAC), Progressive (PGR), Morgan Stanley (IN), PNC Financial (PNC) and JB Hunt Transport (JBHT). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Wednesday, July 17 – Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), US Bancorp (USB), Morgan Children (KMI), United Airlines (UAL) and Ally Financial (ALLY). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Thursday, July 18 – Netflix (NFLX), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Black stone (BX), Domino’s pizza (ZDP) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Friday, July 19 – American Express (AXP), Halliburton (THANKS) and Travelers (VRT (return to recoverable value)) See the full earnings calendar.
IPO Observation: Hospital and healthcare clinic operator Ardent Health Partners (TARDT), insurance service provider Twfg (TWFG) and the biotechnology company Lirum Therapeutics (LRTX) are expected to price their IPOs and begin trading next week. The analyst quiet period ends at Rectitude (RECT) to free up analysts to publish ratings.
Police cars outside the residence of Thomas Matthew Crooks, the suspected shooter at a Trump rally on Saturday, investigate the area in Pennsylvania. Following the incident, one rally attendee was killed, two rally attendees are in critical condition and Donald Trump suffered a non-fatal gunshot wound. The shooter is dead after being shot dead by the United States Secret Service. (Photo by Kyle Mazza/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Investors will initially favor traditional safe-haven assets and may lean toward trades more closely tied to former President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the White House after he survived an assassination attempt, according to market watchers.
“There will undoubtedly be some protectionist or safe-haven flows into Asia early this morning,” said Nick Twidale, chief market analyst at ATFX Global Markets. “I suspect gold could test all-time highs, we’ll see the yen being bought and the dollar, and flows into Treasuries as well.”
Early market commentary suggested Trump’s shooting at a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday could also prompt traders to increase his likelihood of success in the November election. His support for looser fiscal policy and higher tariffs is generally seen as likely to benefit the dollar and weaken Treasuries.
An indicator of market sentiment heading into the weekend: Bitcoin surged above $60,000, likely reflecting Trump’s pro-crypto stance.
Other assets positively linked to the so-called Trump trade include stocks of energy companies, private prisons, credit card companies and health insurers.
Traders will also be closely watching market measures of expected volatility on Monday, such as those in the tariff-sensitive Chinese yuan and Mexican peso, which have begun to price in the U.S. vote.
Trump said he was shot in the right ear after a shooting at his rally. His campaign said in a statement that he was “fine” after the incident, which prompted him to rush off the stage.
“Currencies will be the first major market on Monday in Asia to react to the weekend’s shots. There’s potential for extra volatility, and getting a clear reading could be especially difficult because liquidity will be hurt by Japan’s national holiday,” said Garfield Reynolds, Asia team leader for Bloomberg Markets Live.
Strategists had already expected a volatile run-up to the election, particularly as Democrats are still agonizing over President Joe Biden’s candidacy after his poor performance in last month’s debate raised questions about his age. Investors were also grappling with the possibility that the election could end in a drawn-out dispute or political violence.
But there is little precedent for events like those in Pennsylvania. When President Ronald Reagan was shot four decades ago, the stock market plunged before closing early. The next day, March 31, 1981, the S&P 500 rose more than 1% and benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell 9 basis points to 13.13%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Bond investors should pay particular attention as the attack is likely to boost Trump’s election chances and ultimately lead to concerns about the fiscal outlook, according to Marko Papic, chief strategist at California-based BCA Research Inc.
“The bond market must at some point become aware of President Trump’s greater chances of winning the White House than any of his rivals,” Papic wrote. “And I continue to believe that as his chances increase, so too must the likelihood of a bond market revolt.”
Kyle Rodda, senior financial markets analyst at Capital.com, said he was seeing client flows into Bitcoin and gold following the shooting.
“This news marks a turning point in American policy norms,” he said. “For markets, it means safe-haven trades, but more tilted toward non-traditional safe-havens.”
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Jio Financial share price: Should you buy this Reliance group stock on Monday ahead of Q1 FY2024 results?
Q1 2024 Results: Jio Financial Share Price will be in focus on Monday as the Reliance Group company has a fixed board meeting on July 15, 2024 to consider and approve the company’s unaudited standalone and consolidated financial results. Trust Group company informed about the Q1 2024 Results date on Wednesday last week via an exchange filing. According to stock market experts, Jio Financial Services Limited is poised to deliver impressive Q1 results for FY25 on solid operating income. They have forecast a healthy QoQ PAT for the company in Q1 FY25.
Jio Financial Services News
Speaking on the Jio Financial Services Q1 2024 results, Manish Chowdhury, Head of Research, StoxBox, said, “We believe Jio Financial Services is poised to deliver impressive results in Q1FY25 aided by its operating income, which is likely to show robust growth driven by strong investment income, which in turn should lead to healthy PAT growth on a sequential basis. Jio Financial Services continues to make strategic moves such as launching digital products and expanding its ecosystem, with a clear focus on future growth. The company has announced plans to introduce products for lending against stocks and mutual funds, leveraging Jio’s large user base, which could be a significant growth driver in the coming quarters.”
“Furthermore, with the NBFC receiving RBI approval to become a primary investment company, Jio Financial Services is well-positioned to unlock value from its investments. Overall, we expect the company to report robust numbers in the upcoming quarter,” the StoxBox expert added.
Jio Financial Stock Target Price
Speaking about the technical outlook of Jio Financial share price, Ganesh Dongre, Senior Manager, Technical Research at Anand Rathi, said, “Jio Financial Services share price is poised to make a fresh high at the ₹260 apiece level. If the stock breaks above this mark, the Reliance Group stock could make a fresh high by touching the ₹290-₹295 zone. Hence, those with Jio Finance stock in their portfolio are advised to stick to the script by keeping a stop loss at ₹205. If the stock breaks above ₹260 decisively, then one can upgrade the stop loss at ₹240 for the near-term target of ₹295.”
On the advice to new buyers regarding Jio Financial stock, Ganesh Dongre said, “New buyers are advised to wait for the breakout. Once the stock breaks above ₹260, one can buy this Reliance Group stock at the short term target of ₹295, keeping a stop loss of ₹240 apiece.”
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or brokerage firms, and not of Mint. Investors are advised to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
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