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Trump erases Biden’s lead in 2024 elections after conviction
Former President Donald J. Trump surpassed President Biden for the second month in a row in May, outpacing his successor by about $81 million in donations over the past two months as he rode a wave of financial support following his felony conviction.
Less than two months after Biden’s shared operation with the Democratic National Committee had a monetary advantage of around $100 million over Trump and the Republican National Committee, the situation is now reversed, according to the two campaigns.
Biden entered June with a combined $212 million in hand with the party. The Trump operation and the RNC got $235 million, the campaign said.
Trump’s joint operation surpassed Biden’s by $141 million to $85 million in May, after raising $25 million more than Biden’s team in April.
Trump’s main campaign committee also had more money than Biden’s: $116.5 million to $91.6 million, according to Federal Election Commission records.
The full accounting of both sides’ finances will be made public in federal filings next month. But the combination of Trump’s improved fundraising and Biden’s heavier spending on advertising this spring appears to put both sides on track to enter the summer relatively close to financial parity.
“Yes, Trump is raising a lot more money now, and that should scare people,” said Brian Derrick, a strategist who founded a Democratic fundraising platform called Oath. “But at the end of the day, Biden has the funds necessary to run a really strong campaign.”
Trump narrowed the gap by bringing a deluge of donations online following his felony conviction in New York on May 30. In the minutes after the verdict, guilty on 34 criminal charges, contributions arrived so quickly that they arrived briefly overwhelmed the Republican Party’s online donation portal, WinRed.
The Trump campaign said this raised US$53 million online in the first 24 hours and $70 million in the first 48 hours after the verdict. The conviction also triggered a torrent of mega-actions, including a $50 million contribution from reclusive billionaire Timothy Mellon to a pro-Trump super PAC the day after the verdict.
Late in the Republican primary race, Biden’s campaign and its allies argued that for all of the president’s electoral vulnerabilities — persistent inflation, low approval ratings, lingering concerns about his age — a clear advantage would be money.
Even though that advantage has since evaporated, Biden’s campaign says it has used its early financial lead to build a political infrastructure in swing states that will pay dividends in November. On Thursday, the campaign announced it had hired its 1,000th employee for 200 offices in those states.
“What’s in his FEC report doesn’t translate into action on the ground tomorrow,” Dan Kanninen, Biden’s swing states director, said in an interview. “This has been built over time and Donald Trump cannot recover.”
Steven Cheung, Trump’s communications director, said Biden wasted money on ineffective television advertising.
“President Trump’s record fundraising numbers prove that corrupt Joe Biden’s witch hunt against President Trump, skyrocketing inflation, and illegal border crossings have united the American people around the fact that four more years of Biden will mean the end of our country,” Mr. Cheung said.
Money alone is rarely decisive in major races, such as the presidency, because voters are already well informed about the candidates. But some of this year’s most important voters appear to be those who left – and getting to them can cost a lot of money.
For months, Trump and his allies simply didn’t have the money to reach these voters. While his path to the Republican nomination was not blunt, he emerged from the primary race in relatively poor financial shape compared to Biden’s operation, which had been hoarding cash for nearly a year.
Biden consolidated his party’s biggest donors. Trump didn’t do it on his end.
But this slow start also gave Trump much more room to grow. In the weeks after he dispatched Nikki Haley, his last Republican rival, Trump’s packers described an almost stealthy effort to get back into his good graces.
A fundraising dinner at Trump’s Florida estate, Mar-a-Lago, in mid-February, a few weeks before Haley’s departure, served as a major turning point as Trump fundraisers signaled hesitant donors that the moment for indecision was coming to an end. A fundraising dinner hosted by John Paulson, a hedge fund billionaire, raised $50 million, the campaign said. And just in the last month, the wealthy resisters as Blackstone co-founder Stephen A. Schwarzman have signaled they plan to support Trump.
Completing the nomination also allowed Trump to form a joint fundraising committee with the national and state Republican parties, a seemingly technical step that meant he could suddenly raise hundreds of thousands of dollars more from each donor. Biden had been raising money in larger installments for many months.
Online contributions will be increasingly crucial in the future because campaigns cannot turn to their biggest donors for repeat contributions. And Trump’s base appears to have been highly animated by his conviction. His campaign said a quarter of taxpayers in May were new.
The question for Trump is how many of these people become repeat collaborators. The Biden campaign has aggressively cultivated repeat contributors online, a group that accounted for $5.5 million in April and more than that in May, although the campaign did not provide a specific number.
So far, Biden has enjoyed a tremendous publicity advantage over Trump.
From the beginning of the year through this month, Biden’s operation transmitted or booked about $35.4 million in the six key battleground states. Trump’s operation broadcast virtually nothing in those states, about $60,000 worth of ads, according to records from AdImpact, a media monitoring company.
Trump advisers say the fact that Biden has spent tens of millions of dollars in key states without altering the trajectory of the race bodes ill for the president’s chances in November.
Biden fundraisers insist they will maintain an advantage when outside groups are counted. The constellation of pro-Biden super PACs and nonprofit groups outspent Trump allies by about 50% in the six most contested battlegrounds, according to data from AdImpact.
Still, Biden’s dominance of the airwaves is not likely to continue.
Trump’s main super PAC, Make America Great Again Inc., and its nonprofit arm, which can keep its donors secret, paid nearly $17 million in the first half of the year for ads in Pennsylvania, the only battleground where it made a significant impact. investment.
But this week, MAGA Inc. began booking nearly $30 million in airtime starting in early July in Pennsylvania and Georgia as part of what it said will be a $100 million summer advertising campaign. Other pro-Trump super PACs are also beginning to plan advertising efforts.
Democratic fundraisers for Biden said they expected Trump to eventually catch up with them and received such guidance explicitly from Rufus Gifford, the campaign’s top fundraising official, in recent briefings. A Biden funder compared the 2024 race to the summer of 2012, when Mitt Romney steadily chipped away at President Barack Obama’s fundraising lead.
Other Democratic allies were more surprised by the recent turn of events, speculating that the lasting political impact of Trump’s conviction will not be on voters but rather on donors.
“It’s desperate to see the money rush stabilize,” said Jon Reinish, a Democratic political strategist. “That should be one of Biden’s real advantages. He’s also been spending money for months and that doesn’t seem to be changing the situation much in terms of research. We hope this changes as we get even closer.”
For now, Biden is racing to replenish his coffers in June. He held a $30 million event in Los Angeles with Obama and Hollywood stars, as well as an $8 million fundraiser on Tuesday at the home of Terry McAuliffe, the former governor of Virginia, with ex -President Bill Clinton among those present. .
Others hope Biden surrogates can help raise money.
On the day of the first general election debate next week, three prominent Democratic governors — Andy Beshear of Kentucky, JB Pritzker of Illinois and Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan — will be in Los Angeles for a fundraiser.
At the same time, a wide range of Republican vice presidential candidates will headline a debate-watching party in Atlanta that will also serve as a fundraiser.
The spotlight next week will shift somewhat to the Federal Reserve’s second-quarter earnings season and monetary policy. Market watchers will be treated to results from several major names, including Dow 30 components Goldman Sachs (GS), UnitedHealth (UNH), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and American Express (AXP), along with streaming giant Netflix (NFLX).
The Fed will still attract some attention as investors will be eager to hear from a packed lineup of central bank speakers just before the policy meeting lockout period.
In terms of the economic calendar, after fifteen days of labor market and inflation indicators, activity data will gain momentum in the form of the latest retail sales and industrial production reports.
Earnings Highlight: Monday, July 15 – Goldman Sachs (GS) and BlackRock (Black). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Tuesday, July 16 – UnitedHealth (UNH), Bank of America (BAC), Progressive (PGR), Morgan Stanley (IN), PNC Financial (PNC) and JB Hunt Transport (JBHT). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Wednesday, July 17 – Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), US Bancorp (USB), Morgan Children (KMI), United Airlines (UAL) and Ally Financial (ALLY). See the full earnings calendar.
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Earnings Highlight: Friday, July 19 – American Express (AXP), Halliburton (THANKS) and Travelers (VRT (return to recoverable value)) See the full earnings calendar.
IPO Observation: Hospital and healthcare clinic operator Ardent Health Partners (TARDT), insurance service provider Twfg (TWFG) and the biotechnology company Lirum Therapeutics (LRTX) are expected to price their IPOs and begin trading next week. The analyst quiet period ends at Rectitude (RECT) to free up analysts to publish ratings.
Police cars outside the residence of Thomas Matthew Crooks, the suspected shooter at a Trump rally on Saturday, investigate the area in Pennsylvania. Following the incident, one rally attendee was killed, two rally attendees are in critical condition and Donald Trump suffered a non-fatal gunshot wound. The shooter is dead after being shot dead by the United States Secret Service. (Photo by Kyle Mazza/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Investors will initially favor traditional safe-haven assets and may lean toward trades more closely tied to former President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the White House after he survived an assassination attempt, according to market watchers.
“There will undoubtedly be some protectionist or safe-haven flows into Asia early this morning,” said Nick Twidale, chief market analyst at ATFX Global Markets. “I suspect gold could test all-time highs, we’ll see the yen being bought and the dollar, and flows into Treasuries as well.”
Early market commentary suggested Trump’s shooting at a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday could also prompt traders to increase his likelihood of success in the November election. His support for looser fiscal policy and higher tariffs is generally seen as likely to benefit the dollar and weaken Treasuries.
An indicator of market sentiment heading into the weekend: Bitcoin surged above $60,000, likely reflecting Trump’s pro-crypto stance.
Other assets positively linked to the so-called Trump trade include stocks of energy companies, private prisons, credit card companies and health insurers.
Traders will also be closely watching market measures of expected volatility on Monday, such as those in the tariff-sensitive Chinese yuan and Mexican peso, which have begun to price in the U.S. vote.
Trump said he was shot in the right ear after a shooting at his rally. His campaign said in a statement that he was “fine” after the incident, which prompted him to rush off the stage.
“Currencies will be the first major market on Monday in Asia to react to the weekend’s shots. There’s potential for extra volatility, and getting a clear reading could be especially difficult because liquidity will be hurt by Japan’s national holiday,” said Garfield Reynolds, Asia team leader for Bloomberg Markets Live.
Strategists had already expected a volatile run-up to the election, particularly as Democrats are still agonizing over President Joe Biden’s candidacy after his poor performance in last month’s debate raised questions about his age. Investors were also grappling with the possibility that the election could end in a drawn-out dispute or political violence.
But there is little precedent for events like those in Pennsylvania. When President Ronald Reagan was shot four decades ago, the stock market plunged before closing early. The next day, March 31, 1981, the S&P 500 rose more than 1% and benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell 9 basis points to 13.13%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Bond investors should pay particular attention as the attack is likely to boost Trump’s election chances and ultimately lead to concerns about the fiscal outlook, according to Marko Papic, chief strategist at California-based BCA Research Inc.
“The bond market must at some point become aware of President Trump’s greater chances of winning the White House than any of his rivals,” Papic wrote. “And I continue to believe that as his chances increase, so too must the likelihood of a bond market revolt.”
Kyle Rodda, senior financial markets analyst at Capital.com, said he was seeing client flows into Bitcoin and gold following the shooting.
“This news marks a turning point in American policy norms,” he said. “For markets, it means safe-haven trades, but more tilted toward non-traditional safe-havens.”
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Jio Financial share price: Should you buy this Reliance group stock on Monday ahead of Q1 FY2024 results?
Q1 2024 Results: Jio Financial Share Price will be in focus on Monday as the Reliance Group company has a fixed board meeting on July 15, 2024 to consider and approve the company’s unaudited standalone and consolidated financial results. Trust Group company informed about the Q1 2024 Results date on Wednesday last week via an exchange filing. According to stock market experts, Jio Financial Services Limited is poised to deliver impressive Q1 results for FY25 on solid operating income. They have forecast a healthy QoQ PAT for the company in Q1 FY25.
Jio Financial Services News
Speaking on the Jio Financial Services Q1 2024 results, Manish Chowdhury, Head of Research, StoxBox, said, “We believe Jio Financial Services is poised to deliver impressive results in Q1FY25 aided by its operating income, which is likely to show robust growth driven by strong investment income, which in turn should lead to healthy PAT growth on a sequential basis. Jio Financial Services continues to make strategic moves such as launching digital products and expanding its ecosystem, with a clear focus on future growth. The company has announced plans to introduce products for lending against stocks and mutual funds, leveraging Jio’s large user base, which could be a significant growth driver in the coming quarters.”
“Furthermore, with the NBFC receiving RBI approval to become a primary investment company, Jio Financial Services is well-positioned to unlock value from its investments. Overall, we expect the company to report robust numbers in the upcoming quarter,” the StoxBox expert added.
Jio Financial Stock Target Price
Speaking about the technical outlook of Jio Financial share price, Ganesh Dongre, Senior Manager, Technical Research at Anand Rathi, said, “Jio Financial Services share price is poised to make a fresh high at the ₹260 apiece level. If the stock breaks above this mark, the Reliance Group stock could make a fresh high by touching the ₹290-₹295 zone. Hence, those with Jio Finance stock in their portfolio are advised to stick to the script by keeping a stop loss at ₹205. If the stock breaks above ₹260 decisively, then one can upgrade the stop loss at ₹240 for the near-term target of ₹295.”
On the advice to new buyers regarding Jio Financial stock, Ganesh Dongre said, “New buyers are advised to wait for the breakout. Once the stock breaks above ₹260, one can buy this Reliance Group stock at the short term target of ₹295, keeping a stop loss of ₹240 apiece.”
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or brokerage firms, and not of Mint. Investors are advised to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
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