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This week in Bidenomics: Kamalanomics?
If President Joe Biden steps down as this year’s Democratic presidential nominee, he will be giving an economic gift to his successor.
Biden’s economy has been great, except for one thing everyone knows about: inflation. Many Americans blame Biden for inflation, especially his Republican critics, who call it “aBidenflation.”
That’s unfair, given that inflation, which peaked at 9% in 2022, was largely driven by COVID-related distortions and tight energy markets. Biden fanned the flames a bit by signing a $2 trillion stimulus bill into law in 2021. But his predecessor, Donald Trump, signed $4 trillion of stimulus into law before him. It was the entire stimulus spurt that contributed to inflation, not just Biden’s share.
Inflation is nearly back to normal levels, and a Biden replacement would have much less to explain about the high cost of food, gasoline and rent. Biden’s departure could even turn the economy into a net winner for Democrats.
Read more: Is the inflation fever ending? Price increases in everyday expenses are finally slowing down.
Pressure on Biden, 81, to bow out appears to be intensifying rather than abating as the damage from his disastrous June 27 debate performance becomes clear. Polls show Biden losing ground to his Republican opponentTrump, with three-quarters of voters now say Biden is too old for office. Some wealthy Democratic donors are asking Biden to step down. His campaign stops are focused on damage control and demonstrating his vigor, rather than taking down a nearly as old Trump.
On a June 5 interview with ABC NewsBiden said he had only had a “bad night” during the debate, mostly because of a bad cold. He insisted he has the stamina and acuity for four more years in the White House. But the pressure to step down, if anything, it’s growing upand some Biden critics say the president is in denial about his weak public standing and the dwindling chances of defeating Trump.
The political parlor game is suddenly conjuring up a dream ticket of Democrats who could replace Biden. But Vice President Kamala Harris is the favorite by miles, given that she is already just one step away from the job. Her name is part of the Biden-Harris campaign, and she is better known nationally than any other plausible replacement.
Vice President Kamala Harris waves as she leaves after speaking at the Tribal Nations Summit in the South Court Auditorium on the White House campus, Nov. 16, 2021, in Washington. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky, File) (ASSOCIATED PRESS)
Would voters associate Harris with inflation the way they associate her with Biden? Perhaps not. The vice presidency is a notoriously empty job that brings national fame but few responsibilities. “I am nothing,” he said John Adams, the first vice president. “But I can be anything.”
The story continues
For Harris, being Biden’s surrogate could mean a fresh start to define herself and convince voters that a new face means the era of inflation is over.
The numbers say it’s over. Inflation is now at a manageable 3.3%, while rents are rising at 3.9%, allowing workers to come out ahead. The only real inflation left is in rent and insurance. Rent inflation will likely improve because new leases are coming down from the peaks of 2022on average. Auto and home insurance inflation is an outlier, with premiums rising as insurers slowly recover from the cost increases of recent years. They, too, should stabilize eventually.
Angry shoppers correctly point out that many prices have risen and stayed high, even if the current rate of increase is small. But Harris can give voters a hint: “It’s not my fault. It was the other guy.” She would have to get the message right, but the change at the top — out with the old, in with the new — would be a chance for Democrats to reset their shaky record on inflation.
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The rest of the economy is approaching Goldilocks status. The latest jobs numbers reflect a healthy economy moving forward, with employers create solid 206,000 jobs in June. Income growth is moderate — not too hot, not too cold — which has revived hopes for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts by the fall. Other data suggest inflation is finally under control, with investors now looking to consumer price figures on July 11 to confirm the trend.
When the Fed starts cutting rates, it will be in very small increments that won’t provide an immediate benefit to borrowers. But it will signal that rates have peaked and are headed lower, making potential home and car buyers a bit more optimistic.
Read more: What the Fed Rate Decision Means for Bank Accounts, CDs, Loans, and Credit Cards
The stock market, meanwhile, is already at record highs, and the Fed’s rate cut could be a tailwind pushing stocks even higher. Normally, these would be extremely bullish signs for the party in power that is holding the White House.
Besides his age, Biden has two glaring weaknesses with voters: the economy and immigration. Biden gets poor marks on the economy largely because of inflation, and that’s mostly in the past. If Biden is also in the past, his replacement could get credit for what’s going well without the blame for what’s gone wrong. A little more trust in Democrats on the economy could offset some of the party’s weakness on immigration.
If Kamala Harris is indeed the next Democratic presidential candidate, she will still have to prove herself to voters, who will likely remember that she ran lackluster and disorganized presidential campaign against Biden and other Democrats in 2020. But she could start with some momentum thanks to the Biden economy she would inherit.
Rick Newman is a senior columnist for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on Twitter at @rickjnewman.
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The spotlight next week will shift somewhat to the Federal Reserve’s second-quarter earnings season and monetary policy. Market watchers will be treated to results from several major names, including Dow 30 components Goldman Sachs (GS), UnitedHealth (UNH), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and American Express (AXP), along with streaming giant Netflix (NFLX).
The Fed will still attract some attention as investors will be eager to hear from a packed lineup of central bank speakers just before the policy meeting lockout period.
In terms of the economic calendar, after fifteen days of labor market and inflation indicators, activity data will gain momentum in the form of the latest retail sales and industrial production reports.
Earnings Highlight: Monday, July 15 – Goldman Sachs (GS) and BlackRock (Black). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Tuesday, July 16 – UnitedHealth (UNH), Bank of America (BAC), Progressive (PGR), Morgan Stanley (IN), PNC Financial (PNC) and JB Hunt Transport (JBHT). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Wednesday, July 17 – Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), US Bancorp (USB), Morgan Children (KMI), United Airlines (UAL) and Ally Financial (ALLY). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Thursday, July 18 – Netflix (NFLX), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Black stone (BX), Domino’s pizza (ZDP) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Friday, July 19 – American Express (AXP), Halliburton (THANKS) and Travelers (VRT (return to recoverable value)) See the full earnings calendar.
IPO Observation: Hospital and healthcare clinic operator Ardent Health Partners (TARDT), insurance service provider Twfg (TWFG) and the biotechnology company Lirum Therapeutics (LRTX) are expected to price their IPOs and begin trading next week. The analyst quiet period ends at Rectitude (RECT) to free up analysts to publish ratings.
Police cars outside the residence of Thomas Matthew Crooks, the suspected shooter at a Trump rally on Saturday, investigate the area in Pennsylvania. Following the incident, one rally attendee was killed, two rally attendees are in critical condition and Donald Trump suffered a non-fatal gunshot wound. The shooter is dead after being shot dead by the United States Secret Service. (Photo by Kyle Mazza/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Investors will initially favor traditional safe-haven assets and may lean toward trades more closely tied to former President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the White House after he survived an assassination attempt, according to market watchers.
“There will undoubtedly be some protectionist or safe-haven flows into Asia early this morning,” said Nick Twidale, chief market analyst at ATFX Global Markets. “I suspect gold could test all-time highs, we’ll see the yen being bought and the dollar, and flows into Treasuries as well.”
Early market commentary suggested Trump’s shooting at a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday could also prompt traders to increase his likelihood of success in the November election. His support for looser fiscal policy and higher tariffs is generally seen as likely to benefit the dollar and weaken Treasuries.
An indicator of market sentiment heading into the weekend: Bitcoin surged above $60,000, likely reflecting Trump’s pro-crypto stance.
Other assets positively linked to the so-called Trump trade include stocks of energy companies, private prisons, credit card companies and health insurers.
Traders will also be closely watching market measures of expected volatility on Monday, such as those in the tariff-sensitive Chinese yuan and Mexican peso, which have begun to price in the U.S. vote.
Trump said he was shot in the right ear after a shooting at his rally. His campaign said in a statement that he was “fine” after the incident, which prompted him to rush off the stage.
“Currencies will be the first major market on Monday in Asia to react to the weekend’s shots. There’s potential for extra volatility, and getting a clear reading could be especially difficult because liquidity will be hurt by Japan’s national holiday,” said Garfield Reynolds, Asia team leader for Bloomberg Markets Live.
Strategists had already expected a volatile run-up to the election, particularly as Democrats are still agonizing over President Joe Biden’s candidacy after his poor performance in last month’s debate raised questions about his age. Investors were also grappling with the possibility that the election could end in a drawn-out dispute or political violence.
But there is little precedent for events like those in Pennsylvania. When President Ronald Reagan was shot four decades ago, the stock market plunged before closing early. The next day, March 31, 1981, the S&P 500 rose more than 1% and benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell 9 basis points to 13.13%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Bond investors should pay particular attention as the attack is likely to boost Trump’s election chances and ultimately lead to concerns about the fiscal outlook, according to Marko Papic, chief strategist at California-based BCA Research Inc.
“The bond market must at some point become aware of President Trump’s greater chances of winning the White House than any of his rivals,” Papic wrote. “And I continue to believe that as his chances increase, so too must the likelihood of a bond market revolt.”
Kyle Rodda, senior financial markets analyst at Capital.com, said he was seeing client flows into Bitcoin and gold following the shooting.
“This news marks a turning point in American policy norms,” he said. “For markets, it means safe-haven trades, but more tilted toward non-traditional safe-havens.”
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Jio Financial share price: Should you buy this Reliance group stock on Monday ahead of Q1 FY2024 results?
Q1 2024 Results: Jio Financial Share Price will be in focus on Monday as the Reliance Group company has a fixed board meeting on July 15, 2024 to consider and approve the company’s unaudited standalone and consolidated financial results. Trust Group company informed about the Q1 2024 Results date on Wednesday last week via an exchange filing. According to stock market experts, Jio Financial Services Limited is poised to deliver impressive Q1 results for FY25 on solid operating income. They have forecast a healthy QoQ PAT for the company in Q1 FY25.
Jio Financial Services News
Speaking on the Jio Financial Services Q1 2024 results, Manish Chowdhury, Head of Research, StoxBox, said, “We believe Jio Financial Services is poised to deliver impressive results in Q1FY25 aided by its operating income, which is likely to show robust growth driven by strong investment income, which in turn should lead to healthy PAT growth on a sequential basis. Jio Financial Services continues to make strategic moves such as launching digital products and expanding its ecosystem, with a clear focus on future growth. The company has announced plans to introduce products for lending against stocks and mutual funds, leveraging Jio’s large user base, which could be a significant growth driver in the coming quarters.”
“Furthermore, with the NBFC receiving RBI approval to become a primary investment company, Jio Financial Services is well-positioned to unlock value from its investments. Overall, we expect the company to report robust numbers in the upcoming quarter,” the StoxBox expert added.
Jio Financial Stock Target Price
Speaking about the technical outlook of Jio Financial share price, Ganesh Dongre, Senior Manager, Technical Research at Anand Rathi, said, “Jio Financial Services share price is poised to make a fresh high at the ₹260 apiece level. If the stock breaks above this mark, the Reliance Group stock could make a fresh high by touching the ₹290-₹295 zone. Hence, those with Jio Finance stock in their portfolio are advised to stick to the script by keeping a stop loss at ₹205. If the stock breaks above ₹260 decisively, then one can upgrade the stop loss at ₹240 for the near-term target of ₹295.”
On the advice to new buyers regarding Jio Financial stock, Ganesh Dongre said, “New buyers are advised to wait for the breakout. Once the stock breaks above ₹260, one can buy this Reliance Group stock at the short term target of ₹295, keeping a stop loss of ₹240 apiece.”
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or brokerage firms, and not of Mint. Investors are advised to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
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