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The One Issue Biden and Trump Are Eager to Talk About During Their First Debate: Taxes
Most of the major issues up for debate Thursday are likely to make President Joe Biden or former President Donald Trump uneasy, but taxes could be an important exception.
Both campaigns appear to consider this a winning issue for them, based on a groundswell of expectations from both sides this week. And both are signaling plans to strike when that happens.
Trump, seeking to exploit many Americans’ antipathy to taxes, will publicize his plans for a wide variety of cuts.
“Who wants to have high taxes?” Trump asked about Biden’s plans in a recent podcast appearancelisting it among Biden’s “worst policies.”
Donald Trump speaks at the Faith and Freedom Road to Majority Conference in Washington on June 22, ahead of this week’s debate. (Andrew Leyden/NurPhoto via Getty Images). (NurPhoto via Getty Images)
Biden is expected to respond by underlining his populist stance on the issue and repeating his promise to raise taxes on large corporations and the 1%.
Trump’s plan is to give “tax cuts to the ultra-rich at the expense of the middle class,” said a pre-debate memo from Michael Tyler, communications director for the Biden campaign.
Both sides are not as eager to address other issues.
See more information: 3 Ways Retirees Can Save on Taxes
Trump’s campaign is making it clear that the former president will return to the issues of inflation and immigration at every opportunity.
Biden, of course, will have an answer — but he may not be willing to stand by and instead try to neutralize these political vulnerabilities and move forward.
The same will likely happen with Trump when the topic turns to issues such as abortion rights and defending democracy. These are Biden’s campaign priorities, but not so much for Trump.
Will this lead to a substantive tax debate?
The broad strokes of the two candidates’ tax positions are well known ahead of a mammoth tax debate scheduled for next year, but experts note there is still much to learn.
This November’s winner will help decide the fate of a series of provisions from the Trump-era tax cuts, which are set to expire at the end of 2025.
Biden has frequently discussed his 2025 plan as focusing on renewing provisions of the 2017 cuts that affect Americans earning less than $400,000 a year, while letting provisions for the wealthy expire.
Biden also released a budget that pushes for an increase in the corporate tax rate to 28%.
Trump’s campaign’s overall message is a promise of a straight extension of the 2017 cuts and perhaps more reductions.
Trump too launched a series of tax ideas during a recent visit to Washington, including cutting the corporate tax rate to 20% from its current level of 21%, as well as a distant idea of ​​scrapping the entire US income tax system in favor of higher tariffs.
The story continues
But for all the noise surrounding the issue, “we haven’t seen a lot of detail about each side’s holistic view of tax policy,” said Garrett Watson, senior political analyst at the Tax Foundation.
He noted that, with a few exceptions, there has so far been a lack of “estimates or details about how this would work.”
See more information: Tax credit vs. tax deduction: What’s the difference and which is better?
President Joe Biden salutes before boarding Air Force One in Delaware on June 20, where he will prepare for the upcoming presidential debate. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh) (ASSOCIATED PRESS)
The unanswered questions are numerous, ranging from the specifics of their positions on certain taxes, such as state and local tax (SALT) deductions, research and development credits, and the earned income tax credit.
And both sides — but Trump in particular — have math problems that could be explored in a debate setting.
Trump’s plan to simply extend expired provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act could add $4 trillion to $5 trillion to deficits over the next decade unless cost savings can be found elsewhere. Trump has not released anything close to a detailed plan on this.
Biden also promised to extend any tax cuts for Americans earning less than $400,000 a year, which the Tax Foundation estimates would cost about $2.5 trillion over the next decade.
Biden could pay for this with his proposed tax increases on the richest Americans and largest corporations, but he has also discussed using that money for other priorities.
Who is a winning question for?
The unique dynamic around taxes is that both sides clearly think they have the higher ground.
Biden raises the issue regularly, as he did recently before a well-heeled audience that gathered to donate to his campaign.
“The trickle-down economic system didn’t really work,” Biden told the audience at a recent fundraising stop in Virginia, adding that “if we just raise the minimum billionaire tax to 25%, we will raise $500 billion over the next 10 years.”
A banner is seen outside the CNN studios before the first presidential debate in Atlanta, Georgia on June 24. (CHRISTIAN MONTERROSA/AFP via Getty Images) (CHRISTIAN MONTERROSA via Getty Images)
Bilal Baydoun, director of policy and research at the left-leaning organization Groundwork Collaborative, said in an interview that the focus on the issue is because “people no longer believe” the arguments in favor of cutting taxes to grow the economy or of trickle-down economics.
But the strength of conviction is equally strong on the other side. Trump brings this up in front of crowds and behind closed doors.
“I cut your taxes,” he said at a recent rally in Wisconsin to applause, quickly adding a false claim that they were the largest tax cuts in U.S. history and promising to make them permanent.
Polls have shown that both campaigns are partly right about how they think about this issue; the success of their message often depends on how it is framed.
A left-wing group called Blueprint 2024 took a deep dive into the issue in April and came to the conclusion that tax cuts represent Trump’s “greatest vulnerability.”
That poll found that Trump’s 2017 tax cuts remain unpopular and that Biden’s message of raising taxes on the wealthy is “a high-performing message” that resonated with both Democratic and moderate supporters.
Media polls on taxes have painted a more nuanced picture.
A CNBC poll from March I found a split in the topicwith Biden enjoying a 35-point lead on the question of “what companies pay in taxes” but Trump enjoying a 32-point lead on “what you pay in taxes.”
Anyway, a Harvard-Harris survey in May found that taxes are gaining traction as an election year issue, rising 5% from April, but still lagging behind key issues like inflation, immigration and the broader economy.
Ben Werschkul is the Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance.
Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance
The spotlight next week will shift somewhat to the Federal Reserve’s second-quarter earnings season and monetary policy. Market watchers will be treated to results from several major names, including Dow 30 components Goldman Sachs (GS), UnitedHealth (UNH), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and American Express (AXP), along with streaming giant Netflix (NFLX).
The Fed will still attract some attention as investors will be eager to hear from a packed lineup of central bank speakers just before the policy meeting lockout period.
In terms of the economic calendar, after fifteen days of labor market and inflation indicators, activity data will gain momentum in the form of the latest retail sales and industrial production reports.
Earnings Highlight: Monday, July 15 – Goldman Sachs (GS) and BlackRock (Black). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Tuesday, July 16 – UnitedHealth (UNH), Bank of America (BAC), Progressive (PGR), Morgan Stanley (IN), PNC Financial (PNC) and JB Hunt Transport (JBHT). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Wednesday, July 17 – Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), US Bancorp (USB), Morgan Children (KMI), United Airlines (UAL) and Ally Financial (ALLY). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Thursday, July 18 – Netflix (NFLX), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Black stone (BX), Domino’s pizza (ZDP) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Friday, July 19 – American Express (AXP), Halliburton (THANKS) and Travelers (VRT (return to recoverable value)) See the full earnings calendar.
IPO Observation: Hospital and healthcare clinic operator Ardent Health Partners (TARDT), insurance service provider Twfg (TWFG) and the biotechnology company Lirum Therapeutics (LRTX) are expected to price their IPOs and begin trading next week. The analyst quiet period ends at Rectitude (RECT) to free up analysts to publish ratings.
Police cars outside the residence of Thomas Matthew Crooks, the suspected shooter at a Trump rally on Saturday, investigate the area in Pennsylvania. Following the incident, one rally attendee was killed, two rally attendees are in critical condition and Donald Trump suffered a non-fatal gunshot wound. The shooter is dead after being shot dead by the United States Secret Service. (Photo by Kyle Mazza/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Investors will initially favor traditional safe-haven assets and may lean toward trades more closely tied to former President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the White House after he survived an assassination attempt, according to market watchers.
“There will undoubtedly be some protectionist or safe-haven flows into Asia early this morning,” said Nick Twidale, chief market analyst at ATFX Global Markets. “I suspect gold could test all-time highs, we’ll see the yen being bought and the dollar, and flows into Treasuries as well.”
Early market commentary suggested Trump’s shooting at a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday could also prompt traders to increase his likelihood of success in the November election. His support for looser fiscal policy and higher tariffs is generally seen as likely to benefit the dollar and weaken Treasuries.
An indicator of market sentiment heading into the weekend: Bitcoin surged above $60,000, likely reflecting Trump’s pro-crypto stance.
Other assets positively linked to the so-called Trump trade include stocks of energy companies, private prisons, credit card companies and health insurers.
Traders will also be closely watching market measures of expected volatility on Monday, such as those in the tariff-sensitive Chinese yuan and Mexican peso, which have begun to price in the U.S. vote.
Trump said he was shot in the right ear after a shooting at his rally. His campaign said in a statement that he was “fine” after the incident, which prompted him to rush off the stage.
“Currencies will be the first major market on Monday in Asia to react to the weekend’s shots. There’s potential for extra volatility, and getting a clear reading could be especially difficult because liquidity will be hurt by Japan’s national holiday,” said Garfield Reynolds, Asia team leader for Bloomberg Markets Live.
Strategists had already expected a volatile run-up to the election, particularly as Democrats are still agonizing over President Joe Biden’s candidacy after his poor performance in last month’s debate raised questions about his age. Investors were also grappling with the possibility that the election could end in a drawn-out dispute or political violence.
But there is little precedent for events like those in Pennsylvania. When President Ronald Reagan was shot four decades ago, the stock market plunged before closing early. The next day, March 31, 1981, the S&P 500 rose more than 1% and benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell 9 basis points to 13.13%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Bond investors should pay particular attention as the attack is likely to boost Trump’s election chances and ultimately lead to concerns about the fiscal outlook, according to Marko Papic, chief strategist at California-based BCA Research Inc.
“The bond market must at some point become aware of President Trump’s greater chances of winning the White House than any of his rivals,” Papic wrote. “And I continue to believe that as his chances increase, so too must the likelihood of a bond market revolt.”
Kyle Rodda, senior financial markets analyst at Capital.com, said he was seeing client flows into Bitcoin and gold following the shooting.
“This news marks a turning point in American policy norms,” he said. “For markets, it means safe-haven trades, but more tilted toward non-traditional safe-havens.”
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Jio Financial share price: Should you buy this Reliance group stock on Monday ahead of Q1 FY2024 results?
Q1 2024 Results: Jio Financial Share Price will be in focus on Monday as the Reliance Group company has a fixed board meeting on July 15, 2024 to consider and approve the company’s unaudited standalone and consolidated financial results. Trust Group company informed about the Q1 2024 Results date on Wednesday last week via an exchange filing. According to stock market experts, Jio Financial Services Limited is poised to deliver impressive Q1 results for FY25 on solid operating income. They have forecast a healthy QoQ PAT for the company in Q1 FY25.
Jio Financial Services News
Speaking on the Jio Financial Services Q1 2024 results, Manish Chowdhury, Head of Research, StoxBox, said, “We believe Jio Financial Services is poised to deliver impressive results in Q1FY25 aided by its operating income, which is likely to show robust growth driven by strong investment income, which in turn should lead to healthy PAT growth on a sequential basis. Jio Financial Services continues to make strategic moves such as launching digital products and expanding its ecosystem, with a clear focus on future growth. The company has announced plans to introduce products for lending against stocks and mutual funds, leveraging Jio’s large user base, which could be a significant growth driver in the coming quarters.”
“Furthermore, with the NBFC receiving RBI approval to become a primary investment company, Jio Financial Services is well-positioned to unlock value from its investments. Overall, we expect the company to report robust numbers in the upcoming quarter,” the StoxBox expert added.
Jio Financial Stock Target Price
Speaking about the technical outlook of Jio Financial share price, Ganesh Dongre, Senior Manager, Technical Research at Anand Rathi, said, “Jio Financial Services share price is poised to make a fresh high at the ₹260 apiece level. If the stock breaks above this mark, the Reliance Group stock could make a fresh high by touching the ₹290-₹295 zone. Hence, those with Jio Finance stock in their portfolio are advised to stick to the script by keeping a stop loss at ₹205. If the stock breaks above ₹260 decisively, then one can upgrade the stop loss at ₹240 for the near-term target of ₹295.”
On the advice to new buyers regarding Jio Financial stock, Ganesh Dongre said, “New buyers are advised to wait for the breakout. Once the stock breaks above â‚ą260, one can buy this Reliance Group stock at the short term target of â‚ą295, keeping a stop loss of â‚ą240 apiece.”
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or brokerage firms, and not of Mint. Investors are advised to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
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