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The Bank of Canada’s divergence from the US Fed puts the crazy man in the spotlight

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Falling Canadian dollar could fuel inflation, but central bank says those concerns are a long way off
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Published June 8, 2024 • Last updated 13 hours ago • 3 minute read
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The loonie was trading just below 73 cents on Friday. Photo by Paul Chiasson/Canadian Press Archives
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O Bank of Canada trimmed your interest rate policy by 0.25 percent this week, but with the United States Federal Reserve While overnight rates are expected to remain stable until the autumn, questions are being raised about how far the gap between the two countries’ policy rates will grow.
Sadiq Adatia, chief investment officer at BMO Global Asset Management, said Canadian and U.S. rates have diverged by 50 basis points or more over the years, but could exceed that range given unique economic growth and inflation photos in each country.
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This divergence will likely cause the Canadian dollar to fall, he said, and there are some concerns it could fuel inflation.
Philip Petursson, chief investment strategist at IG Wealth Management, wrote in a note this week that there is a risk that the Canadian dollar falling to between 70 and 72 US cents if the Bank of Canada cuts rates by 50 basis points more than the Fed in 2024.
“This will erode our purchasing power and cause money to move to other parts of the world where the rate differential is much better,” said BMO’s Adatia. “If the divergence is really big and happens quickly, we could see a rise in inflation.”
However, he assigned a low probability to this outcome, noting that a large divergence is not his base case.
The loonie was trading just below 73 cents on Friday.
I don’t think we’re anywhere near that limit
Tiff Macklem
Tiff MacklemGovernor of the Bank of Canada, downplayed currency concerns during a press conference on Wednesday, noting that the two countries’ overnight rates have diverged in the past without lasting damage to their economies or markets.
Recognizing that there is a point at which such divergence could have negative impacts, he said: “I don’t think we are close to that limit.”
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Macklem added that there is no “bright line” to determine a tolerable size for the gap and added that there have been periods of “significant” divergence in the past.
Doug Porter, chief economist at the Bank of Montreal, said the “outer bound” of the difference between Canadian and U.S. overnight interest rates for most of the past 20 years has been 100 basis points, or one percentage point with the current Canadian or US rate. the upper segment, although he added that the divergence was even greater at times during the 1980s and 1990s.
“Unless there were some other factor at play – such as strong commodity prices or a broadly weak US dollar – an interest rate difference of more than 100 basis points would likely put serious downward pressure on the nutjob,” he said. Porter.
However, he suggested that the Bank of Canada’s willingness to ease monetary policy shows that central banks do not appear to be especially concerned about the potential for further currency easing. Additionally, Porter noted that previous predictions about the gap’s impact have not been borne out.
In 2003, for example, the biggest rise in the Canadian dollar in a single year – more than 20% – coincided with a 200 basis point differential between Canadian and US rates, but did not have the expected impact on inflation.
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“It fell, but not to the extent that the models expected inflation to fall in the face of a 21% increase in the loonie,” Porter said.
And why didn’t the economy react more strongly to the enormous change?
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“I believe companies are much more sophisticated now in hedging currency risks than they were in the 1970s and 1990s,” he said.
“Especially after the big swings of the 1990s, they really learned how to deal with exchange rate volatility.”
• Email: bshecter@nationalpost.com
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Breakfast on Wall Street: The Week Ahead

The spotlight next week will shift somewhat to the Federal Reserve’s second-quarter earnings season and monetary policy. Market watchers will be treated to results from several major names, including Dow 30 components Goldman Sachs (GS), UnitedHealth (UNH), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and American Express (AXP), along with streaming giant Netflix (NFLX).
The Fed will still attract some attention as investors will be eager to hear from a packed lineup of central bank speakers just before the policy meeting lockout period.
In terms of the economic calendar, after fifteen days of labor market and inflation indicators, activity data will gain momentum in the form of the latest retail sales and industrial production reports.
Earnings Highlight: Monday, July 15 – Goldman Sachs (GS) and BlackRock (Black). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Tuesday, July 16 – UnitedHealth (UNH), Bank of America (BAC), Progressive (PGR), Morgan Stanley (IN), PNC Financial (PNC) and JB Hunt Transport (JBHT). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Wednesday, July 17 – Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), US Bancorp (USB), Morgan Children (KMI), United Airlines (UAL) and Ally Financial (ALLY). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Thursday, July 18 – Netflix (NFLX), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Black stone (BX), Domino’s pizza (ZDP) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Friday, July 19 – American Express (AXP), Halliburton (THANKS) and Travelers (VRT (return to recoverable value)) See the full earnings calendar.
IPO Observation: Hospital and healthcare clinic operator Ardent Health Partners (TARDT), insurance service provider Twfg (TWFG) and the biotechnology company Lirum Therapeutics (LRTX) are expected to price their IPOs and begin trading next week. The analyst quiet period ends at Rectitude (RECT) to free up analysts to publish ratings.
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Trump shooting: Gold could hit record high, dollar and cryptocurrencies set to jump

Police cars outside the residence of Thomas Matthew Crooks, the suspected shooter at a Trump rally on Saturday, investigate the area in Pennsylvania. Following the incident, one rally attendee was killed, two rally attendees are in critical condition and Donald Trump suffered a non-fatal gunshot wound. The shooter is dead after being shot dead by the United States Secret Service. (Photo by Kyle Mazza/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Investors will initially favor traditional safe-haven assets and may lean toward trades more closely tied to former President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the White House after he survived an assassination attempt, according to market watchers.
“There will undoubtedly be some protectionist or safe-haven flows into Asia early this morning,” said Nick Twidale, chief market analyst at ATFX Global Markets. “I suspect gold could test all-time highs, we’ll see the yen being bought and the dollar, and flows into Treasuries as well.”
Early market commentary suggested Trump’s shooting at a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday could also prompt traders to increase his likelihood of success in the November election. His support for looser fiscal policy and higher tariffs is generally seen as likely to benefit the dollar and weaken Treasuries.
An indicator of market sentiment heading into the weekend: Bitcoin surged above $60,000, likely reflecting Trump’s pro-crypto stance.
Other assets positively linked to the so-called Trump trade include stocks of energy companies, private prisons, credit card companies and health insurers.
Traders will also be closely watching market measures of expected volatility on Monday, such as those in the tariff-sensitive Chinese yuan and Mexican peso, which have begun to price in the U.S. vote.
Trump said he was shot in the right ear after a shooting at his rally. His campaign said in a statement that he was “fine” after the incident, which prompted him to rush off the stage.
“Currencies will be the first major market on Monday in Asia to react to the weekend’s shots. There’s potential for extra volatility, and getting a clear reading could be especially difficult because liquidity will be hurt by Japan’s national holiday,” said Garfield Reynolds, Asia team leader for Bloomberg Markets Live.
Strategists had already expected a volatile run-up to the election, particularly as Democrats are still agonizing over President Joe Biden’s candidacy after his poor performance in last month’s debate raised questions about his age. Investors were also grappling with the possibility that the election could end in a drawn-out dispute or political violence.
But there is little precedent for events like those in Pennsylvania. When President Ronald Reagan was shot four decades ago, the stock market plunged before closing early. The next day, March 31, 1981, the S&P 500 rose more than 1% and benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell 9 basis points to 13.13%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Bond investors should pay particular attention as the attack is likely to boost Trump’s election chances and ultimately lead to concerns about the fiscal outlook, according to Marko Papic, chief strategist at California-based BCA Research Inc.
“The bond market must at some point become aware of President Trump’s greater chances of winning the White House than any of his rivals,” Papic wrote. “And I continue to believe that as his chances increase, so too must the likelihood of a bond market revolt.”
Kyle Rodda, senior financial markets analyst at Capital.com, said he was seeing client flows into Bitcoin and gold following the shooting.
“This news marks a turning point in American policy norms,” he said. “For markets, it means safe-haven trades, but more tilted toward non-traditional safe-havens.”
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Jio Financial share price: Should you buy this Reliance group stock on Monday ahead of Q1 FY2024 results?
Q1 2024 Results: Jio Financial Share Price will be in focus on Monday as the Reliance Group company has a fixed board meeting on July 15, 2024 to consider and approve the company’s unaudited standalone and consolidated financial results. Trust Group company informed about the Q1 2024 Results date on Wednesday last week via an exchange filing. According to stock market experts, Jio Financial Services Limited is poised to deliver impressive Q1 results for FY25 on solid operating income. They have forecast a healthy QoQ PAT for the company in Q1 FY25.
Jio Financial Services News
Speaking on the Jio Financial Services Q1 2024 results, Manish Chowdhury, Head of Research, StoxBox, said, “We believe Jio Financial Services is poised to deliver impressive results in Q1FY25 aided by its operating income, which is likely to show robust growth driven by strong investment income, which in turn should lead to healthy PAT growth on a sequential basis. Jio Financial Services continues to make strategic moves such as launching digital products and expanding its ecosystem, with a clear focus on future growth. The company has announced plans to introduce products for lending against stocks and mutual funds, leveraging Jio’s large user base, which could be a significant growth driver in the coming quarters.”
“Furthermore, with the NBFC receiving RBI approval to become a primary investment company, Jio Financial Services is well-positioned to unlock value from its investments. Overall, we expect the company to report robust numbers in the upcoming quarter,” the StoxBox expert added.
Jio Financial Stock Target Price
Speaking about the technical outlook of Jio Financial share price, Ganesh Dongre, Senior Manager, Technical Research at Anand Rathi, said, “Jio Financial Services share price is poised to make a fresh high at the ₹260 apiece level. If the stock breaks above this mark, the Reliance Group stock could make a fresh high by touching the ₹290-₹295 zone. Hence, those with Jio Finance stock in their portfolio are advised to stick to the script by keeping a stop loss at ₹205. If the stock breaks above ₹260 decisively, then one can upgrade the stop loss at ₹240 for the near-term target of ₹295.”
On the advice to new buyers regarding Jio Financial stock, Ganesh Dongre said, “New buyers are advised to wait for the breakout. Once the stock breaks above ₹260, one can buy this Reliance Group stock at the short term target of ₹295, keeping a stop loss of ₹240 apiece.”
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or brokerage firms, and not of Mint. Investors are advised to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
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