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Moneybeat: the latest economic news

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Moneybeat: the latest economic news

MARY REICHARD, host: Next up, The World and Everything in It: the Monday Moneybeat.

NICK EICHER, HOST: Now it’s time to talk business, markets and the economy with financial analyst and consultant David Bahnsen. David’s boss of the Bahnsen Group wealth management company. He’s here now and David, good morning.

DAVID BAHNSEN: Well, good morning. Nick, great to be with you.

EICHER: All right, lots of activity last week, David. We had the inflation report, the CPI Consumer Price Index and then the Fed had its last policy meeting. Lots of data stories. What do you think is the greatest story?

BAHNSEN: Yes, I think that was exactly it. Two different inflation reports were released, the CPI on Wednesday and then the PPI released on Thursday, both indicating downward pressure on inflation month over month. Producer prices, in particular, were negative and were expected to rise by around 0.1% and be -0.2% in the core and 0.3 in the overall price. And so you made a good move in terms of what you know the Fed is looking for in terms of coverage to get to that point of rate cuts. Was it just superficial and not sustainable and not that noteworthy? Well, that would be news for the bond market. Nick, we were talking at the end of April, and the 10-year bond was at 4.7%, and we were talking about whether or not it would get to 5% again, like it did last year. As I’m here talking, it’s at 4.22%. We’re talking about a 10-year, 50 basis point, half percentage point drop in six weeks. So a really strong indication in market prices of downward pressure on inflation and inflation expectations.

EICHER: Yes, and then that Fed meeting, David. I wonder what you thought of Chairman Powell’s statement afterwards? And you know, from what I can gather, it looks like the central bank has planned a rate cut later this year. Not long ago we were talking about two.

BAHNSEN: Yes, but they didn’t write anything. I think there is a small mistake there. But let me be clear: in November of last year, the Fed basically indicated that it was not going to raise rates again and published a so-called dot plot where its own governors predicted what they thought rates would be. It’s not the same as declaring what you’re going to do. If you think about it, the Fed can’t do that, because their goal is, “We’re data dependent, we’re objective.” Meeting after meeting, if the Fed knew in November 2023 what it was going to do in December 2024, it would end data dependency. It would just mean that we have already determined a path. So the dot plots are intended to be the Fed’s own forecasts. And as I’ve said for most of my adult life, not entirely, the dot plots have changed to reflect what the market is saying. The market hasn’t changed to reflect what the dot plots say, but the Fed’s own forecasts have. Well, it’s true that the Fed presented dot plots, half of the governors predicting one rate cut this year, half predicting two. I think there will end up being two, but I don’t think they will start in September. I think they will start in November and do another one in December. But it’s really at this point, when you’re talking about the end of the year, somewhat symbolic, and then the next rate cut in January. In any case, at least what the market and the Fed are predicting are some modest rate cuts very late in the year, and even those are subject to change, as we have seen this year, both the Fed’s own forecasts and the market’s forecasts. Forecasts themselves were discarded several months, sometimes.

EICHER: Well, political bad luck for President Biden. I mean, I say this deliberately, but six, nine months ago, the smart money was on Biden, benefiting from previous rate cuts at the height of the campaign season, but now he’s not going to make it.

BAHNSEN: Well, I don’t agree with that. I think if we want good luck as president, we want an easy monetary policy in the third year of his term. By the fourth year of a term, it will usually be too late. But I’m not sure it would matter much anyway. And the feeling that I—and now I’m more politicizing than I’m economizing, but I think this election comes down to issues, with President Biden’s immigration and inflation, and I think most of his narrative around these two issues are very well consolidated and, on both issues, it’s not very good for him. Now, of course, this election may not be determined by issues. It may ultimately be determined by which of the two candidates independent voters find more tolerable. I mean, we know it’s going to be a close election, but I think as far as the idea of ​​rate cuts, let’s say in July or September. I don’t think it would matter at all. It’s not like unemployment is actually high and rate cuts are going to occur and increase jobs. Unemployment is already low. It won’t go up or down based on a quarter-point move between now and then. So where Biden is lucky versus unlucky is that in the Fed raising rates from May 2022, where they were 0%, to July 2023, when it went to 5.5% and we didn’t go into recession, the recession would likely have been total . killer of the presidency, as it has been throughout history, and we haven’t had a recession. And so you could argue that he’s lucky in that regard.

EICHER: Yeah, so David, can we talk about super CEO Elon Musk for a moment? He was all over the news last week, working to restore his salary package, with an eye-popping $48 billion in stock compensation that when we first started hearing about it, was over 50 billion, but due to the decline in stocks Tesla’s fell a little behind, but it’s still an impressive number. What is his conclusion about that shareholder meeting last week and also about the notion that a judge can set your salary?

BAHNSEN: Well, it comes down to a board-approved compensation package that was passed along a while ago that was going to pay him 10% of the value created, and the company’s market capitalization went up by $600 billion, as he had very successful at that time. , executed a series of important initiatives and was going to receive something in the order of 60 billion dollars and then a judge in Delaware rejected it, which was, in my opinion, absolutely outrageous. The board approved the shareholder-approved private transaction between free parties in which the people in the game won $600 billion and a judge in Delaware ruled it was unfair. Now, look, any of us can feel: I don’t want the CEO to get that much money. No problem. Don’t own the company. Sell ​​the stock. You have no obligation to hold shares in a company where you feel the CEO is being overpaid and his interests are being harmed, but in this case the shareholders are only paying that amount to Elon Musk because they benefited, and this was a transaction between private parties. Therefore, I feel strongly about the rule of law. So the people who are in the game voted, and now, this week, there was a new vote, and it was upheld, and I think it was appropriate as a matter of the rule of law, and so going forward, either it will prove to be be a good investment or a bad investment. But the people who must determine whether it is a good investment are those who have the opportunity to make money if the investment goes well and the people who have the opportunity to lose money if the investment goes wrong. And in this articulation lies one of the most important pillars of all classical economics, the principle of skin in the game.

EICHER: Skin in the game. All right, David, I want to go back to the beginning where you talked about the importance of bond market signals and what they say about inflation expectations. So let’s define the terms here before we address the bond market itself and why it provides such important information about the direction of the economy.

BAHNSEN: The term today is bond market, and let’s be clear what we’re talking about. When we say the term bond market in financial markets, we are referring to the United States Treasury bond market. But when you talk about the bond market in the United States, in the United States of America, you’re really referring to interest rates. There is no credit risk. we are simply talking about the movement of interest rates up and down. And so you have a really good, clear, isolated view of how people are feeling about income, about what they’re willing to charge to be separated from their money. With a Treasury bond, you assume you will be repaid with the full faith and credit of the United States government. The same way people feel so good about FDIC insurance, a CD, things like that. This is literally a government-guaranteed treasury bond. James Carville, Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign manager, famously said, “If reincarnation were real, I would like to come back someday like the bond market,” because bond markets have the ability to have tremendous influence and influence. on financial markets, on the economy, in much of the world.

And when I refer to the bond market, I’m referring to billions of dollars, we know that there are 34 billion dollars in national debt. Therefore, at any given time we know how many treasury bonds there are. It is equal to the amount of national debt. And there are bonds that they are paying off, every month, and bonds that they are reissuing to issue new debt. And so you’re constantly dealing with new supply and demand. And it gives you an indication of what appetite there is, what investors want and what they need, and so on. It is strongly liquid, strongly transparent. This is what we mean by the bond market.

This gives us many indications of other financial conditions. And when I talk about 10 years, it’s a longer bond. In fact, this is really telling us what investors think about growth. Then you say, okay, look, if the economy is going to grow 3% a year, I’m going to want 3% or more, because you would think I could get that amount of money somewhere else, having my money, you know, invested in a different place. So the interest rate on the 10-year bond gives us a lot of indication about what the structural implications are for people, but of course growth, nominal growth, includes inflation plus real growth. And so if you think there will be 3% real growth and 1% inflation, that’s four, but if you think there will be 3% inflation and 1% real growth, that’s also in favor, but it’s very different for .

Thus, the bond market gives us a view of inflation and growth expectations, which is why I consider it such an important financial instrument.

EICHER: Okay. David Bahnsen, founder, managing partner and chief investment officer of the Bahnsen Group. You can check out David’s latest book, titled Full-Time: Work and The Meaning of Life, and you can check it out at fulltimebook. with. David, I hope you had a great Father’s Day weekend. Happy belated Father’s Day to you and I hope you have a great week ahead.

BAHNSEN: Well, happy day after Father’s Day to you too. You and I have lost fathers who meant so much to us, and it’s a special day for so many, so happy belated Father’s Day, my friend.

WORLD Radio transcripts are created on a rush deadline. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The official record of WORLD Radio programming is the audio record.

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Breakfast on Wall Street: The Week Ahead

FinCrypto Staff

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Wall Street Breakfast profile picture

The spotlight next week will shift somewhat to the Federal Reserve’s second-quarter earnings season and monetary policy. Market watchers will be treated to results from several major names, including Dow 30 components Goldman Sachs (GS), UnitedHealth (UNH), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and American Express (AXP), along with streaming giant Netflix (NFLX).

The Fed will still attract some attention as investors will be eager to hear from a packed lineup of central bank speakers just before the policy meeting lockout period.

In terms of the economic calendar, after fifteen days of labor market and inflation indicators, activity data will gain momentum in the form of the latest retail sales and industrial production reports.

Earnings Highlight: Monday, July 15 – Goldman Sachs (GS) and BlackRock (Black). See the full earnings calendar.

Earnings Highlight: Tuesday, July 16 – UnitedHealth (UNH), Bank of America (BAC), Progressive (PGR), Morgan Stanley (IN), PNC Financial (PNC) and JB Hunt Transport (JBHT). See the full earnings calendar.

Earnings Highlight: Wednesday, July 17 – Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), US Bancorp (USB), Morgan Children (KMI), United Airlines (UAL) and Ally Financial (ALLY). See the full earnings calendar.

Earnings Highlight: Thursday, July 18 – Netflix (NFLX), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Black stone (BX), Domino’s pizza (ZDP) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM). See the full earnings calendar.

Earnings Highlight: Friday, July 19 – American Express (AXP), Halliburton (THANKS) and Travelers (VRT (return to recoverable value)) See the full earnings calendar.

IPO Observation: Hospital and healthcare clinic operator Ardent Health Partners (TARDT), insurance service provider Twfg (TWFG) and the biotechnology company Lirum Therapeutics (LRTX) are expected to price their IPOs and begin trading next week. The analyst quiet period ends at Rectitude (RECT) to free up analysts to publish ratings.

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Trump shooting: Gold could hit record high, dollar and cryptocurrencies set to jump

FinCrypto Staff

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Police cars outside the residence of Thomas Matthew Crooks, the alleged shooter at a Trump rally on Saturday, investigate the area in Pennsylvania. In the aftermath of the incident, one rally attendee was killed, two rally attendees are in critical condition and Donald Trump suffered a non-fatal gunshot wound. The shooter is dead after being killed by the United States Secret Service. (Photo by Kyle Mazza/Anadolu via Getty Images)

Police cars outside the residence of Thomas Matthew Crooks, the suspected shooter at a Trump rally on Saturday, investigate the area in Pennsylvania. Following the incident, one rally attendee was killed, two rally attendees are in critical condition and Donald Trump suffered a non-fatal gunshot wound. The shooter is dead after being shot dead by the United States Secret Service. (Photo by Kyle Mazza/Anadolu via Getty Images)

Investors will initially favor traditional safe-haven assets and may lean toward trades more closely tied to former President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the White House after he survived an assassination attempt, according to market watchers.

“There will undoubtedly be some protectionist or safe-haven flows into Asia early this morning,” said Nick Twidale, chief market analyst at ATFX Global Markets. “I suspect gold could test all-time highs, we’ll see the yen being bought and the dollar, and flows into Treasuries as well.”

Early market commentary suggested Trump’s shooting at a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday could also prompt traders to increase his likelihood of success in the November election. His support for looser fiscal policy and higher tariffs is generally seen as likely to benefit the dollar and weaken Treasuries.

An indicator of market sentiment heading into the weekend: Bitcoin surged above $60,000, likely reflecting Trump’s pro-crypto stance.

Other assets positively linked to the so-called Trump trade include stocks of energy companies, private prisons, credit card companies and health insurers.

Traders will also be closely watching market measures of expected volatility on Monday, such as those in the tariff-sensitive Chinese yuan and Mexican peso, which have begun to price in the U.S. vote.

Trump said he was shot in the right ear after a shooting at his rally. His campaign said in a statement that he was “fine” after the incident, which prompted him to rush off the stage.

“Currencies will be the first major market on Monday in Asia to react to the weekend’s shots. There’s potential for extra volatility, and getting a clear reading could be especially difficult because liquidity will be hurt by Japan’s national holiday,” said Garfield Reynolds, Asia team leader for Bloomberg Markets Live.

Strategists had already expected a volatile run-up to the election, particularly as Democrats are still agonizing over President Joe Biden’s candidacy after his poor performance in last month’s debate raised questions about his age. Investors were also grappling with the possibility that the election could end in a drawn-out dispute or political violence.

But there is little precedent for events like those in Pennsylvania. When President Ronald Reagan was shot four decades ago, the stock market plunged before closing early. The next day, March 31, 1981, the S&P 500 rose more than 1% and benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell 9 basis points to 13.13%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Bond investors should pay particular attention as the attack is likely to boost Trump’s election chances and ultimately lead to concerns about the fiscal outlook, according to Marko Papic, chief strategist at California-based BCA Research Inc.

“The bond market must at some point become aware of President Trump’s greater chances of winning the White House than any of his rivals,” Papic wrote. “And I continue to believe that as his chances increase, so too must the likelihood of a bond market revolt.”

Kyle Rodda, senior financial markets analyst at Capital.com, said he was seeing client flows into Bitcoin and gold following the shooting.

“This news marks a turning point in American policy norms,” he said. “For markets, it means safe-haven trades, but more tilted toward non-traditional safe-havens.”

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Latest Business News Live Updates Today, July 11, 2024

FinCrypto Staff

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Latest Business News Live Updates Today, July 11, 2024

Follow us for stories on Bill Gates, Elon Musk, Mukesh Ambani, Gautam Adani as we bring you everything that’s happening in the business world. Follow the latest gold and silver prices here too. Stay in the know on all things business with us.

Latest news on July 11, 2024: Airtel says its new Xstream Fiber plans bundle over 350 live TV channels (Official Photo) (Reuters) Disclaimer: This is an AI-generated live blog and has not been edited by Hindustan Times staff.

Follow all the updates here:

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    Business News LIVE Updates: Indian companies falsified generic Viagra data to get approval, says US FDA: Report

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    LIVE Business News Updates: Namita Thapar’s emotional post on Emcure IPO listing: ‘Mirza Ghalib sums up my feelings’

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    LIVE business news updates: Amazon could face investigation over treatment of UK food suppliers, watchdog says

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    Business News LIVE Updates: Amazon India employees on working conditions: Made to stand for hours, bathroom breaks not allowed

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    LIVE Business News Updates: UK overhauls listing rules in bid to attract IPOs to London: What has changed?

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    Business News LIVE Updates: First Abu Dhabi Bank denies interest in acquiring stake in Yes Bank: Report

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    LIVE Business News Updates: TCS Share Price Surges Ahead of Q1 Results: What Brokers Say About the Stock

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    LIVE Business News Updates: Yes Bank shares rise after Moody’s revises outlook to ‘positive’ from ‘stable’

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    Business News LIVE Updates: Sahaj Solar IPO opens today: All you need to know before subscribing to the issue

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  • Thu, 11 Jul 2024 08:35 AM

    LIVE Business News Updates: Elon Musk Says Second Neuralink Brain Implant Will ‘Give People Superpowers’ Within a Week

    • Elon Musk said Neuralink will make some changes to try to alleviate the problem of its electrode wires retracting from brain tissue.

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  • Thu, 11 Jul 2024 07:59 AM

    LIVE Business News Updates: Apple warns Indian iPhone users of possible Pegasus-like ‘spyware attack’

    • In April this year, the Indian Computer Emergency Response Team (Cert-In) flagged several vulnerabilities in Apple’s operating system for iPhone and iPad.

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  • Thu, 11 Jul 2024 07:45 AM

    Business News LIVE Updates: US stock markets at record highs led by world’s biggest tech companies

    • The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 2.4% to a record high after Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. reported strong quarterly revenue.

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News / Business / Latest Business News Live Updates Today, July 11, 2024

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Jio Financial share price: Should you buy this Reliance group stock on Monday ahead of Q1 FY2024 results?

FinCrypto Staff

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Jio Financial share price: Should you buy this Reliance group stock on Monday ahead of Q1 FY2024 results?

Q1 2024 Results: Jio Financial Share Price will be in focus on Monday as the Reliance Group company has a fixed board meeting on July 15, 2024 to consider and approve the company’s unaudited standalone and consolidated financial results. Trust Group company informed about the Q1 2024 Results date on Wednesday last week via an exchange filing. According to stock market experts, Jio Financial Services Limited is poised to deliver impressive Q1 results for FY25 on solid operating income. They have forecast a healthy QoQ PAT for the company in Q1 FY25.

Jio Financial Services News

Speaking on the Jio Financial Services Q1 2024 results, Manish Chowdhury, Head of Research, StoxBox, said, “We believe Jio Financial Services is poised to deliver impressive results in Q1FY25 aided by its operating income, which is likely to show robust growth driven by strong investment income, which in turn should lead to healthy PAT growth on a sequential basis. Jio Financial Services continues to make strategic moves such as launching digital products and expanding its ecosystem, with a clear focus on future growth. The company has announced plans to introduce products for lending against stocks and mutual funds, leveraging Jio’s large user base, which could be a significant growth driver in the coming quarters.”

“Furthermore, with the NBFC receiving RBI approval to become a primary investment company, Jio Financial Services is well-positioned to unlock value from its investments. Overall, we expect the company to report robust numbers in the upcoming quarter,” the StoxBox expert added.

Jio Financial Stock Target Price

Speaking about the technical outlook of Jio Financial share price, Ganesh Dongre, Senior Manager, Technical Research at Anand Rathi, said, “Jio Financial Services share price is poised to make a fresh high at the ₹260 apiece level. If the stock breaks above this mark, the Reliance Group stock could make a fresh high by touching the ₹290-₹295 zone. Hence, those with Jio Finance stock in their portfolio are advised to stick to the script by keeping a stop loss at ₹205. If the stock breaks above ₹260 decisively, then one can upgrade the stop loss at ₹240 for the near-term target of ₹295.”

On the advice to new buyers regarding Jio Financial stock, Ganesh Dongre said, “New buyers are advised to wait for the breakout. Once the stock breaks above ₹260, one can buy this Reliance Group stock at the short term target of ₹295, keeping a stop loss of ₹240 apiece.”

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or brokerage firms, and not of Mint. Investors are advised to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions.

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