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Mester says the Fed can better explain how the economy affects decisions
(Bloomberg) — Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester said the U.S. central bank should consider ways to better communicate to the public how economic conditions will affect future policy decisions.
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Speaking in Tokyo on Tuesday, Mester recommended two key changes: adding more words to the Fed’s post-meeting policy statement – to describe how officials assess economic developments and potential risks to the outlook – and more detail to its quarterly summary. policymakers’ economic forecasts. .
“Improvements in communications would make monetary policy more effective in normal times and would also improve the effectiveness of unconventional policy tools, such as forward guidance, in extraordinary times,” she said in prepared remarks at a conference hosted by the Bank of Japan.
The Cleveland Fed chief, who votes on the Fed’s policy-setting committee this year, said she expects officials to consider communications as part of the five-year review of its policy framework, expected to begin in late 2024. She did not commented on the outlook for the economy or interest rates.
Mester said increasingly shorter political statements, while often seen as a virtue, can also be problematic as each word takes on additional meaning. They can also make it more difficult for the public to see the connection between economic developments and political decisions.
She said it would be better for policymakers to “take control of the narrative” and use more words to describe how economic developments have affected the outlook and the potential risks to those prospects.
Placing more emphasis on risks “would give market participants and the general public a better sense of the contingent and data-dependent nature of policymaking and increase central bank credibility to the extent that a change in policy would be seen less as a breach of promise,” she said.
Mester also said that scenario analysis — or describing how different scenarios would lead to different policy actions — should also be a standard part of the Fed’s communications.
“This could be particularly useful in periods like today, when the underlying structural elements of the economy may have changed,” she said.
Read more: Fed’s forecasting method appears outdated as Bernanke lays out a new path
The story continues
The Fed should also consider publishing an anonymous matrix that links policymakers’ forecasts for interest rates — often referred to as a “dot plot” — with their projections for growth, unemployment and inflation in its forecast. Summary of Economic Projections, said Mester.
“Currently, the variables in the SEP are not interlinked across participants and the median paths provided do not necessarily represent a coherent prediction,” she said.
Connecting the dots would give the public a better sense of how each individual official would adjust policy based on changing economic conditions, Mester said, echoing an argument that Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee also made in May.
Mester will step down as president of the Cleveland Fed in June when his term expires.
Balance sheet
Speaking on the same panel, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman focused her prepared remarks on the Fed’s balance sheet, the reduction of which “proceeded relatively smoothly,” she said.
Fed officials will slow the pace of balance sheet reduction starting next month and have said they intend to stop when the level of bank reserves is just above a level they consider ample.
“In my opinion, we are not at that point yet,” Bowman said, adding that he would have supported waiting to slow the pace of asset outflows or implementing a more gradual slowdown.
“In my opinion, it is important to continue to reduce the size of the balance sheet to achieve ample reserves as quickly as possible and while the economy is still strong,” she said. “Doing so will allow the Federal Reserve to use its balance sheet more effectively and credibly to respond to future economic and financial shocks.”
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Breakfast on Wall Street: The Week Ahead
The spotlight next week will shift somewhat to the Federal Reserve’s second-quarter earnings season and monetary policy. Market watchers will be treated to results from several major names, including Dow 30 components Goldman Sachs (GS), UnitedHealth (UNH), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and American Express (AXP), along with streaming giant Netflix (NFLX).
The Fed will still attract some attention as investors will be eager to hear from a packed lineup of central bank speakers just before the policy meeting lockout period.
In terms of the economic calendar, after fifteen days of labor market and inflation indicators, activity data will gain momentum in the form of the latest retail sales and industrial production reports.
Earnings Highlight: Monday, July 15 – Goldman Sachs (GS) and BlackRock (Black). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Tuesday, July 16 – UnitedHealth (UNH), Bank of America (BAC), Progressive (PGR), Morgan Stanley (IN), PNC Financial (PNC) and JB Hunt Transport (JBHT). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Wednesday, July 17 – Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), US Bancorp (USB), Morgan Children (KMI), United Airlines (UAL) and Ally Financial (ALLY). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Thursday, July 18 – Netflix (NFLX), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Black stone (BX), Domino’s pizza (ZDP) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Friday, July 19 – American Express (AXP), Halliburton (THANKS) and Travelers (VRT (return to recoverable value)) See the full earnings calendar.
IPO Observation: Hospital and healthcare clinic operator Ardent Health Partners (TARDT), insurance service provider Twfg (TWFG) and the biotechnology company Lirum Therapeutics (LRTX) are expected to price their IPOs and begin trading next week. The analyst quiet period ends at Rectitude (RECT) to free up analysts to publish ratings.
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Trump shooting: Gold could hit record high, dollar and cryptocurrencies set to jump
Police cars outside the residence of Thomas Matthew Crooks, the suspected shooter at a Trump rally on Saturday, investigate the area in Pennsylvania. Following the incident, one rally attendee was killed, two rally attendees are in critical condition and Donald Trump suffered a non-fatal gunshot wound. The shooter is dead after being shot dead by the United States Secret Service. (Photo by Kyle Mazza/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Investors will initially favor traditional safe-haven assets and may lean toward trades more closely tied to former President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the White House after he survived an assassination attempt, according to market watchers.
“There will undoubtedly be some protectionist or safe-haven flows into Asia early this morning,” said Nick Twidale, chief market analyst at ATFX Global Markets. “I suspect gold could test all-time highs, we’ll see the yen being bought and the dollar, and flows into Treasuries as well.”
Early market commentary suggested Trump’s shooting at a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday could also prompt traders to increase his likelihood of success in the November election. His support for looser fiscal policy and higher tariffs is generally seen as likely to benefit the dollar and weaken Treasuries.
An indicator of market sentiment heading into the weekend: Bitcoin surged above $60,000, likely reflecting Trump’s pro-crypto stance.
Other assets positively linked to the so-called Trump trade include stocks of energy companies, private prisons, credit card companies and health insurers.
Traders will also be closely watching market measures of expected volatility on Monday, such as those in the tariff-sensitive Chinese yuan and Mexican peso, which have begun to price in the U.S. vote.
Trump said he was shot in the right ear after a shooting at his rally. His campaign said in a statement that he was “fine” after the incident, which prompted him to rush off the stage.
“Currencies will be the first major market on Monday in Asia to react to the weekend’s shots. There’s potential for extra volatility, and getting a clear reading could be especially difficult because liquidity will be hurt by Japan’s national holiday,” said Garfield Reynolds, Asia team leader for Bloomberg Markets Live.
Strategists had already expected a volatile run-up to the election, particularly as Democrats are still agonizing over President Joe Biden’s candidacy after his poor performance in last month’s debate raised questions about his age. Investors were also grappling with the possibility that the election could end in a drawn-out dispute or political violence.
But there is little precedent for events like those in Pennsylvania. When President Ronald Reagan was shot four decades ago, the stock market plunged before closing early. The next day, March 31, 1981, the S&P 500 rose more than 1% and benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell 9 basis points to 13.13%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Bond investors should pay particular attention as the attack is likely to boost Trump’s election chances and ultimately lead to concerns about the fiscal outlook, according to Marko Papic, chief strategist at California-based BCA Research Inc.
“The bond market must at some point become aware of President Trump’s greater chances of winning the White House than any of his rivals,” Papic wrote. “And I continue to believe that as his chances increase, so too must the likelihood of a bond market revolt.”
Kyle Rodda, senior financial markets analyst at Capital.com, said he was seeing client flows into Bitcoin and gold following the shooting.
“This news marks a turning point in American policy norms,” he said. “For markets, it means safe-haven trades, but more tilted toward non-traditional safe-havens.”
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Latest Business News Live Updates Today, July 11, 2024
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 08:44 PM
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 03:58 PM
Business News LIVE Updates: TCS Q1 results meet estimates: Net profit up 9%, ₹10 dividend declared
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 03:51 PM
Business News LIVE Updates: Indian companies falsified generic Viagra data to get approval, says US FDA: Report
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 03:09 PM
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 02:39 PM
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 11:30 AM
Business News LIVE Updates: First Abu Dhabi Bank denies interest in acquiring stake in Yes Bank: Report
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 11:04 AM
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LIVE Business News Updates: Reliance Jio IPO listing likely in 2025 at $112 billion valuation: Jefferies
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LIVE Business News Updates: Yes Bank shares rise after Moody’s revises outlook to ‘positive’ from ‘stable’
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 08:40 AM
LIVE Business News Updates: Why Analysts Believe India’s Earnings Season May Disappoint Stock Market Investors
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 07:59 AM
LIVE Business News Updates: Apple warns Indian iPhone users of possible Pegasus-like ‘spyware attack’
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 07:45 AM
Business News LIVE Updates: US stock markets at record highs led by world’s biggest tech companies
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Jio Financial share price: Should you buy this Reliance group stock on Monday ahead of Q1 FY2024 results?
Q1 2024 Results: Jio Financial Share Price will be in focus on Monday as the Reliance Group company has a fixed board meeting on July 15, 2024 to consider and approve the company’s unaudited standalone and consolidated financial results. Trust Group company informed about the Q1 2024 Results date on Wednesday last week via an exchange filing. According to stock market experts, Jio Financial Services Limited is poised to deliver impressive Q1 results for FY25 on solid operating income. They have forecast a healthy QoQ PAT for the company in Q1 FY25.
Jio Financial Services News
Speaking on the Jio Financial Services Q1 2024 results, Manish Chowdhury, Head of Research, StoxBox, said, “We believe Jio Financial Services is poised to deliver impressive results in Q1FY25 aided by its operating income, which is likely to show robust growth driven by strong investment income, which in turn should lead to healthy PAT growth on a sequential basis. Jio Financial Services continues to make strategic moves such as launching digital products and expanding its ecosystem, with a clear focus on future growth. The company has announced plans to introduce products for lending against stocks and mutual funds, leveraging Jio’s large user base, which could be a significant growth driver in the coming quarters.”
“Furthermore, with the NBFC receiving RBI approval to become a primary investment company, Jio Financial Services is well-positioned to unlock value from its investments. Overall, we expect the company to report robust numbers in the upcoming quarter,” the StoxBox expert added.
Jio Financial Stock Target Price
Speaking about the technical outlook of Jio Financial share price, Ganesh Dongre, Senior Manager, Technical Research at Anand Rathi, said, “Jio Financial Services share price is poised to make a fresh high at the ₹260 apiece level. If the stock breaks above this mark, the Reliance Group stock could make a fresh high by touching the ₹290-₹295 zone. Hence, those with Jio Finance stock in their portfolio are advised to stick to the script by keeping a stop loss at ₹205. If the stock breaks above ₹260 decisively, then one can upgrade the stop loss at ₹240 for the near-term target of ₹295.”
On the advice to new buyers regarding Jio Financial stock, Ganesh Dongre said, “New buyers are advised to wait for the breakout. Once the stock breaks above ₹260, one can buy this Reliance Group stock at the short term target of ₹295, keeping a stop loss of ₹240 apiece.”
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or brokerage firms, and not of Mint. Investors are advised to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
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