ETFs
Inflation, retail trade and household debt
Economic indicators provide insight into the overall health and performance of an economy. They are essential tools for policymakers, advisors, investors and businesses to make informed decisions regarding business strategies and financial markets. In the week ending May 16, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (TO SPY A) increased by 1.64% while the Invesco S&P 500® Equal Weight ETF (RRSP A-) is up 1.18%. Inflation has been a constant topic of conversation for the past few years due to its role in the Fed’s interest rate policy and its ability to quickly influence financial markets.
The Fed has been cautious about making changes to monetary policy, emphasizing the need to have confidence that inflation is moving closer to its 2% target. This article seeks to summarize three important economic indicators from the past week to provide insight into the latest trends in inflation and consumer spending.
Consumer price index
Inflation finally showed signs of slowing last month after several higher-than-expected readings to start the year. THE Consumer price index increased by 3.4% in April, compared to 3.5% in March and in line with expectations. Compared to the previous month, consumer prices increased by 0.3%, which was lower than the expected growth of 0.4%. The main driver of growth in April was the continued rise in housing costs as well as the increase in gasoline prices. Together, these two elements contributed to more than 70% of the overall increase.
Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, returned to its lowest level since April 2021. Core CPI fell to 3.6% on an annual basis, as foreseen. Additionally, core prices increased by 0.3% from March, as expected.
The question remains when the Fed will start lowering rates. Although the Fed is still expected to hold rates steady through its upcoming meetings, the latest CPI numbers support the idea of a rate cut later this year. At the time of writing, the CME Fed Monitoring Tool indicates a 91% probability for rate stability at the June meeting and a 69% probability for the July meeting. The Fed CME monitoring tool currently indicates a 51% chance that the first rate cut will occur in September.
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Retail sales
U.S. consumers appear to continue to become more cautious as their spending took an unexpected pause last month. Retail sales remained stable in April, below the expected growth of 0.4%. In addition, growth for the month of March was revised downward. Consumer spending increased in a handful of sectors, including gas stations (3.1%), clothing stores (1.6%), electronics and appliance stores (1.5%) and food and beverage stores (0.8%). At the same time, most other sectors saw their spending decline.
Core retail sales (excluding automobiles) rose 0.2% from March, as expected. Finally, controlled purchases, considered an even more “central” element of retail sales, decreased by 0.3% compared to the previous month. Although this series generally does not get as much attention as the headline and fundamental numbers, controlled purchases are a more consistent and reliable reading of the economy because they eliminate many volatile components.
Overall, consumer spending is off to a slower start than expected for 2024 as Americans continue to struggle with inflation and high rates. The latest retail sales data are unlikely to cause a major change in the Fed’s interest rate policy, but they reinforce the idea that rate cuts are not completely off the table for this year.
Retail sales will impact interest in the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT B+), VanEck Retail ETF (RTH A-), Amplify Online Retail ETF (I BUY C+), and ProShares Online Retail ETF (ONLN B).
Household debt and credit
In the last quarterly household debt and credit According to a report released by the New York Fed, we saw a $184 billion increase in household debt, reaching a record $17.69 trillion in the first quarter of this year. The latest data represents an increase of 1.09% from the fourth quarter’s debt level, which stood at $17.5 trillion. The first quarter increase was largely driven by mortgage and auto loan balances, both of which reached new all-time highs. Specifically, mortgage balances increased by $190 billion (1.55%) to $12.442 billion and auto loan balances increased by $9 billion (0.56%) to $1.616 billion. of dollars. Meanwhile, credit card and student loan balances both declined in the first quarter but remain high. This comprehensive report serves as an indicator of the financial status of U.S. households, providing insight into their economic well-being.
Economic indicators and the week ahead
This week we will receive data on a few additional housing indicators. The National Association of Realtors will release April data on existing home sales on Wednesday, followed on Thursday by the Census Bureau releasing data on new home sales. These real estate market indicators will impact homebuilders and residential real estate ETFs such as iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB A), SPDR S&P Home Builders ETF (XHB A+), and iShares Residential and Multi-Sector Real Estate ETF (GROUND A-). Existing home sales are expected to decline slightly to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.18 million units. New home sales are expected to fall at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 680,000 units.
Also this week we will receive the latest consumer confidence data with the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index. On Friday, this month’s final report, which could impact interest in the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY A), is expected to remain at May’s preliminary level of 67.4.
For more news, information and analysis, visit Innovative ETF Channel.
ETFs
Missed the Bull Market Resumption? 3 ETFs to Help You Build Wealth for Decades
The market’s rebound from the 2022 bear market was not only unexpected. It was also bigger than expected. S&P 500 The stock price is up 60% from the bear market low, despite no clear signs at the time that such a rally was in the works. Chances are you missed at least part of this current rally.
If so, don’t be discouraged: you’re in good company. You’re also far from financially ruined. While you can’t go back and make up for the missed opportunity, for long-term investors, the growth potential is much greater.
If you want to make sure you don’t miss the next big bull run, you might want to tweak your strategy a bit. This time around, you might try buying fewer stocks and focusing more on exchange traded funds (or ETFs), which are often easier to hold when things get tough for the overall market.
With that in mind, here’s a closer look at three very different ETFs to consider buying that could – collectively – complement your portfolio brilliantly.
Let’s start with the basics: dividend growth
Most investors naturally favor growth, choosing growth stocks to achieve that goal. And the strategy usually works. However, most long-term investors may not realize that they can get the same type of net return with boring dividend stocks like the ones held in the portfolio. Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (NYSEMKT: VIG) which reflects the S&P US Dividend Growth Index.
As the name suggests, this Vanguard fund and its underlying index hold stocks that not only pay consistent dividends, but also have a history of consistently increasing dividends. To be included in the S&P US Dividend Growers Index, a company must have increased its dividend every year for at least the past 10 years. In most cases, however, they have been doing so for much longer.
The ETF’s current dividend yield of just under 1.8% isn’t exactly exciting. In fact, it’s so low that investors might wonder how this fund is keeping up with the broader market, let alone growth stocks. What’s being grossly underestimated here is the sheer magnitude of these stocks. dividend growthOver the past 10 years, its dividend per share has nearly doubled, and more than tripled from 15 years ago.
The reason is that solid dividend stocks generally outperform their non-dividend-paying counterparts. Calculations by mutual fund firm Hartford indicate that since 1973, S&P 500 stocks with a long history of dividend growth have averaged a single-digit annual return, compared with a much more modest 4.3% annual gain for non-dividend-paying stocks, and an average annual return of just 7.7% for an equal-weighted version of the S&P 500. The numbers confirm that there’s a lot to be said for reliable, consistent income.
The story continues
Then add capital appreciation through technology
That said, there’s no particular reason why your portfolio can’t also hold something a little more volatile than a dividend-focused holding. If you can stomach the volatility that’s sure to continue, take a stake in the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQ).
This Invesco ETF (often called the “cubes” or the triple-Q) is based on the Nasdaq-100 index. Typically, this index consists of 100 of the Nasdaq Composite IndexThe index is one of the largest non-financial indices at any given time. It is updated quarterly, although extreme imbalance situations may result in unplanned rebalancing of the index.
That’s not what makes this fund a must-have for many investors, though. It turns out that most high-growth tech companies choose to list their shares through the Nasdaq Sotck exchange rather than other exchanges like the New York Stock Exchange or the American Stock ExchangeNames like Apple, MicrosoftAnd Nvidia are not only Nasdaq-listed securities. They are also the top holdings of this ETF, with Amazon, Meta-platformsand Google’s parent company AlphabetThese are of course some of the highest-yielding stocks on the market in recent years.
This won’t always be the case. Just as companies like Nvidia and Apple have squeezed other names out of the index to make room for their stocks, these current names could also be replaced by other names (although it will likely be a while before that happens). It’s the proverbial life cycle of the market.
This shift, however, will likely be driven by technology companies that are offering revolutionary products and services. Owning a stake in the Invesco QQQ Trust is a simple, low-cost way to ensure you’re invested in at least most of their stocks at the perfect time.
Don’t forget indexing, but try a different approach
Finally, while Triple-Q and Vanguard Dividend Appreciation funds are smart ways to diversify your portfolio over the long term, the good old indexing strategy still works. In other words, rather than risk underperforming the market by trying to beat it, stick to tracking the long-term performance of a broad stock index.
Most investors will opt for something like the SPDR S&P 500 Exchange Traded Fund (NYSEMKT:SPY), which of course mirrors the large-cap S&P 500 index. And if you already own one, great: stick with it.
If and when you have some spare cash to put to good use, consider starting a mid-cap funds as the iShares Core S&P Mid-Cap ETF (NYSEMKT: IJH) instead. Why? Because you’ll likely get better results with this ETF than you will with large-cap index funds. Over the past 30 years, S&P 400 Mid-Cap Index significantly outperformed the S&P 500.
^MID Chart
The disparate degree of gains actually makes sense. While no one disputes the solid foundations on which most S&P 500 companies are built, they are in many ways victims of their own size: It’s hard to get bigger when you’re already big. This is in contrast to the mid-cap companies that make up the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index. These organizations have moved past their rocky, shaky early years and are just entering their era of high growth. Not all of them will survive this phase, but companies like Advanced microsystems And Super microcomputer Those that survive end up being incredibly rewarding to their patient shareholders.
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John Mackey, former CEO of Amazon’s Whole Foods Market, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Randi Zuckerberg, former director of market development and spokesperson for Facebook and sister of Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. James Brumley has positions in Alphabet. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Advanced Micro Devices, Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Vanguard Specialized Funds – Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF. The Motley Fool recommends Nasdaq and recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a position in Advanced Micro Devices, Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Vanguard Specialized Funds – Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF. The Motley Fool recommends Nasdaq and recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. disclosure policy.
Missed the Bull Market Resumption? 3 ETFs to Help You Build Wealth for Decades was originally published by The Motley Fool
ETFs
This Simple ETF Could Turn $500 a Month Into $1 Million
This large-cap ETF offers investors the potential for above-market returns while minimizing risk.
It’s always inspiring to hear stories of people who invested in a company and made tons of money as the company grew and became successful. While these stories are a testament to the power of investing, they can also be misleading. That’s not because it doesn’t happen often, but because you don’t have to make a big splash on a single company to make a lot of money in the stock market.
Invest regularly in exchange traded funds (AND F) is a great way to build wealth. ETFs allow you to invest in dozens, hundreds, and sometimes thousands of companies in a single investment. For investors looking for an ETF that can help them become millionaires, look no further than the Vanguard Growth ETFs (VUG 0.61%).
A history of outperforming the market
Since its launch in January 2004, this ETF has outperformed the market (based on S&P 500 Back), with an average total return of around 11.6%. The returns are even more impressive when looking back over the past decade, with the ETF posting an average total return of around 15.7%.
The ETF’s past success doesn’t mean it will continue on this path, but for the sake of illustration, let’s take a middle ground and assume it averages about 13% annual returns over the long term. Averaging those returns, monthly investments of $500 could top the $1 million mark in just over 25 years.
Assuming (emphasis on the word “assume”) that the ETF continues to generate an average total return of 15.7% over the past decade, investing $500 a month could get you past $1 million in about 23 years. At an annual return of 11.6%, that would take nearly 28 years.
There is no way to predict the future performance of the ETF, but the most important thing is the power of time and Compound profit. Earning $1 million by saving alone is a difficult and unachievable task for most people. However, it becomes much more achievable if you give yourself time and make regular investments, no matter how small.
So why choose the Vanguard Growth ETF?
This ETF can offer investors the best of both worlds. On the one hand, since it only contains large cap stocksIt offers more stability and less volatility than you typically find with smaller growth stocks. At the other end, the focus on growth means it is built with the goal of outperforming the market.
Investing involves a tradeoff between risk and return, and this ETF falls somewhere in the middle for the most part. That’s not just because it only contains large-cap stocks. It’s also because large-cap stocks are leading the way. Here are the ETF’s top 10 holdings:
- Microsoft: 12.60%
- Apple: 11.51%
- Nvidia: 10.61%
- Alphabet (both share classes): 7.54%
- Amazon: 6.72%
- Meta-platforms: 4.21%
- Eli Lilly: 2.88%
- You’re here: 1.98%
- Visa: 1.72%
The Vanguard Growth ETF is not as diversified as other broad ETFs, with the top 10 holdings making up nearly 60% of the fund and the “The Magnificent Seven” with stocks accounting for about 55%. However, many of these companies (particularly mega-cap technology stocks) have been among the best performers in the stock market over the past decade and still have great growth opportunities ahead of them.
Big tech stocks are expected to continue to see growth in areas such as cloud computing, artificial intelligenceand cybersecurity; Eli Lilly will benefit from advances in biotechnologyTesla is one of the leaders in electric vehicles, which are still in the early stages of development; and Visa is expected to be one of the forerunners as the world moves toward more digital payments.
ETF concentration adds risk, especially if Microsoft, Apple or Nvidia is experiencing a slowdownBut these companies are well positioned to drive long-term growth despite any short-term setbacks that may arise. Consistent investments over time in the Vanguard Growth ETF should pay off for investors.
Randi Zuckerberg, former head of market development and spokesperson for Facebook and sister of Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Stefon Walters has positions in Apple and Microsoft. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, Vanguard Index Funds-Vanguard Growth ETF, and Visa. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a position in shares of Apple and Microsoft. disclosure policy.
ETFs
Ethereum ETFs Could Bring in $1 Billion a Month
In a recent interview with Bloomberg, Kraken’s chief strategy officer Thomas Perfumo predicted that Ethereum ETFs could attract between $750 million and $1 billion in monthly investments.
“Market sentiment is being priced in. I think the market has priced in something like $750 million to $1 billion of net inflows into Ethereum ETF products each month,” Perfumo said.
In the interviewPerfumo noted that if inflows exceed expectations, it could provide strong support to the industry and potentially drive Ethereum to new record highs.
This creates positive support for the industry, if we go beyond that, note that Bitcoin was at a rate above $2.5 billion
He said
Moreover, the hype around Ethereum ETFs has already sparked some optimism among investors. After the SEC approved the 19b-4 filing, Ethereum’s price jumped 22%, attracting investment into crypto assets.
This price movement shows how sensitive the market is to regulatory changes and the growth potential once ETFs are approved.
Perfumo also highlighted other factors supporting current market sentiment, including the upcoming US elections and a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Recent US CPI data suggests disinflation on a monthly and annual basis, with some traditional firms predicting rate cuts as early as September.
These broader economic factors, combined with developments in the crypto space, are shaping the overall market outlook.
Regarding Kraken’s strategy, Perfumo highlighted the exchange’s goal of driving cryptocurrency adoption through strategic initiatives. When asked about rumors of Kraken going public, he reiterated that the company’s intention is instead to broaden cryptocurrency adoption.
Read also : Invesco, Galaxy Cut Ether ETF Fees to 0.25% in Competitive Market
ETFs
Kraken Executive Expects Ethereum ETF Launch to “Lift All Boats”
Kraken Chief Strategy Officer Thomas Perfumemo said: Ethereum ETFs (ETH) could help the crypto sector while commenting on political developments in the United States.
On July 12, Perfumo told Bloomberg that spot Ethereum ETFs would attract capital flows while drawing attention to crypto, noting:
“It’s a rising tide, which lifts the whole history of the boat.”
Perfumo further explained that the final value of Ethereum “depends on the Ethereum ETF.”
He said the cryptocurrency market is “pricing in” between $750 million and $1 billion in net inflows into Ethereum products on a monthly basis, which would imply that Ethereum could reach all-time highs between $4,000 and $5,000.
Perfumo also compared expectations to Bitcoin’s all-time high in March, which he called a “silent spike” that occurred without any evidence of millions of new investors entering the industry.
Political evolution
Perfumo also commented on political developments. At the beginning of the interview, he said that the results of the US elections “will set the tone for policymaking and the legislative agenda for the next four years.”
He also stressed the importance of legislative action and clarity and noted that recent developments show bipartisan support in Congress.
The House recently voted to pass the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act (FIT21) and attempted to repeal controversial SEC accounting rules with the Senate. However, the president Joe Biden Chosen to veto The resolution.
Perfume said:
“Even if you encounter obstacles at the executive level, [there’s] “There is still good progress to come.”
He added that the Republican Party appears “more pro-crypto.” [and] “more progressive” on the issue, noting Donald Trump plans to attend the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville.
Trump has also made numerous statements in support of pro-crypto policy, including at recent campaign events in Wisconsin And San Francisco.
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