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How AI Distorts the Returns of Vanguard’s Largest ETFs: VOO vs. VTI

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How AI Distorts the Returns of Vanguard's Largest ETFs: VOO vs. VTI

The recent returns of VOO and VTI appear to contradict conventional wisdom that small and mid-sized stocks outperform large-cap issues over the long term.

By Mitchell MartinForbes team

Two of the five largest U.S. exchange-traded funds are low-cost siblings of the Vanguard family that have not performed as expected over the past five years. THE Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (known by its ticker VOO) sports $473.4 billion of large-cap stocks that make up the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, and the more complex Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) includes more than 3,700 issues additional assets that provide exposure to small and medium-sized U.S. businesses and weigh in at $406.9 billion in assets. Both funds have lowest annual expense ratios of 0.03%.

All of VOO’s assets and approximately 87% of VTI’s holdings (in dollars) are S&P 500 stocks., according to data of the ETF Research Centre. This means that VTI is somewhat less exposed to the S&P 500, particularly the more valuable members of that index. Jeff DeMaso, editor-in-chief of Vanguard Independent Advisor, calculates that around 31% of VOO’s portfolio is represented by stock market darling Nvidia, alongside Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet and Tesla. VTI’s exposure is only 27%.

Alongside its thinner holdings in the S&P 500, VTI holds positions – each representing about 0.3% of its assets – in smaller companies like homebuilder Toll Brothers, retailer Dick’s Sporting Goods and Robinhood Markets, the discount brokerage.

THE RIVAL BROTHERS OF VANGUARD

Behemoths VOO and VTI have similar portfolios, but VOO has more large-cap technologies driving the market.

In theory, this diversity should be a good thing. Large-cap company returns have dragged those of small companies on the stock market since the 1920s, with the largest companies earning around 10% compared to 12% for their smaller counterparts. There are several possible explanations for the outperformance of small stocks, but the basic concept is that they are inherently riskier and therefore investors demand higher long-term returns for holding them, as authors Roger G. Ibbotson and James P. Harrington in the 2021 work. edition of Stocks, Bonds, Notes and Inflation. “It is unclear,” they added, “whether this is due to size itself or other factors closely related or correlated with size.”

However, in the competition between Vanguard funds, the addition of small stocks in VTI does not appear to have led to better performance over the past decade than large caps alone – at least at first glance. Fact sheets on both investments show VOO beat VTI for each of the latest 1-year, 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year periods through March 31, although both funds saw significant gains in all of those periods. The disparity this calendar year is particularly large, with VOO to come back 15.3% based on net asset value until June 21 against. 13.5% for VTI. Much of this outperformance occurred in the current quarter.

When comparing fund returns for specific time periods, the start and end dates can have a significant effect on the results. To give a fairer picture, investors can consult sliding returns, which take into account each year’s annual results over a set period of time rather than simply measuring from start date to finish. Since VOO only started in 2010, Forbes asked Vanguard to provide 10-year rolling data whose early years were based on portfolios of similar mutual funds rather than the ETF itself .

BIGGER LOOKS BETTER

Historical performance of the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) and the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI)

Seen this way, over the 10 years through 2023, each fund had five times the best return and all gains were consecutive streaks. VTI prevailed from 2014 to 2018 and VOO performed best from 2019 to 2023. Measured another way, investors who invested equal amounts in both funds once a year over the past 10 calendar years n would have only had an advance of around 3% in VOO. , and he only took the lead in 2021.

The reason why VOO did better? America’s biggest tech companies are in tears.

“Large-cap stocks, primarily growth-oriented technology stocks, posted exceptional returns and paced the market, helping VOO outperform VTI,” Mo’ath Almahasneh, associate research analyst at the fund Morningstar specialist, tells Forbes by email. He notes that VTI’s previous outperformance dates back to the early 2000s. Indeed, Vanguard’s rolling data shows that VTI streak starting in 2005 and spanning 14 consecutive years before VOO took over.

VOO’s recent strength has come from technological advances made during the Covid-19 pandemic, when lockdowns and working from home encouraged greater use of online services. As this advantage diminished, it was replaced by an enthusiastic embrace of artificial intelligence (AI). “The key theme for returns today is clearly anything that stands to benefit from the latest developments in artificial intelligence,” says Eric Compton, Morningstar’s director of equity research for the technology sector.

The star child is Nvidiawhose chips developed for computer graphics have found new uses in AI, which explains how the company became the first stake in VOO and why the slightest exposure of VTI harms the fund.

CONTINENTAL RETURNS CHANGE THE PICTURE

On a 10-year rolling basis, VOO’s outperformance is not as impressive

One effect of this reduced allocation to large-cap tech is that Morningstar grants VTI a three-star rating, compared to VOO’s best five-star review. But this rating is retrospective, explains Almahasneh, and is due to the limited performance that reflects the distribution of allocations. It underlines the forward-looking orientation of the company Medal system, which classifies both ETFs as gold, meaning they are expected to add the most value among similar funds over a period of at least five years.

The question for investors considering the two ETFs — or any other similar choice between a broad-market fund and one with more exposure to big tech companies — is how sustainable large-cap outperformance can be.

“A few factors could slow the group’s high-flying returns,” Morningstar’s Compton told Forbes via email. “The first element is simply the current valuations, which already include solid growth for the main beneficiaries of AI. For example, we believe that many of the obvious beneficiaries of hardware AI are fully valued, and in some cases overvalued. This could lead to reduced gains, or even decline, in the high-flying AI sector. But probably not today or tomorrow, Compton adds.

“In the short term, we do not expect this to happen as many key growth drivers, such as GPU sales for Nvidia, appear to be de-risked in the coming quarters given current order books, “but if the outlook starts to show unexpected deceleration, be careful,” he says. NvidiaGraphics processing units, a type of computer chip, are widely used to power hardware for artificial intelligence as well as for Bitcoin mining.

On the other hand, technological innovation is one of the reasons why the American economy continues to grow. faster than those of other developed countries.

“To the extent that future technological innovation continues to favor leaders and consolidated markets,” Compton says, “large companies can be expected to maintain their dominance.”

This would be a plus for VOO, but it requires a lot of upside to maintain outperformance based on the technology components of the S&P 500. Given the modest yield difference between the two funds and the fact that VOO trades at 26 .1 times earnings at the end of May versus 25.1 for VTI, one would either have to have great confidence in the ability of the large-cap technology sector to continue to dominate the market, or have considerable contempt for the idea that small stocks will outperform over the long term.

Vanguard itself doesn’t like to comment on the market, but spokesperson Michael Nolan provides a macroeconomic outlook that would give VTI at least a slight edge: “Over the next 10 years, Vanguard expects that the average annual return of large-cap US stocks is between 3.1% and 5.1%, and US small-cap stocks are between 4.3% and 6.3%.

For DeMaso of Independent Vanguard Advisor, VTI has a slight edge. “If I were choosing one today, I would lean towards Total Stock Market,” he told Forbes via email, “since the tech giants can’t keep the market going forever. In other words, smaller stocks will ultimately outperform. Don’t ask me when!

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ETFs

Missed the Bull Market Resumption? 3 ETFs to Help You Build Wealth for Decades

FinCrypto Staff

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Motley Fool

The market’s rebound from the 2022 bear market was not only unexpected. It was also bigger than expected. S&P 500 The stock price is up 60% from the bear market low, despite no clear signs at the time that such a rally was in the works. Chances are you missed at least part of this current rally.

If so, don’t be discouraged: you’re in good company. You’re also far from financially ruined. While you can’t go back and make up for the missed opportunity, for long-term investors, the growth potential is much greater.

If you want to make sure you don’t miss the next big bull run, you might want to tweak your strategy a bit. This time around, you might try buying fewer stocks and focusing more on exchange traded funds (or ETFs), which are often easier to hold when things get tough for the overall market.

With that in mind, here’s a closer look at three very different ETFs to consider buying that could – collectively – complement your portfolio brilliantly.

Let’s start with the basics: dividend growth

Most investors naturally favor growth, choosing growth stocks to achieve that goal. And the strategy usually works. However, most long-term investors may not realize that they can get the same type of net return with boring dividend stocks like the ones held in the portfolio. Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (NYSEMKT: VIG) which reflects the S&P US Dividend Growth Index.

As the name suggests, this Vanguard fund and its underlying index hold stocks that not only pay consistent dividends, but also have a history of consistently increasing dividends. To be included in the S&P US Dividend Growers Index, a company must have increased its dividend every year for at least the past 10 years. In most cases, however, they have been doing so for much longer.

The ETF’s current dividend yield of just under 1.8% isn’t exactly exciting. In fact, it’s so low that investors might wonder how this fund is keeping up with the broader market, let alone growth stocks. What’s being grossly underestimated here is the sheer magnitude of these stocks. dividend growthOver the past 10 years, its dividend per share has nearly doubled, and more than tripled from 15 years ago.

The reason is that solid dividend stocks generally outperform their non-dividend-paying counterparts. Calculations by mutual fund firm Hartford indicate that since 1973, S&P 500 stocks with a long history of dividend growth have averaged a single-digit annual return, compared with a much more modest 4.3% annual gain for non-dividend-paying stocks, and an average annual return of just 7.7% for an equal-weighted version of the S&P 500. The numbers confirm that there’s a lot to be said for reliable, consistent income.

The story continues

Then add capital appreciation through technology

That said, there’s no particular reason why your portfolio can’t also hold something a little more volatile than a dividend-focused holding. If you can stomach the volatility that’s sure to continue, take a stake in the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQ).

This Invesco ETF (often called the “cubes” or the triple-Q) is based on the Nasdaq-100 index. Typically, this index consists of 100 of the Nasdaq Composite IndexThe index is one of the largest non-financial indices at any given time. It is updated quarterly, although extreme imbalance situations may result in unplanned rebalancing of the index.

That’s not what makes this fund a must-have for many investors, though. It turns out that most high-growth tech companies choose to list their shares through the Nasdaq Sotck exchange rather than other exchanges like the New York Stock Exchange or the American Stock ExchangeNames like Apple, MicrosoftAnd Nvidia are not only Nasdaq-listed securities. They are also the top holdings of this ETF, with Amazon, Meta-platformsand Google’s parent company AlphabetThese are of course some of the highest-yielding stocks on the market in recent years.

This won’t always be the case. Just as companies like Nvidia and Apple have squeezed other names out of the index to make room for their stocks, these current names could also be replaced by other names (although it will likely be a while before that happens). It’s the proverbial life cycle of the market.

This shift, however, will likely be driven by technology companies that are offering revolutionary products and services. Owning a stake in the Invesco QQQ Trust is a simple, low-cost way to ensure you’re invested in at least most of their stocks at the perfect time.

Don’t forget indexing, but try a different approach

Finally, while Triple-Q and Vanguard Dividend Appreciation funds are smart ways to diversify your portfolio over the long term, the good old indexing strategy still works. In other words, rather than risk underperforming the market by trying to beat it, stick to tracking the long-term performance of a broad stock index.

Most investors will opt for something like the SPDR S&P 500 Exchange Traded Fund (NYSEMKT:SPY), which of course mirrors the large-cap S&P 500 index. And if you already own one, great: stick with it.

If and when you have some spare cash to put to good use, consider starting a mid-cap funds as the iShares Core S&P Mid-Cap ETF (NYSEMKT: IJH) instead. Why? Because you’ll likely get better results with this ETF than you will with large-cap index funds. Over the past 30 years, S&P 400 Mid-Cap Index significantly outperformed the S&P 500.

^MID Chart

^MID Chart

The disparate degree of gains actually makes sense. While no one disputes the solid foundations on which most S&P 500 companies are built, they are in many ways victims of their own size: It’s hard to get bigger when you’re already big. This is in contrast to the mid-cap companies that make up the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index. These organizations have moved past their rocky, shaky early years and are just entering their era of high growth. Not all of them will survive this phase, but companies like Advanced microsystems And Super microcomputer Those that survive end up being incredibly rewarding to their patient shareholders.

Should You Invest $1,000 in iShares Trust – iShares Core S&P Mid-Cap ETF Right Now?

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Consider when Nvidia I made this list on April 15, 2005… if you had $1,000 invested at the time of our recommendation, you would have $791,929!*

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John Mackey, former CEO of Amazon’s Whole Foods Market, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Randi Zuckerberg, former director of market development and spokesperson for Facebook and sister of Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. James Brumley has positions in Alphabet. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Advanced Micro Devices, Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Vanguard Specialized Funds – Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF. The Motley Fool recommends Nasdaq and recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a position in Advanced Micro Devices, Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Vanguard Specialized Funds – Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF. The Motley Fool recommends Nasdaq and recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. disclosure policy.

Missed the Bull Market Resumption? 3 ETFs to Help You Build Wealth for Decades was originally published by The Motley Fool

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This Simple ETF Could Turn $500 a Month Into $1 Million

FinCrypto Staff

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This Simple ETF Could Turn $500 a Month Into $1 Million

This large-cap ETF offers investors the potential for above-market returns while minimizing risk.

It’s always inspiring to hear stories of people who invested in a company and made tons of money as the company grew and became successful. While these stories are a testament to the power of investing, they can also be misleading. That’s not because it doesn’t happen often, but because you don’t have to make a big splash on a single company to make a lot of money in the stock market.

Invest regularly in exchange traded funds (AND F) is a great way to build wealth. ETFs allow you to invest in dozens, hundreds, and sometimes thousands of companies in a single investment. For investors looking for an ETF that can help them become millionaires, look no further than the Vanguard Growth ETFs (VUG 0.61%).

A history of outperforming the market

Since its launch in January 2004, this ETF has outperformed the market (based on S&P 500 Back), with an average total return of around 11.6%. The returns are even more impressive when looking back over the past decade, with the ETF posting an average total return of around 15.7%.

Total VUG Performance Level data by YCharts

The ETF’s past success doesn’t mean it will continue on this path, but for the sake of illustration, let’s take a middle ground and assume it averages about 13% annual returns over the long term. Averaging those returns, monthly investments of $500 could top the $1 million mark in just over 25 years.

Assuming (emphasis on the word “assume”) that the ETF continues to generate an average total return of 15.7% over the past decade, investing $500 a month could get you past $1 million in about 23 years. At an annual return of 11.6%, that would take nearly 28 years.

There is no way to predict the future performance of the ETF, but the most important thing is the power of time and Compound profit. Earning $1 million by saving alone is a difficult and unachievable task for most people. However, it becomes much more achievable if you give yourself time and make regular investments, no matter how small.

So why choose the Vanguard Growth ETF?

This ETF can offer investors the best of both worlds. On the one hand, since it only contains large cap stocksIt offers more stability and less volatility than you typically find with smaller growth stocks. At the other end, the focus on growth means it is built with the goal of outperforming the market.

Investing involves a tradeoff between risk and return, and this ETF falls somewhere in the middle for the most part. That’s not just because it only contains large-cap stocks. It’s also because large-cap stocks are leading the way. Here are the ETF’s top 10 holdings:

  • Microsoft: 12.60%
  • Apple: 11.51%
  • Nvidia: 10.61%
  • Alphabet (both share classes): 7.54%
  • Amazon: 6.72%
  • Meta-platforms: 4.21%
  • Eli Lilly: 2.88%
  • You’re here: 1.98%
  • Visa: 1.72%

The Vanguard Growth ETF is not as diversified as other broad ETFs, with the top 10 holdings making up nearly 60% of the fund and the “The Magnificent Seven” with stocks accounting for about 55%. However, many of these companies (particularly mega-cap technology stocks) have been among the best performers in the stock market over the past decade and still have great growth opportunities ahead of them.

MSFT Total Return Level Chart

MSFT Total Return Level data by YCharts

Big tech stocks are expected to continue to see growth in areas such as cloud computing, artificial intelligenceand cybersecurity; Eli Lilly will benefit from advances in biotechnologyTesla is one of the leaders in electric vehicles, which are still in the early stages of development; and Visa is expected to be one of the forerunners as the world moves toward more digital payments.

ETF concentration adds risk, especially if Microsoft, Apple or Nvidia is experiencing a slowdownBut these companies are well positioned to drive long-term growth despite any short-term setbacks that may arise. Consistent investments over time in the Vanguard Growth ETF should pay off for investors.

Randi Zuckerberg, former head of market development and spokesperson for Facebook and sister of Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Stefon Walters has positions in Apple and Microsoft. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, Vanguard Index Funds-Vanguard Growth ETF, and Visa. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a position in shares of Apple and Microsoft. disclosure policy.

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Ethereum ETFs Could Bring in $1 Billion a Month

FinCrypto Staff

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Kraken Executive: Ethereum ETFs Could Amass $1B Monthly

In a recent interview with Bloomberg, Kraken’s chief strategy officer Thomas Perfumo predicted that Ethereum ETFs could attract between $750 million and $1 billion in monthly investments.

“Market sentiment is being priced in. I think the market has priced in something like $750 million to $1 billion of net inflows into Ethereum ETF products each month,” Perfumo said.

In the interviewPerfumo noted that if inflows exceed expectations, it could provide strong support to the industry and potentially drive Ethereum to new record highs.

This creates positive support for the industry, if we go beyond that, note that Bitcoin was at a rate above $2.5 billion

He said

Moreover, the hype around Ethereum ETFs has already sparked some optimism among investors. After the SEC approved the 19b-4 filing, Ethereum’s price jumped 22%, attracting investment into crypto assets.

This price movement shows how sensitive the market is to regulatory changes and the growth potential once ETFs are approved.

Perfumo also highlighted other factors supporting current market sentiment, including the upcoming US elections and a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Recent US CPI data suggests disinflation on a monthly and annual basis, with some traditional firms predicting rate cuts as early as September.

These broader economic factors, combined with developments in the crypto space, are shaping the overall market outlook.

Regarding Kraken’s strategy, Perfumo highlighted the exchange’s goal of driving cryptocurrency adoption through strategic initiatives. When asked about rumors of Kraken going public, he reiterated that the company’s intention is instead to broaden cryptocurrency adoption.

Read also : Invesco, Galaxy Cut Ether ETF Fees to 0.25% in Competitive Market

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Kraken Executive Expects Ethereum ETF Launch to “Lift All Boats”

FinCrypto Staff

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Kraken exec expects Ethereum ETF launch to ‘lift all boats’

Kraken Chief Strategy Officer Thomas Perfumemo said: Ethereum ETFs (ETH) could help the crypto sector while commenting on political developments in the United States.

On July 12, Perfumo told Bloomberg that spot Ethereum ETFs would attract capital flows while drawing attention to crypto, noting:

“It’s a rising tide, which lifts the whole history of the boat.”

Perfumo further explained that the final value of Ethereum “depends on the Ethereum ETF.”

He said the cryptocurrency market is “pricing in” between $750 million and $1 billion in net inflows into Ethereum products on a monthly basis, which would imply that Ethereum could reach all-time highs between $4,000 and $5,000.

Perfumo also compared expectations to Bitcoin’s all-time high in March, which he called a “silent spike” that occurred without any evidence of millions of new investors entering the industry.

Political evolution

Perfumo also commented on political developments. At the beginning of the interview, he said that the results of the US elections “will set the tone for policymaking and the legislative agenda for the next four years.”

He also stressed the importance of legislative action and clarity and noted that recent developments show bipartisan support in Congress.

The House recently voted to pass the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act (FIT21) and attempted to repeal controversial SEC accounting rules with the Senate. However, the president Joe Biden Chosen to veto The resolution.

Perfume said:

“Even if you encounter obstacles at the executive level, [there’s] “There is still good progress to come.”

He added that the Republican Party appears “more pro-crypto.” [and] “more progressive” on the issue, noting Donald Trump plans to attend the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville.

Trump has also made numerous statements in support of pro-crypto policy, including at recent campaign events in Wisconsin And San Francisco.

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