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Fed Study Offers New Clues That Help Explain U.S. Gloomy Mood

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Fed Study Offers New Clues That Help Explain U.S. Gloomy Mood

An enduring oddity of Joe Biden’s presidency is that consumer confidence is weak and Biden poor approval ratingsdespite record job gains It is solid economic growth.

So, what is happening? A new Federal Reserve Analysis of Domestic Finances offers some clues.

In its annual consumer survey, the Fed found that 72% said they were “at least okay” with their finances, meaning people were “living comfortably” (33%) or “doing well” (39%).

This is close to the 2022 level of 73%, but is down sharply from 2021’s 78% and matches the low reached in April 2020. The last full year of data in which this share of consumers said they were “at least well ” it was 2016.

And the share of Americans who feel worse than they did a few years ago — even if that number increases slightly — could determine whether voters in this year’s presidential election think Biden deserves another term.

Here are four insights from the Fed’s latest analysis.

As noted previously, the best level of financial fitness reported by consumers during the past 11 years occurred in 2021, when 78% said they were at least in good health. The second best level came in July 2020, with 77%. But it wasn’t because the economy was growing.

In 2020, the COVID pandemic was raging and many Americans were stuck at home. Things improved in 2021 after vaccines began rolling out, but the economy only fully recovered from the COVID setback in mid-2022.

Here’s what else was happening in 2020 and 2021: Americans received huge amounts of stimulus money, including government checkshelp for businesses, tax breaks for parents, and payment suspensions for student loan borrowers.

President Joe Biden speaks about the PACT Act at the Westwood Park YMCA, Tuesday, May 21, 2024, in Nashua, NH (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

President Joe Biden speaks about the PACT Act at the Westwood Park YMCA, Tuesday, May 21, 2024, in Nashua, NH (AP Photo/Alex Brandon) (ASSOCIATED PRESS)

Those programs are basically over. Many Americans banked extra money during the pandemic, but economists think this “surplus savings” are now completely exhausted.

What consumers may actually be saying is that they now feel worse off compared to the COVID years, when unprecedented amounts of federal aid produced an abnormal and temporary bubble of financial security.

The problem for Biden is a recent bias on the part of voters, which means many people will not make an accurate comparison of their well-being now compared to pre-COVID levels.

They will simply feel the deterioration of the days when “stimulating checks” reinforced their bank balances and blamed whoever was responsible.

One notable group that has gotten worse over the past year is parents.

The share who said they were “fine” financially fell to 64% in 2023 from 69% in 2022. Everyone else, excluding parents, remained the same at 75%.

The story continues

From 2021 to 2023, the share of parents who said they were “fine” fell by 11 percentage points. Among the group that represents everyone else, it dropped only four points.

This could reflect a stimulus measure that substantially increased the child tax creditbut expired at the end of 2021.

Census Bureau data shows the child poverty rate fell to 5.2% in 2021 from 9.7% in 2020 – then jumped to 12.4% in 2022.

Most experts believe these huge swings come from intermittent COVID stimulus, including the expansion of the child tax credit. Biden and many Democrats want to make this expansion permanent, but I couldn’t get the votes in Congress.

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In the Fed survey, 35% of respondents cited inflation as a problem and the Fed highlighted food prices as a particular concern.

“When describing the challenges related to inflation, many people mentioned the cost of food and groceries,” the report explains. This is similar to findings from a November report Yahoo Finance-Ipsos Research in which 67% of respondents said food inflation was hurting them the most. Gasoline came in second place, with just 15%.

Food prices have moderated, with the annual inflation rate now just 1.1%.

However, as most consumers know, food prices have risen 21% over the past four years and are unlikely to fall again. Consumers are largely forced to pay these higher prices.

The biggest improvement from 2022 to 2023 was an increase among non-retirees who say their retirement savings plan is on track. That figure rose from 31% to 34%, and is likely higher now given the stock market’s rally over the past six months.

As for retirees, they are doing very well, with 80% saying they are doing well financially. This is the best of any demographic group in the study.

If they were the only ones voting in 2024, Biden could be in very good shape.

Rick Newman is a senior columnist for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on Twitter at @rickjnewman.

Click here for political news related to trade and monetary policies that will shape tomorrow’s stock prices.

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Breakfast on Wall Street: The Week Ahead

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Wall Street Breakfast profile picture

The spotlight next week will shift somewhat to the Federal Reserve’s second-quarter earnings season and monetary policy. Market watchers will be treated to results from several major names, including Dow 30 components Goldman Sachs (GS), UnitedHealth (UNH), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and American Express (AXP), along with streaming giant Netflix (NFLX).

The Fed will still attract some attention as investors will be eager to hear from a packed lineup of central bank speakers just before the policy meeting lockout period.

In terms of the economic calendar, after fifteen days of labor market and inflation indicators, activity data will gain momentum in the form of the latest retail sales and industrial production reports.

Earnings Highlight: Monday, July 15 – Goldman Sachs (GS) and BlackRock (Black). See the full earnings calendar.

Earnings Highlight: Tuesday, July 16 – UnitedHealth (UNH), Bank of America (BAC), Progressive (PGR), Morgan Stanley (IN), PNC Financial (PNC) and JB Hunt Transport (JBHT). See the full earnings calendar.

Earnings Highlight: Wednesday, July 17 – Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), US Bancorp (USB), Morgan Children (KMI), United Airlines (UAL) and Ally Financial (ALLY). See the full earnings calendar.

Earnings Highlight: Thursday, July 18 – Netflix (NFLX), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Black stone (BX), Domino’s pizza (ZDP) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM). See the full earnings calendar.

Earnings Highlight: Friday, July 19 – American Express (AXP), Halliburton (THANKS) and Travelers (VRT (return to recoverable value)) See the full earnings calendar.

IPO Observation: Hospital and healthcare clinic operator Ardent Health Partners (TARDT), insurance service provider Twfg (TWFG) and the biotechnology company Lirum Therapeutics (LRTX) are expected to price their IPOs and begin trading next week. The analyst quiet period ends at Rectitude (RECT) to free up analysts to publish ratings.

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Trump shooting: Gold could hit record high, dollar and cryptocurrencies set to jump

FinCrypto Staff

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Police cars outside the residence of Thomas Matthew Crooks, the alleged shooter at a Trump rally on Saturday, investigate the area in Pennsylvania. In the aftermath of the incident, one rally attendee was killed, two rally attendees are in critical condition and Donald Trump suffered a non-fatal gunshot wound. The shooter is dead after being killed by the United States Secret Service. (Photo by Kyle Mazza/Anadolu via Getty Images)

Police cars outside the residence of Thomas Matthew Crooks, the suspected shooter at a Trump rally on Saturday, investigate the area in Pennsylvania. Following the incident, one rally attendee was killed, two rally attendees are in critical condition and Donald Trump suffered a non-fatal gunshot wound. The shooter is dead after being shot dead by the United States Secret Service. (Photo by Kyle Mazza/Anadolu via Getty Images)

Investors will initially favor traditional safe-haven assets and may lean toward trades more closely tied to former President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the White House after he survived an assassination attempt, according to market watchers.

“There will undoubtedly be some protectionist or safe-haven flows into Asia early this morning,” said Nick Twidale, chief market analyst at ATFX Global Markets. “I suspect gold could test all-time highs, we’ll see the yen being bought and the dollar, and flows into Treasuries as well.”

Early market commentary suggested Trump’s shooting at a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday could also prompt traders to increase his likelihood of success in the November election. His support for looser fiscal policy and higher tariffs is generally seen as likely to benefit the dollar and weaken Treasuries.

An indicator of market sentiment heading into the weekend: Bitcoin surged above $60,000, likely reflecting Trump’s pro-crypto stance.

Other assets positively linked to the so-called Trump trade include stocks of energy companies, private prisons, credit card companies and health insurers.

Traders will also be closely watching market measures of expected volatility on Monday, such as those in the tariff-sensitive Chinese yuan and Mexican peso, which have begun to price in the U.S. vote.

Trump said he was shot in the right ear after a shooting at his rally. His campaign said in a statement that he was “fine” after the incident, which prompted him to rush off the stage.

“Currencies will be the first major market on Monday in Asia to react to the weekend’s shots. There’s potential for extra volatility, and getting a clear reading could be especially difficult because liquidity will be hurt by Japan’s national holiday,” said Garfield Reynolds, Asia team leader for Bloomberg Markets Live.

Strategists had already expected a volatile run-up to the election, particularly as Democrats are still agonizing over President Joe Biden’s candidacy after his poor performance in last month’s debate raised questions about his age. Investors were also grappling with the possibility that the election could end in a drawn-out dispute or political violence.

But there is little precedent for events like those in Pennsylvania. When President Ronald Reagan was shot four decades ago, the stock market plunged before closing early. The next day, March 31, 1981, the S&P 500 rose more than 1% and benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell 9 basis points to 13.13%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Bond investors should pay particular attention as the attack is likely to boost Trump’s election chances and ultimately lead to concerns about the fiscal outlook, according to Marko Papic, chief strategist at California-based BCA Research Inc.

“The bond market must at some point become aware of President Trump’s greater chances of winning the White House than any of his rivals,” Papic wrote. “And I continue to believe that as his chances increase, so too must the likelihood of a bond market revolt.”

Kyle Rodda, senior financial markets analyst at Capital.com, said he was seeing client flows into Bitcoin and gold following the shooting.

“This news marks a turning point in American policy norms,” he said. “For markets, it means safe-haven trades, but more tilted toward non-traditional safe-havens.”

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Latest Business News Live Updates Today, July 11, 2024

FinCrypto Staff

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Latest Business News Live Updates Today, July 11, 2024

Follow us for stories on Bill Gates, Elon Musk, Mukesh Ambani, Gautam Adani as we bring you everything that’s happening in the business world. Follow the latest gold and silver prices here too. Stay in the know on all things business with us.

Latest news on July 11, 2024: Airtel says its new Xstream Fiber plans bundle over 350 live TV channels (Official Photo) (Reuters) Disclaimer: This is an AI-generated live blog and has not been edited by Hindustan Times staff.

Follow all the updates here:

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    Business News LIVE Updates: TCS Q1 results meet estimates: Net profit up 9%, ₹10 dividend declared

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    Business News LIVE Updates: Indian companies falsified generic Viagra data to get approval, says US FDA: Report

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    LIVE business news updates: Amazon could face investigation over treatment of UK food suppliers, watchdog says

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    Business News LIVE Updates: Amazon India employees on working conditions: Made to stand for hours, bathroom breaks not allowed

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    LIVE Business News Updates: UK overhauls listing rules in bid to attract IPOs to London: What has changed?

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    LIVE Business News Updates: Yes Bank shares rise after Moody’s revises outlook to ‘positive’ from ‘stable’

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News / Business / Latest Business News Live Updates Today, July 11, 2024

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Jio Financial share price: Should you buy this Reliance group stock on Monday ahead of Q1 FY2024 results?

FinCrypto Staff

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Jio Financial share price: Should you buy this Reliance group stock on Monday ahead of Q1 FY2024 results?

Q1 2024 Results: Jio Financial Share Price will be in focus on Monday as the Reliance Group company has a fixed board meeting on July 15, 2024 to consider and approve the company’s unaudited standalone and consolidated financial results. Trust Group company informed about the Q1 2024 Results date on Wednesday last week via an exchange filing. According to stock market experts, Jio Financial Services Limited is poised to deliver impressive Q1 results for FY25 on solid operating income. They have forecast a healthy QoQ PAT for the company in Q1 FY25.

Jio Financial Services News

Speaking on the Jio Financial Services Q1 2024 results, Manish Chowdhury, Head of Research, StoxBox, said, “We believe Jio Financial Services is poised to deliver impressive results in Q1FY25 aided by its operating income, which is likely to show robust growth driven by strong investment income, which in turn should lead to healthy PAT growth on a sequential basis. Jio Financial Services continues to make strategic moves such as launching digital products and expanding its ecosystem, with a clear focus on future growth. The company has announced plans to introduce products for lending against stocks and mutual funds, leveraging Jio’s large user base, which could be a significant growth driver in the coming quarters.”

“Furthermore, with the NBFC receiving RBI approval to become a primary investment company, Jio Financial Services is well-positioned to unlock value from its investments. Overall, we expect the company to report robust numbers in the upcoming quarter,” the StoxBox expert added.

Jio Financial Stock Target Price

Speaking about the technical outlook of Jio Financial share price, Ganesh Dongre, Senior Manager, Technical Research at Anand Rathi, said, “Jio Financial Services share price is poised to make a fresh high at the ₹260 apiece level. If the stock breaks above this mark, the Reliance Group stock could make a fresh high by touching the ₹290-₹295 zone. Hence, those with Jio Finance stock in their portfolio are advised to stick to the script by keeping a stop loss at ₹205. If the stock breaks above ₹260 decisively, then one can upgrade the stop loss at ₹240 for the near-term target of ₹295.”

On the advice to new buyers regarding Jio Financial stock, Ganesh Dongre said, “New buyers are advised to wait for the breakout. Once the stock breaks above ₹260, one can buy this Reliance Group stock at the short term target of ₹295, keeping a stop loss of ₹240 apiece.”

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or brokerage firms, and not of Mint. Investors are advised to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions.

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