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Drop in sales of new homes in the US; offer in over 16 years
By Lucia Mutikani
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Sales of new U.S. single-family homes fell to a six-month low in May as a jump in mortgage rates weighed on demand, offering further evidence that the housing market’s recovery was underway. wavering.
But the pain caused by the biggest drop in sales in more than a year and a half, reported by the Commerce Department on Wednesday, has been eased by a sharp upward revision to April data, which now shows sales are rising instead. to fall, as previously estimated. . The offer was the largest in more than 16 years.
The housing market has been the sector hardest hit by the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes since March 2022. However, it emerged from the crisis starting in the third quarter of last year, when an acute shortage of older homes drove the demand for New construction.
The resurgence in mortgage rates also hurt sales of previously owned homes and residential construction.
“As it stands, today’s report will be further evidence for the Fed that monetary policy is tight and it will be time to start cutting rates in the coming months,” said Richard de Chazal, macro analyst at William Blair.
New home sales fell 11.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 619,000 units last month, the lowest level since November, the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau reported. The percentage drop was the biggest since September 2022.
The sales pace for April was revised to 698,000 units, a nine-month high, from the previously reported 634,000 units.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast new home sales, which account for 13.1% of U.S. home sales, would reach a rate of 640,000 units.
Sales of new homes are recorded at the time the contract is signed, which makes them a leading indicator of the real estate market. They, however, can be volatile from month to month. Sales fell 16.5% year-on-year in May.
Residential investment recorded double-digit growth in the first quarter, contributing to the economy’s 1.3% annualized growth rate. Goldman Sachs economists lowered their gross domestic product estimate for the second quarter to a 1.8% pace based on the data, from a rate of 1.9%.
The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hit a six-month high of 7.22% in early May before falling back to 7.03% by the end of the month, data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac showed.
Financial markets expect the Fed to begin cutting rates in September, although policymakers have recently adopted a more aggressive outlook. The US central bank has maintained its benchmark overnight interest rate in the range of 5.25%-5.50% since July. It has increased its policy rate by 525 basis points since March 2022.
The story continues
Stocks on Wall Street were trading higher. The dollar rose against a basket of currencies. US Treasury prices fell.
BROAD SALES DECLINE
New home sales are likely to remain weak, with a report from the Mortgage Bankers Association on Wednesday showing that home loan applications rose 1% last week on a seasonally adjusted basis from the previous week.
“New home sales may continue to be subdued until we see a more substantial decline in mortgage rates,” said Nancy Vanden Houten, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. “We expect a modest rebound in sales late in the second half of this year, when we expect mortgage rates to fall more decisively below 7% once the Fed’s rate cuts begin.”
Sales plummeted 43.8% in the Northeast and fell 4.5% in the West last month. They plummeted 12.0% in the densely populated South and declined 8.6% in the Midwest, which is seen as a more affordable region.
The average price of new homes fell 0.9% to $417,400 in May from a year earlier. Nearly half of new homes sold last month were priced at less than $399,000.
A survey by the National Association of Home Builders showed last week that the share of builders who cut prices to boost sales in June was the highest in five months. Builders are building smaller homes to try to fit buyers’ budgets.
National housing prices are, however, rising steadily. The Federal Housing Finance Agency reported Tuesday that single-family home prices rose 6.3% from a year ago in April.
There were 481,000 new homes on the market at the end of May, the highest level since January 2008 and up from 474,000 units in April, the Census report showed.
At May’s sales rate, it would take 9.3 months to offset the supply of homes on the market. This was the highest number of months since November 2022 and up from 8.1 months in April. Increasing supply could improve housing affordability.
“The glut of new home listings will likely curb home price increases in the second half of 2024,” said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank. “This will make buying a home a little less unaffordable and will also contribute to lower inflation in 2025.”
(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; editing by Bernadette Baum, Andrea Ricci and Paul Simao)
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Breakfast on Wall Street: The Week Ahead
The spotlight next week will shift somewhat to the Federal Reserve’s second-quarter earnings season and monetary policy. Market watchers will be treated to results from several major names, including Dow 30 components Goldman Sachs (GS), UnitedHealth (UNH), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and American Express (AXP), along with streaming giant Netflix (NFLX).
The Fed will still attract some attention as investors will be eager to hear from a packed lineup of central bank speakers just before the policy meeting lockout period.
In terms of the economic calendar, after fifteen days of labor market and inflation indicators, activity data will gain momentum in the form of the latest retail sales and industrial production reports.
Earnings Highlight: Monday, July 15 – Goldman Sachs (GS) and BlackRock (Black). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Tuesday, July 16 – UnitedHealth (UNH), Bank of America (BAC), Progressive (PGR), Morgan Stanley (IN), PNC Financial (PNC) and JB Hunt Transport (JBHT). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Wednesday, July 17 – Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), US Bancorp (USB), Morgan Children (KMI), United Airlines (UAL) and Ally Financial (ALLY). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Thursday, July 18 – Netflix (NFLX), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Black stone (BX), Domino’s pizza (ZDP) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Friday, July 19 – American Express (AXP), Halliburton (THANKS) and Travelers (VRT (return to recoverable value)) See the full earnings calendar.
IPO Observation: Hospital and healthcare clinic operator Ardent Health Partners (TARDT), insurance service provider Twfg (TWFG) and the biotechnology company Lirum Therapeutics (LRTX) are expected to price their IPOs and begin trading next week. The analyst quiet period ends at Rectitude (RECT) to free up analysts to publish ratings.
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Trump shooting: Gold could hit record high, dollar and cryptocurrencies set to jump
Police cars outside the residence of Thomas Matthew Crooks, the suspected shooter at a Trump rally on Saturday, investigate the area in Pennsylvania. Following the incident, one rally attendee was killed, two rally attendees are in critical condition and Donald Trump suffered a non-fatal gunshot wound. The shooter is dead after being shot dead by the United States Secret Service. (Photo by Kyle Mazza/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Investors will initially favor traditional safe-haven assets and may lean toward trades more closely tied to former President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the White House after he survived an assassination attempt, according to market watchers.
“There will undoubtedly be some protectionist or safe-haven flows into Asia early this morning,” said Nick Twidale, chief market analyst at ATFX Global Markets. “I suspect gold could test all-time highs, we’ll see the yen being bought and the dollar, and flows into Treasuries as well.”
Early market commentary suggested Trump’s shooting at a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday could also prompt traders to increase his likelihood of success in the November election. His support for looser fiscal policy and higher tariffs is generally seen as likely to benefit the dollar and weaken Treasuries.
An indicator of market sentiment heading into the weekend: Bitcoin surged above $60,000, likely reflecting Trump’s pro-crypto stance.
Other assets positively linked to the so-called Trump trade include stocks of energy companies, private prisons, credit card companies and health insurers.
Traders will also be closely watching market measures of expected volatility on Monday, such as those in the tariff-sensitive Chinese yuan and Mexican peso, which have begun to price in the U.S. vote.
Trump said he was shot in the right ear after a shooting at his rally. His campaign said in a statement that he was “fine” after the incident, which prompted him to rush off the stage.
“Currencies will be the first major market on Monday in Asia to react to the weekend’s shots. There’s potential for extra volatility, and getting a clear reading could be especially difficult because liquidity will be hurt by Japan’s national holiday,” said Garfield Reynolds, Asia team leader for Bloomberg Markets Live.
Strategists had already expected a volatile run-up to the election, particularly as Democrats are still agonizing over President Joe Biden’s candidacy after his poor performance in last month’s debate raised questions about his age. Investors were also grappling with the possibility that the election could end in a drawn-out dispute or political violence.
But there is little precedent for events like those in Pennsylvania. When President Ronald Reagan was shot four decades ago, the stock market plunged before closing early. The next day, March 31, 1981, the S&P 500 rose more than 1% and benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell 9 basis points to 13.13%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Bond investors should pay particular attention as the attack is likely to boost Trump’s election chances and ultimately lead to concerns about the fiscal outlook, according to Marko Papic, chief strategist at California-based BCA Research Inc.
“The bond market must at some point become aware of President Trump’s greater chances of winning the White House than any of his rivals,” Papic wrote. “And I continue to believe that as his chances increase, so too must the likelihood of a bond market revolt.”
Kyle Rodda, senior financial markets analyst at Capital.com, said he was seeing client flows into Bitcoin and gold following the shooting.
“This news marks a turning point in American policy norms,” he said. “For markets, it means safe-haven trades, but more tilted toward non-traditional safe-havens.”
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Jio Financial share price: Should you buy this Reliance group stock on Monday ahead of Q1 FY2024 results?
Q1 2024 Results: Jio Financial Share Price will be in focus on Monday as the Reliance Group company has a fixed board meeting on July 15, 2024 to consider and approve the company’s unaudited standalone and consolidated financial results. Trust Group company informed about the Q1 2024 Results date on Wednesday last week via an exchange filing. According to stock market experts, Jio Financial Services Limited is poised to deliver impressive Q1 results for FY25 on solid operating income. They have forecast a healthy QoQ PAT for the company in Q1 FY25.
Jio Financial Services News
Speaking on the Jio Financial Services Q1 2024 results, Manish Chowdhury, Head of Research, StoxBox, said, “We believe Jio Financial Services is poised to deliver impressive results in Q1FY25 aided by its operating income, which is likely to show robust growth driven by strong investment income, which in turn should lead to healthy PAT growth on a sequential basis. Jio Financial Services continues to make strategic moves such as launching digital products and expanding its ecosystem, with a clear focus on future growth. The company has announced plans to introduce products for lending against stocks and mutual funds, leveraging Jio’s large user base, which could be a significant growth driver in the coming quarters.”
“Furthermore, with the NBFC receiving RBI approval to become a primary investment company, Jio Financial Services is well-positioned to unlock value from its investments. Overall, we expect the company to report robust numbers in the upcoming quarter,” the StoxBox expert added.
Jio Financial Stock Target Price
Speaking about the technical outlook of Jio Financial share price, Ganesh Dongre, Senior Manager, Technical Research at Anand Rathi, said, “Jio Financial Services share price is poised to make a fresh high at the ₹260 apiece level. If the stock breaks above this mark, the Reliance Group stock could make a fresh high by touching the ₹290-₹295 zone. Hence, those with Jio Finance stock in their portfolio are advised to stick to the script by keeping a stop loss at ₹205. If the stock breaks above ₹260 decisively, then one can upgrade the stop loss at ₹240 for the near-term target of ₹295.”
On the advice to new buyers regarding Jio Financial stock, Ganesh Dongre said, “New buyers are advised to wait for the breakout. Once the stock breaks above ₹260, one can buy this Reliance Group stock at the short term target of ₹295, keeping a stop loss of ₹240 apiece.”
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or brokerage firms, and not of Mint. Investors are advised to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
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