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Bernstein begins coverage on Bajaj Finance, IndusInd Bank and Muthoot Finance

In a recent note, global brokerage Bernstein highlighted that the Indian banking sector remains robust, with strong credit growth, benign asset quality and healthy margins continuing to fuel impressive compounding stories.
While large private sector banks are seen as clean composition stories due to their continued deposit market share gains and emerging benefits of scale, niche lenders, typically operating as Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) and Finance Companies Housing (HFCs), also present equally attractive presentations. composed stories, he noted.
Expanding coverage of India’s financial sector, the brokerage initiated coverage on three stocks – Bajaj Finance (BAF) with Market-Perform rating; IndusInd Bank (IIB), and Muthoot Finance with superior performance ratings.
According to the brokerage, large segments with a healthy credit demand that is not satisfied by traditional banking products and niche lenders with innovative credit products and business models adapted to these segments have proven to be a perfect match. This combination has driven strong NBFC growth (10-year loan CAGR of 14 percent vs. banks <10 percent) to a size that matches 75 percent of private sector banks, while delivering stellar returns to shareholders along the way, he noted. Bernstein is optimistic about niche lenders that are delving deeper into mass market segments through well-established and differentiated operating models.
Although regulatory arbitrage between NBFCs and banks is on the decline, NBFCs that focus on serving niche segments, especially mass market segments, still have a long growth runway thanks to the still low debt penetration in India, mentioned the broker.
Furthermore, he also stated that niche lenders also offer an effective way to keep up with industry trends. A shift from the consumption cycle to an investment cycle in the economy, a slowdown in consumer credit growth even as selected segments focused on the mass market remain attractive, the start of a rate easing cycle (which favors NBFCs versus banks) and greater regulatory scrutiny within the sector, believes Bernstein. He expects the increased intensity of regulatory scrutiny to continue, but sees that smaller, well-established franchises that drive true financial inclusion will be better positioned in this environment.
In short, it prefers NBFCs that serve an attractive segment/sub-segment through a well-established operating model that is distinct from the traditional banking model.
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Bajaj Finance (Market Performance TP: â‚ą6,800): According to the brokerage, BAF has been a true star in the Indian lending scene, with impeccable execution, but much of that is included in its rich valuations. Enthusiasm for BAF arises from the company’s stellar earnings trajectory (35% EPS CAGR over the decade) thanks to its focus on an attractive and underserved niche in the consumer lending segment. It has shown tremendous execution discipline, delivering over 30% loan book growth over the last decade without any damage to its immaculate asset quality track record.
Management aims to maintain the current level of profitability (ROA of 4.6%-4.8%) and at the same time manage growth of 25-27 percent in the medium term. The broker believes that this would be a challenge even considering BAF’s super execution power.
While BAF anticipates still healthy growth in the future, Bernstein sees room for consensus profit cuts given several headwinds. Weaker growth or lower profitability will lead to an adjustment in valuation multiples which currently imply a high probability of the lender returning to its days of 30%+ EPS growth (30x PE vs. last decade average of 35x) . In short, the company’s business model and execution will remain as strong as ever, but may not be enough to meet very high expectations, he said. Bernstein expects an earnings CAGR of 21 percent (FY24-26) and values ​​BAF at PE (24x FY25E EPS).
IndusInd Bank (Top Performer, TP: â‚ą1,800): Bernstein sees IndusInd as a quasi-NBFC, given its NBFC-like loan portfolio composition and weak deposit franchise. The bank is well positioned for a potential rate easing cycle and has high exposure to attractive segments (commercial vehicles, microfinance).
“When seen as a niche lender (almost NBFC) that has significant exposure to the vehicle segment (25% of its loan book) and microfinance (>10% of loans and 20% of its profits), it looks attractive against many NBFCs, despite a short-term slowdown, would see a huge benefit from the recovery of the investment cycle, while the microfinance segment would gain from the benefits of economic growth spreading across the income pyramid and the policy focus tilting further. towards the ‘Bharat’ segment (i.e. beyond the urban rich)”, explains Bernstein.
The broker also highlighted that, compared to its banking peers, it is the one that will benefit most from a possible rate cut, given its higher percentage of fixed rate loans on the asset side, as well as a higher percentage of loans/deposits wholesale in its liabilities. side. It expects lower risk from its corporate segment, given its gradual shift towards higher-rated companies and the current benign phase in corporate asset quality. Between FY24 and 26E, Bernstein estimates IIB’s ROE at 15 to 16 percent and loan growth at 18 percent and values ​​it at PBx (1.9x FY25E BVPS).
Muthoot Finance (Top performance, TP: â‚ą2,000): Bernstein sees a long and bright road ahead for gold lending, a unique segment in India that arises from Indian families’ insatiable love for gold and its use as collateral for loans, and Muthoot is the best option in this segment.
“Muthoot is a pure play gold loan lender with gold loans forming over 80% of its loan book and has the best operating metrics compared to its peers in the segment. It has delivered very healthy returns over the last decade , as it maintains its focus on a product that has very attractive returns and a healthy growth trajectory (even if cyclical)”, he stated.
In the coming years, Bernstein expects the gold lending segment to benefit from healthy gold prices and a slowdown in alternative lending sources such as unsecured digital loans. In the gold loan segment, growth of public sector banks is seen to moderate, given the review of their operational practices, while one of the largest NBFC (IIFL) is expected to register moderate growth, given the recent regulatory action. Healthy growth would mean that the current cyclically elevated valuation multiple will sustain longer than expected by consensus and therefore our Target Price versus consensus higher, he added.
Bernstein also expects an earnings CAGR of 19% (FY24-26E) and values ​​it at PE (15x FY25E EPS).
Disclaimer: The opinions and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or brokers and not Mint. We advise investors to consult certified experts before making any investment decision.
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Breakfast on Wall Street: The Week Ahead

The spotlight next week will shift somewhat to the Federal Reserve’s second-quarter earnings season and monetary policy. Market watchers will be treated to results from several major names, including Dow 30 components Goldman Sachs (GS), UnitedHealth (UNH), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and American Express (AXP), along with streaming giant Netflix (NFLX).
The Fed will still attract some attention as investors will be eager to hear from a packed lineup of central bank speakers just before the policy meeting lockout period.
In terms of the economic calendar, after fifteen days of labor market and inflation indicators, activity data will gain momentum in the form of the latest retail sales and industrial production reports.
Earnings Highlight: Monday, July 15 – Goldman Sachs (GS) and BlackRock (Black). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Tuesday, July 16 – UnitedHealth (UNH), Bank of America (BAC), Progressive (PGR), Morgan Stanley (IN), PNC Financial (PNC) and JB Hunt Transport (JBHT). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Wednesday, July 17 – Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), US Bancorp (USB), Morgan Children (KMI), United Airlines (UAL) and Ally Financial (ALLY). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Thursday, July 18 – Netflix (NFLX), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Black stone (BX), Domino’s pizza (ZDP) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings Highlight: Friday, July 19 – American Express (AXP), Halliburton (THANKS) and Travelers (VRT (return to recoverable value)) See the full earnings calendar.
IPO Observation: Hospital and healthcare clinic operator Ardent Health Partners (TARDT), insurance service provider Twfg (TWFG) and the biotechnology company Lirum Therapeutics (LRTX) are expected to price their IPOs and begin trading next week. The analyst quiet period ends at Rectitude (RECT) to free up analysts to publish ratings.
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Trump shooting: Gold could hit record high, dollar and cryptocurrencies set to jump

Police cars outside the residence of Thomas Matthew Crooks, the suspected shooter at a Trump rally on Saturday, investigate the area in Pennsylvania. Following the incident, one rally attendee was killed, two rally attendees are in critical condition and Donald Trump suffered a non-fatal gunshot wound. The shooter is dead after being shot dead by the United States Secret Service. (Photo by Kyle Mazza/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Investors will initially favor traditional safe-haven assets and may lean toward trades more closely tied to former President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the White House after he survived an assassination attempt, according to market watchers.
“There will undoubtedly be some protectionist or safe-haven flows into Asia early this morning,” said Nick Twidale, chief market analyst at ATFX Global Markets. “I suspect gold could test all-time highs, we’ll see the yen being bought and the dollar, and flows into Treasuries as well.”
Early market commentary suggested Trump’s shooting at a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday could also prompt traders to increase his likelihood of success in the November election. His support for looser fiscal policy and higher tariffs is generally seen as likely to benefit the dollar and weaken Treasuries.
An indicator of market sentiment heading into the weekend: Bitcoin surged above $60,000, likely reflecting Trump’s pro-crypto stance.
Other assets positively linked to the so-called Trump trade include stocks of energy companies, private prisons, credit card companies and health insurers.
Traders will also be closely watching market measures of expected volatility on Monday, such as those in the tariff-sensitive Chinese yuan and Mexican peso, which have begun to price in the U.S. vote.
Trump said he was shot in the right ear after a shooting at his rally. His campaign said in a statement that he was “fine” after the incident, which prompted him to rush off the stage.
“Currencies will be the first major market on Monday in Asia to react to the weekend’s shots. There’s potential for extra volatility, and getting a clear reading could be especially difficult because liquidity will be hurt by Japan’s national holiday,” said Garfield Reynolds, Asia team leader for Bloomberg Markets Live.
Strategists had already expected a volatile run-up to the election, particularly as Democrats are still agonizing over President Joe Biden’s candidacy after his poor performance in last month’s debate raised questions about his age. Investors were also grappling with the possibility that the election could end in a drawn-out dispute or political violence.
But there is little precedent for events like those in Pennsylvania. When President Ronald Reagan was shot four decades ago, the stock market plunged before closing early. The next day, March 31, 1981, the S&P 500 rose more than 1% and benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell 9 basis points to 13.13%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Bond investors should pay particular attention as the attack is likely to boost Trump’s election chances and ultimately lead to concerns about the fiscal outlook, according to Marko Papic, chief strategist at California-based BCA Research Inc.
“The bond market must at some point become aware of President Trump’s greater chances of winning the White House than any of his rivals,” Papic wrote. “And I continue to believe that as his chances increase, so too must the likelihood of a bond market revolt.”
Kyle Rodda, senior financial markets analyst at Capital.com, said he was seeing client flows into Bitcoin and gold following the shooting.
“This news marks a turning point in American policy norms,” he said. “For markets, it means safe-haven trades, but more tilted toward non-traditional safe-havens.”
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Latest Business News Live Updates Today, July 11, 2024

Follow us for stories on Bill Gates, Elon Musk, Mukesh Ambani, Gautam Adani as we bring you everything that’s happening in the business world. Follow the latest gold and silver prices here too. Stay in the know on all things business with us.
Latest news on July 11, 2024: Airtel says its new Xstream Fiber plans bundle over 350 live TV channels (Official Photo) (Reuters) Disclaimer: This is an AI-generated live blog and has not been edited by Hindustan Times staff.
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 08:44 PM
Business News LIVE Updates: Decoding Airtel’s new Xstream Fiber packages, finding value with Live TV and OTT
- Airtel confirms to HT that the live TV proposition is being delivered using its DTH network, while the bundled streaming subscriptions are an extension of its Xstream Play platform.
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 03:58 PM
Business News LIVE Updates: TCS Q1 results meet estimates: Net profit up 9%, â‚ą10 dividend declared
- TCS’s consolidated revenue rose 5.4% to Rs 626.13 billion in the June quarter. Analysts had expected revenue of Rs 622.07 billion, as per LSEG data.
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 03:51 PM
Business News LIVE Updates: Indian companies falsified generic Viagra data to get approval, says US FDA: Report
- Synapse Labs Pvt. Ltd may have been used in hundreds of drugs that are still available for sale, the report said.
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 03:09 PM
LIVE Business News Updates: Namita Thapar’s emotional post on Emcure IPO listing: ‘Mirza Ghalib sums up my feelings’
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 02:39 PM
LIVE business news updates: Amazon could face investigation over treatment of UK food suppliers, watchdog says
- An Amazon spokesperson said the company has made several improvements for food suppliers since last year’s results.
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 01:39 PM
LIVE Business News Updates: This Bengaluru company aims to launch a ‘space habitat’ by 2027, in talks with SpaceX
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 01:10 PM
Business News LIVE Updates: Amazon India employees on working conditions: Made to stand for hours, bathroom breaks not allowed
- A survey conducted by UNI Global Union with the Amazon India Workers Association had 1,838 participants who alleged appalling working conditions at Amazon facilities in India.
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 12:44 PM
LIVE Business News Updates: UK overhauls listing rules in bid to attract IPOs to London: What has changed?
- The new rules allow companies to carry out more activities without putting them to a shareholder vote, the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority said.
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 12:18 PM
Business News LIVE Updates: Want to send money abroad? Open foreign currency accounts at GIFT City
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 11:30 AM
Business News LIVE Updates: First Abu Dhabi Bank denies interest in acquiring stake in Yes Bank: Report
- The report said the Yes Bank stake sale has attracted interest from Japan, including Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc.
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 11:04 AM
LIVE Business News Updates: TCS Share Price Surges Ahead of Q1 Results: What Brokers Say About the Stock
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 10:22 AM
LIVE Business News Updates: Reliance Jio IPO listing likely in 2025 at $112 billion valuation: Jefferies
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 09:42 AM
LIVE Business News Updates: Yes Bank shares rise after Moody’s revises outlook to ‘positive’ from ‘stable’
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 09:16 AM
Business News LIVE Updates: Sahaj Solar IPO opens today: All you need to know before subscribing to the issue
- Sahaj Solar IPO: The block issue aims to raise â‚ą52.56 crore through issuance of 2.92 million new shares and will close on July 15.
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 08:40 AM
LIVE Business News Updates: Why Analysts Believe India’s Earnings Season May Disappoint Stock Market Investors
- Investors in Indian stocks hoping for a robust earnings season to justify expensive valuations are likely to be disappointed.
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 08:35 AM
LIVE Business News Updates: Elon Musk Says Second Neuralink Brain Implant Will ‘Give People Superpowers’ Within a Week
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 07:59 AM
LIVE Business News Updates: Apple warns Indian iPhone users of possible Pegasus-like ‘spyware attack’
- In April this year, the Indian Computer Emergency Response Team (Cert-In) flagged several vulnerabilities in Apple’s operating system for iPhone and iPad.
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Thu, 11 Jul 2024 07:45 AM
Business News LIVE Updates: US stock markets at record highs led by world’s biggest tech companies
- The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 2.4% to a record high after Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. reported strong quarterly revenue.
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Jio Financial share price: Should you buy this Reliance group stock on Monday ahead of Q1 FY2024 results?
Q1 2024 Results: Jio Financial Share Price will be in focus on Monday as the Reliance Group company has a fixed board meeting on July 15, 2024 to consider and approve the company’s unaudited standalone and consolidated financial results. Trust Group company informed about the Q1 2024 Results date on Wednesday last week via an exchange filing. According to stock market experts, Jio Financial Services Limited is poised to deliver impressive Q1 results for FY25 on solid operating income. They have forecast a healthy QoQ PAT for the company in Q1 FY25.
Jio Financial Services News
Speaking on the Jio Financial Services Q1 2024 results, Manish Chowdhury, Head of Research, StoxBox, said, “We believe Jio Financial Services is poised to deliver impressive results in Q1FY25 aided by its operating income, which is likely to show robust growth driven by strong investment income, which in turn should lead to healthy PAT growth on a sequential basis. Jio Financial Services continues to make strategic moves such as launching digital products and expanding its ecosystem, with a clear focus on future growth. The company has announced plans to introduce products for lending against stocks and mutual funds, leveraging Jio’s large user base, which could be a significant growth driver in the coming quarters.”
“Furthermore, with the NBFC receiving RBI approval to become a primary investment company, Jio Financial Services is well-positioned to unlock value from its investments. Overall, we expect the company to report robust numbers in the upcoming quarter,” the StoxBox expert added.
Jio Financial Stock Target Price
Speaking about the technical outlook of Jio Financial share price, Ganesh Dongre, Senior Manager, Technical Research at Anand Rathi, said, “Jio Financial Services share price is poised to make a fresh high at the ₹260 apiece level. If the stock breaks above this mark, the Reliance Group stock could make a fresh high by touching the ₹290-₹295 zone. Hence, those with Jio Finance stock in their portfolio are advised to stick to the script by keeping a stop loss at ₹205. If the stock breaks above ₹260 decisively, then one can upgrade the stop loss at ₹240 for the near-term target of ₹295.”
On the advice to new buyers regarding Jio Financial stock, Ganesh Dongre said, “New buyers are advised to wait for the breakout. Once the stock breaks above â‚ą260, one can buy this Reliance Group stock at the short term target of â‚ą295, keeping a stop loss of â‚ą240 apiece.”
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or brokerage firms, and not of Mint. Investors are advised to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
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