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Positive Economic News For US Retail, Not So Much Elsewhere

Published

7 months ago

17 June, 2024

FinCrypto Staff

Positive Economic News For US Retail, Not So Much Elsewhere

Retail looks better and better on the surface, but there are still plenty of sharks in the water.

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There was a lot of good news in retail economic indicators this week, particularly for the US. However, there are still plenty of sharks under the water that can bite consumers, and some of those sharks will lead to a very uneven pace of improvements for consumers around the world. Retailers continue to notice that consumers are trading down – and they really mean it this time! – and are taking more action to finally respond to those pressures, while the world continues to be a more dangerous (and scammy place) for retailers and consumers alike. The question about human-generated data for GenAI foundational models got a real mathematical estimate applied to it and came up with a pretty near-term answer, and quick commerce and Amazon Marketplace prove that the more things change, the more they stay the same. Let’s dive in!

Retail Economic Indicators

Unless you were living under a rock, you might have heard that US inflation came in flat month over month and held steady at 3.3% year over year. This was better than expected, and good news after a few months of unexpected price rises. Shelter is still the sticky part – increasing 0.4% for the fourth consecutive month. But energy fell 2.0% over the month, and gasoline fell 3.6% – which is remarkable, going into summer driving season. Combined with the weekly jobs report (initial jobless claims) coming in higher than expected (indicating a possibly slowing labor market), the markets perceived this as good news. While the Fed is not anticipated to cut rates this summer, a rate cut later in the year appears to still be on the table, and the words “soft landing” are showing up more often again in the press.

The good news on inflation came on top of great (for retailers) spending news – the CNBC/Retail Monitor published by NRF found that after a decrease in year over year sales of 0.6% in April, May’s retail sales were up 3.03% year over year. Cores sales, excluding automobiles, gasoline, and restaurants, was up 2.48% during the first five months of the year. I have to point out that none of these numbers beat inflation, but they do come really close and are definitely a boost after anemic April.

What was most interesting In the numbers came from category-specific results – some of the most discretionary spending, like personal care and clothing and accessories all came in well over 5% growth year over year – beating inflation and then some. Big ticket items like electronics and home improvement, where financing the purchase is required more often, still drag in part due to high interest rates.

And in more good news in the US, wholesale prices unexpectedly fell 0.2% in May as well. Normally I don’t pay much attention to things like the Producer Price Index because it can get complicated in interpreting how that really is going to impact consumers – and there is the Consumer Price Index that directly tells us how it impacts consumers anyway. But this one caught my eye this week because we have seen retailers making a big show of cutting prices, and in the end that may be built on a more solid foundation of falling wholesale prices, which would be more lasting than just taking a promotional hit.

In other markets, the news is not quite so good. While the UK consumers have been rallying despite inflation, the weather, and now an election, it seems there is a shark under the water – a loan shark, if you will. In the UK, most mortgages reset their interest rates after 5 years, not 30. Mortgages that reset in 2023 are now a year old, and consumers may have tried to shoulder the increase so far, but it looks like they’re running out of buffer. The Bank of England reports that mortgages in arrears are up 44.5% in the first 3 months of the year vs. a year ago, and is also up 4.2% compared to the last three months of 2023. This is the highest level of recorded arrears since 2014. The really unfortunate part of this is, those resets are going to last for another five years, possibly lengthening the amount of time it takes for UK consumers to get through inflation and interest rates.

And finally, China. It’s a big consumer market – by far the largest in Asia (though India is nipping at its heels). But there are definitely headwinds in the economy. GDP growth is slowing – it averaged 9% since 1978, but in 2023 hit 5.2% and is expected to be 4.5% in 2024. Economists focused on China say consumers are losing confidence in the economy, driven by the troubles in the real estate market. While high home values in the US have kept consumers spending, in China the opposite is happening – consumers see their homes losing value or are underwater vs. what they owe, and combined with slowing income growth, that has undermined their confidence in their future. Chinese consumers are saving more and spending less as a result, in what economics call “demand deflation”.

Retail Tech & Research Data

Placer.ai data reveals one reason behind retailers suddenly finding space to take price cuts: shoppers are not just trading down within stores, they’re actually trading out the stores they visit. Consumers are distinctly shifting their traffic to more discount stores, and retailers are noticing – cutting prices to recapture some of that lost traffic.

Two more research reports this week, both looking at payments. EMarketer found that the P2P payments space (think Venmo, PayPal, CashApp) will grow 14.5% by 2028, to where it will cover the exchange of $1.224 trillion and touch at least three-quarters of smartphone users by that time.

At the same time, another favored consumer form of stored value, gift cards, is getting scammier by the day. The FTC estimates that Americans lost $217 million to gift card scams in 2023, and also points out that is likely an under-reported crime. It’s hard to talk about types of gift card scams without also inspiring new scammers, but at the same time consumers need to be more aware of how gift card scams are executed. It’s getting more sophisticated than “Hi, your CEO asked me ask you to buy $500 in gift cards and send me the numbers” (though that’s still a popular play, now aided and abetted by GenAI). If anyone asks you for the barcode or the PIN on a gift card, you’re getting scammed. It’s gotten bad enough that Walmart has disabled the purchase or redemption of gift cards outside the US. The retailer has also instituted tracking on where a gift card was bought, where it was spent, and how much was at stake. If a gift card magically moves quickly across the US, then they turn it off. The FTC is asking retailers to do more to educate consumers about gift card scams at the point of purchase as a way to help stop the bleeding.

AI & Retail

Michale Kors is buying into Dynamic Yield’s Shopping Muse. Dynamic Yield is a Mastercard company and presumably benefits from Mastercard’s vast consumer purchase data in some way. Shopping Muse makes recommendations based on “contextual and behavioral insights, the retailer’s keywords, visual cues, and the consumer’s own personal intent and affinities.” The pilot showed a 15-20% higher conversion rate than traditional search queries.

I’m not surprised by this at all. As long as you’re monitoring the results closely, I expect to see a lot more of these stories – retailers getting benefits from chatbots. It’s low risk. It’s not right 100% of the time, but it’s good enough (15-20%) that it’s better than nothing. And it’s not likely to come out and recommend 1/8 cup of glue on your pizza or anything like that. But it’s also not going to be good at much else, at least not without introducing a more significant risk that it will start spouting off about glue on pizza. Chatbot. Cool. Shrug.

In the meantime, Epoch AI took a stab at truly estimating when LLM’s will run out of human-generated data. I’ve seen speculation that we’ve already run out, or at least that the data that these models hoover up from the internet is no longer purely human generated (given the number of bots out there spewing things on X, I doubt that this was true beyond maybe the first year of the internet anyway). Epoch’s estimate is more a look at the rate that humans generate data on the internet vs. the consumption these LLM’s require for the next level of improvement. Based on that run rate, they estimate it will happen somewhere between 2026 and 2032, with a closer guess of 2028. We’ve heard repeatedly from computer scientists that synthetic data is no good, so I guess we’ll know the dimensions of the hype part of the AI hype cycle in the next 2-4 years.

Retail Winners and Losers

If you think that retailers and restaurants are cutting prices out of the goodness of their hearts in their bid to help bring inflation down, this article will give you pause. Inflation has been high, but it sure has not been as high as McDonald’s prices have climbed. It takes a look at 9 pretty popular items and found that prices have gone up an average of 100% over the last decade, and in some cases substantially more than that.

If the headline was expected to shock, the outcome of this next story was actually more of a ho-hum. The British Independent Retailers Association is expected to file a GBP 1 billion ($1.3 billion) lawsuit against Amazon, claiming that the company used non-public retailer data in order to sell cheaper (competitive) products to consumers. The non-public retailer data came from its retailers’ sales on Amazon Marketplace. I haven’t been able to tell if they have actually filed the lawsuit – that would make this more important news. But Amazon has been accused of this multiple times, to very little effect. The only difference is this is coming out of the UK, so a potentially different set of laws apply. I can see how Amazon would be sorely tempted to use its data in this way. I can also see how it makes a lot more money off of Marketplace than its own retail margins, so even if it did use this data in this way in its early days, I just don’t know why it would bother now.

Finally, as I am fresh back from a trip to Bengaluru, India, I am particularly sensitive to stories about quick commercecoming out of the country. I saw my own share of Swiggy and Blinkit (among others) branded moped and motorcycle drivers out on the streets with the ubiquitous box-shaped cooler on the back. As one of my colleagues said, you can order your veggies for dinner and get them before you’ve fully heated the pan (10 minutes or less). Goldman Sachs estimates that quick commerce delivery accounted for $5 billion or 45% of India’s $11 billion online grocery market, and it’s forecast to reach $60 billion by 2030, and grow to 70% of the market.

One thing my colleagues wondered (me too) was how they really pull it off. The article reports that Swiggy had 500 warehouses across 25 cities in India in 2023, with plans to reach 750 by April 2025. However, the company seems to be mostly coasting on investment dollars, as it still does not turn a profit, even as revenue has grown to $1 billion. Contrast this experience to that of Getir, which has retrenched only to its home market of Turkey, after expanding to five countries.

At the end of the day, you can’t get past the physical logistics of getting a product from a location to an end consumer. Like China, India can easily have 25 tier-one cities for population density, and it takes us all back to the most basic of quick commerce questions: does this only work in very dense populations? Or, perhaps more pointedly, has anyone truly made a profit on the logistics side of quick commerce, or have they all just ended up burning a lot of investor money trying?

The Bottom Line

So what did we learn this week? The economic icebergs continue to jostle together, hinting that they may be breaking up more and more, to the benefit of consumers and businesses alike. There also seems to be room for retailers to cut prices without giving away the farm. Right now, they’re taking cuts across limited assortment and potentially for a limited amount of time, but as more and more egregious price rises go viral (see McDonald’s above), then there will be more pressure to give more of that back, and soon.

In the meantime, retailers will find benefit from AI. I have no doubt. It will become an arms race, especially around recommendation bots. I do think once everyone can get a 15% increase in conversion, we’ll get to the point where it’s a base expectation rather than a differentiator or even a benefit. These are low-risk things, and should not be used as a basis for calls on how “GenAI will change the world!” – whether that will happen, remains to be seen and I’m still very much a skeptic. Some things never change, and both the British consortium’s lawsuit and the quick commerce story serve as a reminder of exactly that.

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News

Breakfast on Wall Street: The Week Ahead

Published

6 months ago

14 July, 2024

FinCrypto Staff

The spotlight next week will shift somewhat to the Federal Reserve’s second-quarter earnings season and monetary policy. Market watchers will be treated to results from several major names, including Dow 30 components Goldman Sachs (GS), UnitedHealth (UNH), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and American Express (AXP), along with streaming giant Netflix (NFLX).

The Fed will still attract some attention as investors will be eager to hear from a packed lineup of central bank speakers just before the policy meeting lockout period.

In terms of the economic calendar, after fifteen days of labor market and inflation indicators, activity data will gain momentum in the form of the latest retail sales and industrial production reports.

Earnings Highlight: Monday, July 15 – Goldman Sachs (GS) and BlackRock (Black). See the full earnings calendar.

Earnings Highlight: Tuesday, July 16 – UnitedHealth (UNH), Bank of America (BAC), Progressive (PGR), Morgan Stanley (IN), PNC Financial (PNC) and JB Hunt Transport (JBHT). See the full earnings calendar.

Earnings Highlight: Wednesday, July 17 – Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), US Bancorp (USB), Morgan Children (KMI), United Airlines (UAL) and Ally Financial (ALLY). See the full earnings calendar.

Earnings Highlight: Thursday, July 18 – Netflix (NFLX), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Black stone (BX), Domino’s pizza (ZDP) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM). See the full earnings calendar.

Earnings Highlight: Friday, July 19 – American Express (AXP), Halliburton (THANKS) and Travelers (VRT (return to recoverable value)) See the full earnings calendar.

IPO Observation: Hospital and healthcare clinic operator Ardent Health Partners (TARDT), insurance service provider Twfg (TWFG) and the biotechnology company Lirum Therapeutics (LRTX) are expected to price their IPOs and begin trading next week. The analyst quiet period ends at Rectitude (RECT) to free up analysts to publish ratings.

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Trump shooting: Gold could hit record high, dollar and cryptocurrencies set to jump

Published

6 months ago

14 July, 2024

FinCrypto Staff

Police cars outside the residence of Thomas Matthew Crooks, the alleged shooter at a Trump rally on Saturday, investigate the area in Pennsylvania. In the aftermath of the incident, one rally attendee was killed, two rally attendees are in critical condition and Donald Trump suffered a non-fatal gunshot wound. The shooter is dead after being killed by the United States Secret Service. (Photo by Kyle Mazza/Anadolu via Getty Images)

Police cars outside the residence of Thomas Matthew Crooks, the suspected shooter at a Trump rally on Saturday, investigate the area in Pennsylvania. Following the incident, one rally attendee was killed, two rally attendees are in critical condition and Donald Trump suffered a non-fatal gunshot wound. The shooter is dead after being shot dead by the United States Secret Service. (Photo by Kyle Mazza/Anadolu via Getty Images)

Investors will initially favor traditional safe-haven assets and may lean toward trades more closely tied to former President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the White House after he survived an assassination attempt, according to market watchers.

“There will undoubtedly be some protectionist or safe-haven flows into Asia early this morning,” said Nick Twidale, chief market analyst at ATFX Global Markets. “I suspect gold could test all-time highs, we’ll see the yen being bought and the dollar, and flows into Treasuries as well.”

Early market commentary suggested Trump’s shooting at a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday could also prompt traders to increase his likelihood of success in the November election. His support for looser fiscal policy and higher tariffs is generally seen as likely to benefit the dollar and weaken Treasuries.

An indicator of market sentiment heading into the weekend: Bitcoin surged above $60,000, likely reflecting Trump’s pro-crypto stance.

Other assets positively linked to the so-called Trump trade include stocks of energy companies, private prisons, credit card companies and health insurers.

Traders will also be closely watching market measures of expected volatility on Monday, such as those in the tariff-sensitive Chinese yuan and Mexican peso, which have begun to price in the U.S. vote.

Trump said he was shot in the right ear after a shooting at his rally. His campaign said in a statement that he was “fine” after the incident, which prompted him to rush off the stage.

“Currencies will be the first major market on Monday in Asia to react to the weekend’s shots. There’s potential for extra volatility, and getting a clear reading could be especially difficult because liquidity will be hurt by Japan’s national holiday,” said Garfield Reynolds, Asia team leader for Bloomberg Markets Live.

Strategists had already expected a volatile run-up to the election, particularly as Democrats are still agonizing over President Joe Biden’s candidacy after his poor performance in last month’s debate raised questions about his age. Investors were also grappling with the possibility that the election could end in a drawn-out dispute or political violence.

But there is little precedent for events like those in Pennsylvania. When President Ronald Reagan was shot four decades ago, the stock market plunged before closing early. The next day, March 31, 1981, the S&P 500 rose more than 1% and benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell 9 basis points to 13.13%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Bond investors should pay particular attention as the attack is likely to boost Trump’s election chances and ultimately lead to concerns about the fiscal outlook, according to Marko Papic, chief strategist at California-based BCA Research Inc.

“The bond market must at some point become aware of President Trump’s greater chances of winning the White House than any of his rivals,” Papic wrote. “And I continue to believe that as his chances increase, so too must the likelihood of a bond market revolt.”

Kyle Rodda, senior financial markets analyst at Capital.com, said he was seeing client flows into Bitcoin and gold following the shooting.

“This news marks a turning point in American policy norms,” he said. “For markets, it means safe-haven trades, but more tilted toward non-traditional safe-havens.”

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News

Latest Business News Live Updates Today, July 11, 2024

Published

6 months ago

14 July, 2024

FinCrypto Staff

Latest Business News Live Updates Today, July 11, 2024

Follow us for stories on Bill Gates, Elon Musk, Mukesh Ambani, Gautam Adani as we bring you everything that’s happening in the business world. Follow the latest gold and silver prices here too. Stay in the know on all things business with us.

Latest news on July 11, 2024: Airtel says its new Xstream Fiber plans bundle over 350 live TV channels (Official Photo) (Reuters) Disclaimer: This is an AI-generated live blog and has not been edited by Hindustan Times staff.

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Jio Financial share price: Should you buy this Reliance group stock on Monday ahead of Q1 FY2024 results?

Published

6 months ago

14 July, 2024

FinCrypto Staff

Jio Financial share price: Should you buy this Reliance group stock on Monday ahead of Q1 FY2024 results?

Q1 2024 Results: Jio Financial Share Price will be in focus on Monday as the Reliance Group company has a fixed board meeting on July 15, 2024 to consider and approve the company’s unaudited standalone and consolidated financial results. Trust Group company informed about the Q1 2024 Results date on Wednesday last week via an exchange filing. According to stock market experts, Jio Financial Services Limited is poised to deliver impressive Q1 results for FY25 on solid operating income. They have forecast a healthy QoQ PAT for the company in Q1 FY25.

Jio Financial Services News

Speaking on the Jio Financial Services Q1 2024 results, Manish Chowdhury, Head of Research, StoxBox, said, “We believe Jio Financial Services is poised to deliver impressive results in Q1FY25 aided by its operating income, which is likely to show robust growth driven by strong investment income, which in turn should lead to healthy PAT growth on a sequential basis. Jio Financial Services continues to make strategic moves such as launching digital products and expanding its ecosystem, with a clear focus on future growth. The company has announced plans to introduce products for lending against stocks and mutual funds, leveraging Jio’s large user base, which could be a significant growth driver in the coming quarters.”

“Furthermore, with the NBFC receiving RBI approval to become a primary investment company, Jio Financial Services is well-positioned to unlock value from its investments. Overall, we expect the company to report robust numbers in the upcoming quarter,” the StoxBox expert added.

Jio Financial Stock Target Price

Speaking about the technical outlook of Jio Financial share price, Ganesh Dongre, Senior Manager, Technical Research at Anand Rathi, said, “Jio Financial Services share price is poised to make a fresh high at the ₹260 apiece level. If the stock breaks above this mark, the Reliance Group stock could make a fresh high by touching the ₹290-₹295 zone. Hence, those with Jio Finance stock in their portfolio are advised to stick to the script by keeping a stop loss at ₹205. If the stock breaks above ₹260 decisively, then one can upgrade the stop loss at ₹240 for the near-term target of ₹295.”

On the advice to new buyers regarding Jio Financial stock, Ganesh Dongre said, “New buyers are advised to wait for the breakout. Once the stock breaks above ₹260, one can buy this Reliance Group stock at the short term target of ₹295, keeping a stop loss of ₹240 apiece.”

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or brokerage firms, and not of Mint. Investors are advised to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions.

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